Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[WhoISthis]

Well 45 is always more than 43.

Boise is relevant because people still remember they beat Oklahoma

just like Iowa State is more relevant because we have won 32 games the last 4 years with wins against Oklahoma and Texas than they were since the 70’s

Of course that has nothing to do with the current staff. But no one gave a **** about Iowa State football before the previous 4 years.

Good, so why did you object to going with option 1 over 2?

Do you think boise st has a chance to play, let alone beat, OU if 4-8?

You know why they didn’t give a ****? Too many 4-8 seasons rather than 8 or 9 win seasons.Think about that

 

[Win5002]

Absolutely. It’s been coming. We’ve all have talked another the super 64.

That was before SEC hegemony. And UT sucking and not wielding their power. Them joining the SEC opposed to acting like a true kingmaker and building the Big 12, reduced the number.

That’s huge in short term for the networks. Is there any wonder espn was all over the move? 3 to 4 super conferences totaling 64 is more expensive.

I think the BIG may be idyllic enough to try and preserve the Pac12 by adding a Pac12 side to their network. They can allow the Pac12 survive mostly in tact, saving some semblance of value and history in the Rose Bowl, while adding the elite academic brands.

The only thing they give up is the opportunity cost of making more if they only added a few Pac12 or ACC teams, but the travel would suck, and I don’t think you can get just one NC school, so there’s redundancy there.

it Wouldn’t surprise me if the Big 12 loses KU to big 10 (cross matchup with MU) but ends up with one of the Arizona schools and/or Utah, (SDSU over Boise because of this) plus leftover ACC like Louisville (maybe BIG for the IU rivalry and cross matchup with UK), Pitt (maybe SEC with cross matchup with PSU), Miami, GT (unlikely BIG, but maybe).

Either way, the big 8 sticking together is good, it basically guarantees it’s Oregon St/WSU/wake/Syracuse/BC that are either getting left out or are satellites

It was never going to be a P40 or P48 in a separate division because you can't tell that many fan bases they don't matter and expect them to watch a P40 or P48. CFB is not near as popular as the NFL.

It seems like they will move 40-48 programs in a P2 and then 2-3 other leagues that allows them to have 72-80 programs in the hierarchy in some form. The schools in the other 2-3 leagues feel like they are in the club but at a big disadvantage revenue wise. The schools that come from the AAC & MWC get a big pay raise but any schools from the B12, ACC & PAC 12 that get left behind stay about the same which is the same as declining because a league expects a new deal to jump in value quite a bit. Especially when you compare the deal to the B1G/SEC.

Hopefully, after 10-15 years of this some schools wake up and realize their brand has taken a hit due to conference changes and there is maybe a discussion of going back to more regionalized conferences with equalized payouts.

 

[AuH2O]

I could be completely off base here, but I think the PAC 12 screwed themselves when they passed on expansion.

If THEY had taken UCin, UCF, UMem & UH we would be in trouble. (with only 8 teams and 1 good prospect)
If they had taken TT, OSU, KSU, TCU we would be dead.

Now the PAC is under the gun and if they lose CU or USC/OU to the B1G they don't have any quality teams to fill the gaps. We took most of the good & marginal teams.

If PAC loses CU that is not a big deal. They could just not expand or grab a big 12 team. If it loses USC and Oregon the conference is toast and is probably ripe for poaching from the Big 12. If it loses only USC OR Oregon, then I think it would try to poach a package of Big 12 teams, but it probably loses a ton of leverage in requiring new members to give up media dollars.

 

[WhoISthis]

It was never going to be a P40 or P48 in a separate division because you can't tell that many fan bases they don't matter and expect them to watch a P40 or P48. CFB is not near as popular as the NFL.

It seems like they will move 40-48 programs in a P2 and then 2-3 other leagues that allows them to have 72-80 programs in the hierarchy in some form. The schools in the other 2-3 leagues feel like they are in the club but at a big disadvantage revenue wise. The schools that come from the AAC & MWC get a big pay raise but any schools from the B12, ACC & PAC 12 that get left behind stay about the same which is the same as declining because a league expects a new deal to jump in value quite a bit. Especially when you compare the deal to the B1G/SEC.

Hopefully, after 10-15 years of this some schools wake up and realize their brand has taken a hit due to conference changes and there is maybe a discussion of going back to more regionalized conferences with equalized payouts.

You can if it happens gradually.

Whether 40 to 48 formally split at first, or take fodder with them, I’m not sure matters. Once there’s a P2 with NLI, likely a pay to play of some sorts, gradually the success delta will have others lose fans and interest. It’s already occurring in some ways, and how the SEC has pulled OuT.

