Pac-12 to decide whether to expand within a couple weeks

Cloneon

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If the Pac moves to expand, they'll probably need to look at adding more than 4. I doubt the B1G will sit around and just watch it happen. Wouldn't be surprised if that move by the Pac is followed by a similar move by the B1G with USC, UCLA, Oregon, Wash.
What'd be even more interesting is if ESPN is involved 'back channel' in this ... IF it even happens. Or is the Pac12 playing a B1G bluff? Or are they leveraging Amazon for involvement in next contract negotiation. There's so many directions this could fly and a much higher number of reasons.
 

Gunnerclone

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I think Clark is probably right that the Big Ten wants to add from ACC and ND so they will be patient, and that the idea of inviting just the marquee teams of the Pac to join the Big Ten is far fetched. I don't think invites are coming for KU and ISU unless it's just one to be #16 to ND's #15.

So let's say the Pac feels confident in that and knows that their 12 members will not be poached or that even 1-4 marquee members won't be poached...even that overconfident thinking still leaves them as the lowest payout major conference (other than possibly new look big 12) that is looking to shrink even more.

How can they possibly expand in any way with B10/SEC off the table and ACC far fetched even when ACC GoR is up?

They either stay where they are or teams like OKState, Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Kansas State are absolutely the best options they have to grow to keep up. They already have the mountain regions that have population or are growing in population. Central time zone is the only option. What are the best central time zone adds? The non-religious Big 12 schools minus WVU.

I think the prevailing assumption of every Big 10 shill that UNC and UVA would just rocket ship to the Big 10 the second they snap their fingers is weird.
 

SolarGarlic

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I think Clark is probably right that the Big Ten wants to add from ACC and ND so they will be patient, and that the idea of inviting just the marquee teams of the Pac to join the Big Ten is far fetched. I don't think invites are coming for KU and ISU unless it's just one to be #16 to ND's #15.

So let's say the Pac feels confident in that and knows that their 12 members will not be poached or that even 1-4 marquee members won't be poached...even that overconfident thinking still leaves them as the lowest payout major conference (other than possibly new look big 12) that is looking to shrink even more.

How can they possibly expand in any way with B10/SEC off the table and ACC far fetched even when ACC GoR is up?

They either stay where they are or teams like OKState, Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Kansas State are absolutely the best options they have to grow to keep up. They already have the mountain regions that have population or are growing in population. Central time zone is the only option. What are the best central time zone adds? The non-religious Big 12 schools minus WVU.

That move requires a hit to their ego, and I don't think any of the schools, presidents, conference commissioners, athletic directors, or fans are willing to take that on, even if it meant sense financially and/or competitively.
 

Cloneon

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The nut cup move (that I am expecting to happen) is the Pac-12 saying that they aren’t going to expand. The B1G and ACC would likely follow suit.
Still not the worst case scenario ... only because the timing isn't right. In 2 years, a completely different story.
 

HFCS

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That move requires a hit to their ego, and I don't think any of the schools, presidents, conference commissioners, athletic directors, or fans are willing to take that on, even if it meant sense financially and/or competitively.

Honestly it's probably the determining factor on if we end up with 4 major conferences or 2.

A strong Pac could stop the insanity and solidify these four leagues.

A weak Pac makes it more likely that the Big Ten and SEC go nuclear and carve up everybody when the timing is right.
 

JM4CY

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These have overtaken game thread as the worst of the worst. Everybody is either high on crack or down on meth, nowhere in between it seems.
Downer tone to this comment. Jeremy is a methhead. Didn’t expect to learn this in a realignment thread. 2021 is a doozy.
 

Clark

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I think Clark is probably right that the Big Ten wants to add from ACC and ND so they will be patient, and that the idea of inviting just the marquee teams of the Pac to join the Big Ten is far fetched. I don't think invites are coming for KU and ISU unless it's just one to be #16 to ND's #15.

So let's say the Pac feels confident in that and knows that their 12 members will not be poached or that even 1-4 marquee members won't be poached...even that overconfident thinking still leaves them as the lowest payout major conference (other than possibly new look big 12) that is looking to shrink even more.

How can they possibly expand in any way with B10/SEC off the table and ACC far fetched even when ACC GoR is up?

They either stay where they are or teams like OKState, Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Kansas State are absolutely the best options they have to grow to keep up. They already have the mountain regions that have population or are growing in population. Central time zone is the only option. What are the best central time zone adds? The non-religious Big 12 schools minus WVU.

This has been my assumption on what would happen from the start, I never thought the Big 10 would add unless an amazing opportunity fell in the lap and if the PAC 12 wants to be financially viable they need to have a sizeable presence in either the central or eastern timezones.

If the Pac 12 really does decide to not expand that leaves me with a lot of questions.
 

Cloneon

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I'd think the 'alliance' is a short-term middle finger to the SECESPN letting it know that it's not going to overtake anything. But when push comes to shove, there's no way the B1G is going to march in lockstep with the Pac/ACC level in terms of expansion. It's going to do what's best for the conference, and the simple fact is the B1G is operating from a much stronger position. If divvying up the remaining Big 12 schools isn't in the B1G's best interest, it's not going to happen.
Wow. That sounds eerily similar the things said when the B12 was considering expansion ... prior to the mess it's in now. While I agree with you, I only do so because the timing isn't right just yet. But, we're getting pretty darned close for the B1G to have to make a power move.
 
