Pac-12 to decide whether to expand within a couple weeks

[TXCyclones]

Here's a list of the R1 research universities. All B12 schools sans Baylor and TCU are on it.

List of research universities in the United States - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Here's the USNews academic rankings.

• University of Texas—Austin: 42 (tie)
• Baylor University: 76 (tie)
• Texas Christian University: 80 (tie)
• Iowa State University: 118 (tie)
• University of Kansas: 124 (tie)
• University of Oklahoma: 133 (tie)
• Kansas State University: 170 (tie)
• Oklahoma State University: 187 (tie)
• Texas Tech University: 217 (tie)
• West Virginia University: 241 (tie)

I call bs on Baylor’s academic ranking! I’ve hired BU grads only to terminate them due to being horrible at their jobs, and incapable of critical thinking skills.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Alabama hasn't and wont forever be at this level jfc.

True, and its not the 1950's where OU was dominating the football landscape either.

 

[NoCreativity]

Yes. Stillwater, Lubbock, & Manhattan have nothing on Ames.

Other than being closer to each other and an expanded PAC.

Manhattan is a carbon copy of Ames only with better geographic scenery and cleaner water.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Here is the big problem: will adding those 4 teams increase the size of their TV contract and if so how much? The prevailing opinions seem to believe that those schools do not have the value to add at a full conference membership rate, a discounted one sure but a full has yet to be said anywhere. If the PAC were to add those schools and not be able to increase their media rights significantly higher then USC is going to want to bolt so that they don't fall too far behind. If there is this allince in place that the big ten and ACC wont take them then they really wont have anywhere to go. Its very possible that the "alliance" doesn't have a problem with the PAC12 adding those big8 schools. I have been told that part of the talks have been no expansion but I'm not 100% sure if that includes the big8 or not.

The Pac-12's best move is to keep USC and Oregon (obviously), and the league simply cannot compete with the B1G on $$$. So the Pac-12's best play is to get in this Alliance with the B1G that includes some sort of non-poaching agreement. Why the B1G would agree to this, I have literally no idea. Doesn’t seem to be in their best interest. But that's what the Pac-12 wants.

So now they are in a position where they have an agreement that they won't get raided. The question is what is best for them next. Staying at 12 and doing what they have been doing? Or expanding east and trying to do something new, maybe with some mid-tier media rights on a streaming service, and playing ISU vs. OSU and Tech vs. KU at 11:00am Central. Not to mention, getting Pac-12 Network on cable packages in those states, and also drawing more eyeballs to Pac-12 (Pac-16) games between like Utah and Washington. That’s a game I wouldn’t necessarily watch now but I’d be way more likely to watch it if we were in a conference with them.

I know there is a chance the Pac-12 will decide these schools don’t add value but I have a hard time seeing that being their best move for medium or long term. If they stand pat and do nothing, they basically exist as long as the B1G says they can exist. They should at least try to make a move, zig when the B1G is zagging, and see what happens. The other schools will also have more stability at 16 if USC etc. later bail.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

So, Baylor, TCU & TTU have been irrelevant and non-existent in the B12? If I recall, each one of those schools has had at least one or two good seasons over the past few years. A lot of short terms memories here.

True Baylor and TCU were the class of the conference in 2014, got screwed out of the playoffs. Since then Baylor played in the championship game once and lost to OU, TCU has not made it back since, and TT dropped off the map after they fired Leach.

I am not saying OU has not been a very good team, they have dominated the conference winning the last 6 titles, but they have never won a playoff game, let alone a national championship, while LSU has won 2 titles in that time.

LSU is the better team for the past couple of decades.

 

[isucy86]

Ok. Back on track. How many schools would you consider viable as a new level of CFB? After starting with that number, what schools make it? And, then of course, the billion dollar question: how long does it take for these schools to lose interest because they're no longer the 'elite'?

I don't have a crystal ball.

Ideally, all the current P5 schools are realigned into four 16 team conferences. But I think that is unlikely as some elite schools would have to settle for less.

The Pac12 media rights drivers are the next key. I haven't heard USC, Oregon or Washington's AD's commit to being in the Pac12 beyond their current contract expiration in 2023/24. So I assume they are in play with with the Big10 or SEC until we hear a statement confirming they are in the Pac12 beyond 2023/24 FY.

If there is a big shake-up in the P5. I don't really see that happening for about 10 years. The main thing that could speed that up, is a break-up of the ACC. If Clemson, Florida State and UNC can somehow break their ACC GOR. The template for that could be shown if OU & UT can figure a way out of their Big12 agreement prior to the end of the Big12 GOR.

If there is shift in CFB to a mini-NFL, it seems like 36-40 schools would be the sweet spot. That is based on a 12 team playoff. And we see an elimination of CCG's when that happens. I think there has to be around 40 teams, because people aren't going to want to see 7-5 or 6-6 teams make the playoff.