Having a segregation of a P2, a huge gap, then 2 or 3 conferences, then a smaller gap, one or two conferences is the chloroform to P32-P48

 

[HFCS]

I don't think this 12 will stay together...but if it did (barring horrible coaching hires) I think BYU probably elevates a ton to the point where they are considered the brand team within a decade or two. Any of the other teams could get close to it but they'll need a Snyder type of perfect decades long hire. Gundy maybe the closest thing right now, we all hope for Campbell but who knows.

BYU puts 20k more in the stands than Utah every Saturday. They're the most popular football team in the fastest growing state and the pro teams (Jazz, MLS soccer) are not direct competitors.

 

[HFCS]

If PAC loses CU that is not a big deal. They could just not expand or grab a big 12 team. If it loses USC and Oregon the conference is toast and is probably ripe for poaching from the Big 12. If it loses only USC OR Oregon, then I think it would try to poach a package of Big 12 teams, but it probably loses a ton of leverage in requiring new members to give up media dollars.

Pac and ACC are in similar situations as Big 12 if they lose top 2. USC/Oregon and Clemson/FSU are OU/Texas. None of them might bring as much $ as Texas but the impact on overall money, winning and eyeballs would be similar.

I'm not sure their leftovers have the same average fan support as the Big 12 leftovers. Which #3 team in those conferences can match OK State/Baylor/TCU in top 10 or top 25 finishes in the past decade? By pure numbers most don't compare in attendance/ticket sales, that's new Big 12 or remaining 8.

 

[AuH2O]

You can if it happens gradually.

Whether 40 to 48 formally split at first, or take fodder with them, I’m not sure matters. Once there’s a P2 with NLI, likely a pay to play of some sorts, gradually the success delta will have others lose fans and interest. It’s already occurring in some ways, and how the SEC has pulled OuT.

Having a segregation of a P2, a huge gap, then 2 or 3 conferences, then a smaller gap, one or two conferences is the chloroform to P32-P48

Whether it happens instantly or as a slow-drip, it isn't going to magically make people of relegated teams watch. Regardless of how it happens, every fan at some point is going to decide that their team is not at the real big-boy level and they lose interest. When that happens very few are going to simultaneously decide they're going to adopt a new favorite team in the P32-48.

 

[WhoISthis]

If PAC loses CU that is not a big deal. They could just not expand or grab a big 12 team. If it loses USC and Oregon the conference is toast and is probably ripe for poaching from the Big 12. If it loses only USC OR Oregon, then I think it would try to poach a package of Big 12 teams, but it probably loses a ton of leverage in requiring new members to give up media dollars.

Given they were behind the Big 12 pre OuT, if they lose USC and Oregon, I think it’s hunting season for the Big 12.

Just USC becomes interesting, i have no clue how that goes. I think it’s unlikely just USC is the next steps, so maybe basically a full merger under a new brand with the pac12 network used?

 

[BCClone]

Pac and ACC are in similar situations as Big 12 if they lose top 2. USC/Oregon and Clemson/FSU are OU/Texas. None of them might bring as much $ as Texas but the impact on overall money, winning and eyeballs would be similar.

I'm not sure their leftovers have the same average fan support as the Big 12 leftovers. Which #3 team in those conferences can match OK State/Baylor/TCU in top 10 or top 25 finishes in the past decade? By pure numbers most don't compare in attendance/ticket sales, that's new Big 12 or remaining 8.

I would say the new big 12 is better off than ACC or PAC 12 if they lost their top two. The fan support seems a little stronger.

 

[Win5002]

I don’t think anything was decided, other than avoiding prisoners dilemma mistakes.

Unequal revenue sharing solves the number of additions issue, and would be a win-win imo. An opportunity cost for the BIG, but one they can afford and may be willing to give up to add the academic elite plus persevere regionalism/history and avoid schedule/travel issues. My guess is the Pac12 side rolled into the big 10 network could get to 50 million. USC may want equal but their alternative is the SEC on an island or staying put

Plus, if they want UNC, UVa, but need to get NCSt and Duke, there’s some similar redundancy and opportunity cost to the ACC side.

The B1G rolling the PAC into their conference network is interesting and I'm sure they would do a buy in, but the state of Oregon has 2 schools, so does Washington, even Arizona has 2 schools and as big as California is splitting it 4 ways might be a little too much with all their pro sports and outdoor activities.

Honestly, I think a PAC/B12 combined network makes more sense. The PAC makes nothing right now, the Big 12 is adding 3 pretty good markets and a decent national draw in BYU.

