You are correct that neither ISU or Iowa or well positioned IF things head the way of a select 30-40 team league. But then again, I very strongly believe that no college team will ultimately do well in that scenario, and it will take only about 5 years from that point and college football will be a very niche sport, and financially will start a decline as well. One of the big mistakes people are making is seeing that the contracts for media are still very large, but need to understand that 1. Attendance pre-COVID most places was dropping, 2. Last year viewership absolutely tanked in CFB, 3. Every football product non-NFL and non-college football has been an absolute and utter failure. 4. Participation in football in youth and HS has been absolutely plummeting for years.
MLB teams are making TONS of money, but nobody in their right mind would think that MLB is healthy right now.
It is a simple matter of product differentiation. CFB is a very different product from the NFL, and that is a requirement for it to be successful. If you make a league that is essentially an NFL but with less talent and skill, it is going to ultimately fail. Same goes for college basketball, but I think a lot of people in CBB seem to get this.
But people are right to call you out on thinking ISU is going to be relegated to the MAC. A team that in a 7-6 year (2019) was 21st in the nation in attendance, and had the TV viewership ISU did last year has far too much value to be in the MAC, MWC, or be absorbed by the AAC. That's why the ESPN plan was so ******* stupid. The remaining Big 12 teams at worst are absorbing the best of the AAC. That's worst case scenario, unless this sort of NFL-lite plan kicks into action in the next couple of years.