IMO the networks are willing to sacrifice some interest by going from 65 to 40 schools, if that means better matchups and higher viewership (hence higher ad rates). The reality is ESPN or FOX would rather not have Ohio State vs. Purdue if they can have Ohio State v Nebraska.

The curve ball is a media player like Amazon. With the current media rights model, the big players like FOX and ESPN make their money from carriage fees, advertising time and to a much lesser degree subscription fees. And go forward, those platforms seem limited to those revenue streams.

But a platform like Amazon is different. It can charge customers subscription fees and earns advertising revenue. But where Amazon can be different is direct purchase of products they make margin on. So if customers watching football buy groceries, electronics, bet on games through the Amazon portal- that is a game changer. Fox and ESPN may be able to easily replicate certain aspects of the Amazon model like sports betting, but other merchandise might be harder. If Amazon gets involved that may mean conferences like AAC, Mountain West, etc. have value because they bring consumers who might spend $500 a month to the platform.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Ideally, all the current P5 schools are realigned into four 16 team conferences. But I think that is unlikely as some elite schools would have to settle for less.

Seven 10-team conferences - there’s room for 70 “Power” teams, which is plenty. Allows for true geographic/historic rivalries. Round-robin for football with 3 non-con games, double round-robin for basketball.

CFP has eight teams - the 7 “true” conference champions plus one at-large, for that unexpected outlier to get in.

That‘s perfection. Too bad the monster blue bloods can’t pull in their $100 million per year in this scenario, even though college football as a whole would be tremendously improved, long-term sustainable, and drawing widespread intense fan interest.

Yes, I know, fantasy land …

 

[cayin]

True Baylor and TCU were the class of the conference in 2014, got screwed out of the playoffs. Since then Baylor played in the championship game once and lost to OU, TCU has not made it back since, and TT dropped off the map after they fired Leach.

I am not saying OU has not been a very good team, they have dominated the conference winning the last 6 titles, but they have never won a playoff game, let alone a national championship, while LSU has won 2 titles in that time.

LSU is the better team for the past couple of decades.

Decades? JFC, the Big 12 South was the best division in college football for number years. OU had to beat a lot of good teams to do what they have done. You are short selling the Big 12 OU has played in. I contend the Big 12 was probably the best conference or at least the second best conference overall from 2005 through 2012, heck I would even say up to 2014. Look at TCU in 2014, they beat the second place team in the SEC 41-3 and it would have been a lot worse had Patterson not call off the dogs.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I don't have a crystal ball.

Ideally, all the current P5 schools are realigned into four 16 team conferences. But I think that is unlikely as some elite schools would have to settle for less.

The Pac12 media rights drivers are the next key. I haven't heard USC, Oregon or Washington's AD's commit to being in the Pac12 beyond their current contract expiration in 2023/24. So I assume they are in play with with the Big10 or SEC until we hear a statement confirming they are in the Pac12 beyond 2023/24 FY.

If there is a big shake-up in the P5. I don't really see that happening for about 10 years. The main thing that could speed that up, is a break-up of the ACC. If Clemson, Florida State and UNC can somehow break their ACC GOR. The template for that could be shown if OU & UT can figure a way out of their Big12 agreement prior to the end of the Big12 GOR.

If there is shift in CFB to a mini-NFL, it seems like 36-40 schools would be the sweet spot. That is based on a 12 team playoff. And we see an elimination of CCG's when that happens. I think there has to be around 40 teams, because people aren't going to want to see 7-5 or 6-6 teams make the playoff.

IMO the networks are willing to sacrifice some interest by going from 65 to 40 schools, if that means better matchups and higher viewership (hence higher ad rates). The reality is ESPN or FOX would rather not have Ohio State vs. Purdue if they can have Ohio State v Nebraska.

The curve ball is a media player like Amazon. With the current media rights model, the big players like FOX and ESPN make their money from carriage fees, advertising time and to a much lesser degree subscription fees. And go forward, those platforms seem limited to those revenue streams.

But a platform like Amazon is different. It can charge customers subscription fees and earns advertising revenue. But where Amazon can be different is direct purchase of products they make margin on. So if customers watching football buy groceries, electronics, bet on games through the Amazon portal- that is a game changer. Fox and ESPN may be able to easily replicate certain aspects of the Amazon model like sports betting, but other merchandise might be harder. If Amazon gets involved that may mean conferences like AAC, Mountain West, etc. have value because they bring consumers who might spend $500 a month to the platform.

I tend to agree that this will all come to a head in 2035, and it will be interesting to see if the Big 10 and Pac 12 have their media rights also running out at that time?

The question that no one seems to want to answer is "if this 30 or 40 team super conference is formed, which schools are going to make it up?" Is it going to be centered around ALL Big 10 and SEC members which would put you at 30 and then filling in with the best of the rest to get to 40. Or is it going to be the best 40 schools regardless of their current conference?