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AuH2O

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I think the prevailing assumption of every Big 10 shill that UNC and UVA would just rocket ship to the Big 10 the second they snap their fingers is weird.

Maybe it's not an easy decision, but if they could make the GoR work it would be a huge boost financially and still let them turn up their academic noses to their hillbilly brethren in the SEC. I think there's enough of a threat of Clemson and FSU heading to the SEC, and ND doing whatever the hell they damn well please that the ACC could be on shaky ground.
 

Beyerball

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Pac isn't going to announce adding any teams in 2 weeks...The Commish said he should know in 2 weeks or so if the recommendation is to look at expansion..

if the PAC stays at 12 their conference will be dead man walking within 5 years.. They cannot continue to just off West coast times and survive.

This is the PAC one shot to grab legit P5 programs that offer a brand new time zone TV wise.. They won't get another shot.

It is entirely feasible a rebuilt Big 12 adding BYU, Cinnci, Etc...in 10 years with streaming etc could be of more value than the PAC.
 

Carlisle Clone

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If the Pac moves to expand, they'll probably need to look at adding more than 4. I doubt the B1G will sit around and just watch it happen. Wouldn't be surprised if that move by the Pac is followed by a similar move by the B1G with USC, UCLA, Oregon, Wash.

This may have been true a few weeks ago but not with this new alliance the conferences are reporting. They set up this alliance in response to what the SEC is doing and could continue to do. No way they start poaching each other in the alliance.
 
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Cyclones1969

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Jim Delaney and Mike Slive were able to manage the egos in their respective conferences, and get the bigger name members to support and lift the lower members. As you said, both the B1G and SEC acted as rising tides that lifted all of their member schools.

Texas (and to a lesser extent OU) wanted to be selfish, and that only served to destabilize the Big 12. Their selfishness ran off Nebraska and A&M which put the conference behind the eight ball. Colorado and Mizzou recognized the instability and jumped ship instead of riding it out.

If instead, the 2010 Big 12 members had pooled their tier 3 rights, and the LHN is instead the Big 12 Network, the original Big 12 likely stays in tact. That means there are 4 marquee members to bolster the value of the league, and this version of the Big 12 is likely on similar footing to the 12 member SEC and 11 (or 12, or 13) member Big 10.

Did you watch last year when the big 10 tried that unity move to not play, and thought all the schools in the conference would join in?

Did you also see them amend their rules at least 3 times for Ohio state?

the dog that is the big 10 is wagged by the tail that is Ohio state. It used to be easy, they had more than everyone else, by a lot. Easy roads to the playoffs too. They could afford to be magnanimous with no threat to their place in line across all of the ncaa

there are real contenders to schools other than ut having more with this move from Disney.
 
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CascadeClone

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Possible outcomes:

1. Grand Alliance
They all go to 16 and face down SEC/ESPN together. These 3 of the P4 are the face of academics, student athletes, tradition, mom and apple pie (true or not, that would be the marketing pitch).
ACC takes WV
B1G takes KU & ISU
Pac12 takes OSU, KSU, Tech, and TCU

2. Non-Aggression Pact
They won't raid each other, but not going to necessarily help each other out. Pac expands to 16 (maybe 20), but ACC and B1G hold pat.

Pac12 takes ISU, OSU, KU, and Tech

3. Fake Alliance Doublecross
This is where we get a P2 superleague setup. B1G raids some Pac12, maybe even makes a play at some ACC teams and GOR be damned. ACC loses some teams to the SEC as well. SEC and B1G end up at 20 teams each, and what's left of the ACC, Big12, and Pac12 end up being 2nd tier college football.

ISU would end up in 2nd tier. You would probably have four 10 team leagues here, kind of west, southwest, midwest, and east.

None of this is going to happen any sooner than next year, and maybe a year or two after that.

I would guess that #2 is most likely situation.
 
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AppleCornCy

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I'm sorry, someone is going to have to explain to me why I'm getting dumbed out of the building here...

Cincinnati -- Former "power conference" member of the Big East. Expand east and give WVU a natural conference rival.
Houston and SMU --- Former "power conference" members of the SWC, natural fit.
BYU -- never in a "power conference" per se, but hold more clout as an Independent than as an AAC/Mtn West conference team, large fan base too.

Honorable mention for Rice, also as a former member of the SWC. We already have TCU and Baylor, and in this hypothetical we'd have BYU. Might as well add another Christian school to the mix and you could add them over Cincinnati since everyone is weird about "city" colleges being in a power conference.

This solution makes sense if we're adding teams. No directional schools (which I agree with) and only 1 or 2 at most, city colleges, which I'm sorry, I don't understand why that's weird.

Rice will never be a viable option. They’re a tiny school that was a doormat in the SWC. In 1996, the year after the SWC collapsed, they won seven games for the first time since the year before President Kennedy asked “why does Rice play Texas?”
 

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