I think the lawsuit makes it quite possible the Big 12 stays together without OU and Texas. Again, find a partner for BYU(of similar stature) and we're fine. Especially with lawsuit money. And all the "new league" would need is time. Time for people to watch the games and realize it's a good league. And time for some members to ascend to the top and replace Texas and OU. Like US!
I really doubt it, the league cannot stop OU and UT from leaving the conference. What the lawsuit does is send both them and ESPN a message.
To OU and UT the message is simple, you did not inform the league within 24 hours that you had been contacted by the SEC. So you are paying the full leaving price, there will no negating that number down. I also believe that once both schools give their notice to leave, which they did this week, the league has to let them leave in 18 months, so the clock is ticking. But I think I saw that both OU and UT can no longer get a part of any post season money that they earn, that all goes to the conference and then the other remaining teams, so should be more money there.
To ESPN the message is clear, you tried to destroy the league, so we do not want to hear about reducing the payout to the league after OU and UT leave. You will continue to pay the rights you said you would until 2025 even when OU and UT are no longer in the league after 2023.
So OU and UT pay the buy out, and stay for 18 more months that gets up to the 21/22 seasons and 22/23 seasons, then they leave to the SEC, and the league continue to collect their rights and give it to the other 8 conference schools.
This buys the league schools time to find out what the Big 10 and Pac 12 are going to do, plus money if this whole thing goes to crap and we are outside looking in at a P5 conference.