Not sure the blue bloods are going to be willing to dish out equal shares to the Vanderbilt's, Rutgers's and the Purdue's of both the big 10 and SEC when they are leaving out schools like OSU and others that have a very desirable football product to sell.

If they go with its all Big 10 and Sec schools, then add Florida State, Clemson, Miami, USC, Oregon, Washington, and ND, that only leaves 3 spots open for a lot of very good teams. Schools like OSU, UNC, Stanford, UCLA, and a bunch of other decent teams will be fighting over those spots while schools like Maryland and Illinois are grandfathered into the league. Now its possible some schools might want to opt out like Northwestern, but there will not be more than a few of those if any.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Decades? JFC, the Big 12 South was the best division in college football for number years. OU had to beat a lot of good teams to do what they have done. You are short selling the Big 12 OU has played in. I contend the Big 12 was probably the best conference or at least the second best conference overall from 2005 through 2012, heck I would even say up to 2014. Look at TCU in 2014, they beat the second place team in the SEC 41-3 and it would have been a lot worse had Patterson not call off the dogs.

Maybe, but in that time line 2005 through 2012, the only team from the Big 12 to win the national title was the Vince Young UT team, while the SEC won the other 7 titles, 2 by Florida, 1 by LSU, 1 by Auburn and 3 by Alabama.

So 4 different teams out of the SEC won the national championship a total of 7 times while the Big 12 had a team win it once. Looking at the data, this is not even debatable. No matter how much we love the Big 12 and ISU, we are far behind the SEC along with everyone else.

If you want to go back another 10 years to 1995, the Big 12 had 3 national champs, 1 by OU and 2 by Nebraska, while the SEC also had 3, 1 by Florida, 1 by Tennessee and 1 by LSU. Both conferences had teams during that 10 year span that shared the national championship.

FBS Football Championship History | NCAA.com

 

[jdoggivjc]

I call bs on Baylor’s academic ranking! I’ve hired BU grads only to terminate them due to being horrible at their jobs, and incapable of critical thinking skills.

While I would call BS on Baylor’s ranking as well, your reasoning is flawed. No school would ever be ranked on its graduates ability to do a job post-grad or the critical thinking skills of said grads.

 

[blackuniforms]

Alabama hasn't and wont forever be at this level jfc.

This is why the other conferences are looking at more than the last few years when considering ISU.

 

[isucy86]

I tend to agree that this will all come to a head in 2035, and it will be interesting to see if the Big 10 and Pac 12 have their media rights also running out at that time?

The question that no one seems to want to answer is "if this 30 or 40 team super conference is formed, which schools are going to make it up?" Is it going to be centered around ALL Big 10 and SEC members which would put you at 30 and then filling in with the best of the rest to get to 40. Or is it going to be the best 40 schools regardless of their current conference?

Not sure the blue bloods are going to be willing to dish out equal shares to the Vanderbilt's, Rutgers's and the Purdue's of both the big 10 and SEC when they are leaving out schools like OSU and others that have a very desirable football product to sell.

If they go with its all Big 10 and Sec schools, then add Florida State, Clemson, Miami, USC, Oregon, Washington, and ND, that only leaves 3 spots open for a lot of very good teams. Schools like OSU, UNC, Stanford, UCLA, and a bunch of other decent teams will be fighting over those spots while schools like Maryland and Illinois are grandfathered into the league. Now its possible some schools might want to opt out like Northwestern, but there will not be more than a few of those if any.

IMO if we see a 36-40 team league, it will be made up of the 40 best schools from a media value/quality of athletic programs.

It could be an opportunity for a number of private schools to step back from the arms race that is college football and play at a level that is still high, but not top 20 level. Schools like Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Baylor, TCU, Vanderbilt. Also large state schools might also fit into that group like Illinois, Purdue, Kansas, WVU, K-State, I-State, Tech, Colorado, Cal, Miss State, Syracuse, Louisville, Ga Tech, etc.

 

[AppleCornCy]

Maybe, but in that time line 2005 through 2012, the only team from the Big 12 to win the national title was the Vince Young UT team, while the SEC won the other 7 titles, 2 by Florida, 1 by LSU, 1 by Auburn and 3 by Alabama.

So 4 different teams out of the SEC won the national championship a total of 7 times while the Big 12 had a team win it once. Looking at the data, this is not even debatable. No matter how much we love the Big 12 and ISU, we are far behind the SEC along with everyone else.

If you want to go back another 10 years to 1995, the Big 12 had 3 national champs, 1 by OU and 2 by Nebraska, while the SEC also had 3, 1 by Florida, 1 by Tennessee and 1 by LSU. Both conferences had teams during that 10 year span that shared the national championship.

FBS Football Championship History | NCAA.com

In the middle of the 2000s the SEC inexplicably went from being a very good conference more or less on par with the other power conferences to being THE premier conference. It still doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me how that happened.

The media wanted a Michigan-Ohio State rematch in 2006 and then both got destroyed in their bowl games by USC and Florida respectively. Since then, every one-loss and two-loss SEC team gets the benefit of the doubt over everybody else. In most of those seven straight title years for the SEC, the BCS gave the SEC team the nod over somebody else.

 

[IceCyIce]

You are not looking at the bigger picture here.

Ok let's say



Yes it adds value.

Avg per team payout in the PAC is around $31 mil...

It is a matter of if any of the A8 bring up the average. I can assure you Okie st, TT, WV, KU, ISU would be valued higher than 6 or more PAC schools TV wise.. Therefore the A8 schools bring up the average and that is all that matters.

The PAC is in process or getting ready to negotiate next round of TV deals (2023/24)...

It isn't like the PAC is adding 'X' number of teams and the contract will stay the same. You realize this right?

Now add in an entirely new time zone. I don't think some realize just how big of deal this is.

As for Bowlsby...I agree with you. IMO he should have been fired immediately. Wts...It wasn't Bowlsby who first said the "worth" of the A8 is 75% less... it was Sportswriters from sources from ESPN in a tactical move to try to convince the A8 to go to the AAC..

At first it was "A8 will lose 75%" of its value.

Now it is a consensus of "50%"....

Think about the value of the new PAC contract and ratings for Oregon and USC if they play 4-5 games a year in central time zone? Increasing the ratings and value of those brands "X" amount.

There are many factors at play.

So what your saying is that the Big needs to add KS and ISU ASAP to block the Central time zone, reducing the value of the PAC then in 5-10 years go get USC, Wash, Ore. That sound good to me.

 

[Rods79]

The Pac-12's best move is to keep USC and Oregon (obviously), and the league simply cannot compete with the B1G on $$$. So the Pac-12's best play is to get in this Alliance with the B1G that includes some sort of non-poaching agreement. Why the B1G would agree to this, I have literally no idea. Doesn’t seem to be in their best interest. But that's what the Pac-12 wants.

So now they are in a position where they have an agreement that they won't get raided. The question is what is best for them next. Staying at 12 and doing what they have been doing? Or expanding east and trying to do something new, maybe with some mid-tier media rights on a streaming service, and playing ISU vs. OSU and Tech vs. KU at 11:00am Central. Not to mention, getting Pac-12 Network on cable packages in those states, and also drawing more eyeballs to Pac-12 (Pac-16) games between like Utah and Washington. That’s a game I wouldn’t necessarily watch now but I’d be way more likely to watch it if we were in a conference with them.

I know there is a chance the Pac-12 will decide these schools don’t add value but I have a hard time seeing that being their best move for medium or long term. If they stand pat and do nothing, they basically exist as long as the B1G says they can exist. They should at least try to make a move, zig when the B1G is zagging, and see what happens. The other schools will also have more stability at 16 if USC etc. later bail.

You briefly touch on the fact that most everyone is missing while they are counting the nickels and dimes that each program individually brings in. People are looking at these teams in a bubble, in most cases their own individual bubble and now in a non-existent conference bubble…sometimes a heavily skewed data point bubble ala Stewart Mandel to feed an ESPN narrative…but it’s likely the viewership of the whole conference would rise with the added quality inventory. This is the “uncertainty”.

 

[nfrine]

Manhattan is a carbon copy of Ames only with better geographic scenery and cleaner water.

The City of Ames calls BS on the water comment...



Almost forgot this...https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5z9iv8

 

[IceCyIce]

..... When Iowa played Arizona or AZ St. many years ago, IA got pounded, one of the worst losses of the special K era. He said were never coming out west again. I get the whole it's only an hour extra by plane but it was obviously pretty hard on the kids/players. There must be more to the western time zone that meets the eyes. Granted that was one team and many years ago but if put to a vote by coaches, they may not want the far west schools?

 

[BCClone]

The City of Ames calls BS on the water comment...

He also must think sand dunes with tumbleweeds looks better than cornfields.

 

[BCClone]

..... When Iowa played Arizona or AZ St. many years ago, IA got pounded, one of the worst losses of the special K era. He said were never coming out west again. I get the whole it's only an hour extra by plane but it was obviously pretty hard on the kids/players. There must be more to the western time zone that meets the eyes. Granted that was one team and many years ago but if put to a vote by coaches, they may not want the far west schools?

The issue was speed, kirk had slow, ploddy players and the west schools were running right by them. I think Kkkirk also got confused with the AZ time situation. He couldn't remember if he should be one or two hours behind in AZ and they were late one time and extremely early the next and he just got mad and refused to go back out there.