In regards to the ACC, I don't think the B1G has to take NC St. if they have a home in the SEC. If NC St. would have been left behind thats a problem. If NC St. wanted to go SEC and NC wanted to remain in the ACC, I think that would be a problem also.

If NC is finally ready to surrender the ACC and the B1G takes NC, Va., Duke plus maybe one more Ga. Tech or Miami
and the SEC takes FSU, Clemson, NC St. & Va Tech. I think that is solved.

It may not be a solid chance but if I was Pollard I would try and position myself with KU and Neb. to be talking to the SEC hoping the end game is 24 spots because I think the B1G is going to fill up with ACC/PAC schools. Nebraska in the B1G hasn't worked that well. If the B1G adds states like NC, Va. & California it gives Nebraska more places to recruit but its still not like the SEC foot print. If Nebraska could ever get back to winning big its a solid tv draw and I wouldn't sleep on Nebraska's ability to compete in a NIL world.

 

[WhoISthis]

I don't think this 12 will stay together...but if it did (barring horrible coaching hires) I think BYU probably elevates a ton to the point where they are considered the brand team within a decade or two. Any of the other teams could get close to it but they'll need a Snyder type of perfect decades long hire. Gundy maybe the closest thing right now, we all hope for Campbell but who knows.

BYU puts 20k more in the stands than Utah every Saturday. They're the most popular football team in the fastest growing state and the pro teams (Jazz, MLS soccer) are not direct competitors.

How’s the local recruiting?

I think UCF has a great chance to surpass FSU. Second in FL > than 1st in Utah

 

[knowlesjam]

It was never going to be a P40 or P48 in a separate division because you can't tell that many fan bases they don't matter and expect them to watch a P40 or P48. CFB is not near as popular as the NFL.

It seems like they will move 40-48 programs in a P2 and then 2-3 other leagues that allows them to have 72-80 programs in the hierarchy in some form. The schools in the other 2-3 leagues feel like they are in the club but at a big disadvantage revenue wise. The schools that come from the AAC & MWC get a big pay raise but any schools from the B12, ACC & PAC 12 that get left behind stay about the same which is the same as declining because a league expects a new deal to jump in value quite a bit. Especially when you compare the deal to the B1G/SEC.

Hopefully, after 10-15 years of this some schools wake up and realize their brand has taken a hit due to conference changes and there is maybe a discussion of going back to more regionalized conferences with equalized payouts.

Yet you are already setting the stage for an NFL-like Saturday with the BIG and SEC. 30 team...likely 32 in a couple of years...marketed with 11 AM, 3 PM, and 7 PM kicks...5 or 6 games in each slot (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, Fox, FS1). Eventually it cements in and that becomes the public norm. The other leagues play, but they become more like the lower division games...regional coverage on TV/Cable or streaming.

Still good games in the other divisions, and who cares when teams like Rutgers, Illinois, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, etc. play. And to think it all could have been worked out with 4 conferences of 16...heck, even 5 conferences of 16, with minimal muss/fuss. We soon are going to be at 5 conferences with 16, 14, 14, 12, and 12. But, no, ESPN and the SEC decided to "go for it" and break the bank/system. Maybe we can still get there...

 

[HFCS]

Given they were behind the Big 12 pre OuT, if they lose USC and Oregon, I think it’s hunting season for the Big 12.

Just USC becomes interesting, i have no clue how that goes. I think it’s unlikely just USC is the next steps, so maybe basically a full merger under a new brand with the pac12 network used?

I wonder if just USC is the homerun that it's USC/ND with some sort of scheduling deal where they keep playing.

Not that they need to be in the same conference to play each other. Just thinking of any reason that only USC would join Big Ten without other pac teams. It still seems kind of crazy unless it's football only for them to be the ONLY west coast school, Eugene Oregon isn't exactly close to LA, the Pac has always been a ton of travel other than each team's one local rival.

It's also a TON of tv/streaming money while only cutting pie two more ways. If those are the two adds do they really need any more $? It leaves the other 3 conferences mostly in tact without creating NFL Jr SEC/Big Ten but also pretty much guarantees the Pac/B12/ACC are permanently behind Big Ten/SEC.

 

[HFCS]

How’s the local recruiting?

I think UCF has a great chance to surpass FSU. Second in FL > than 1st in Utah

They get a boost from Polynesian recruits and the forced redshirt year making their team older on average.

I'm not arguing UCF could explode. Scott Frost can't beat really bad teams in the Big Ten and had an undefeated UCF team. It's obviously set up for success beyond what American conference could max out.

 

[WhoISthis]

The B1G rolling the PAC into their conference network is interesting and I'm sure they would do a buy in, but the state of Oregon has 2 schools, so does Washington, even Arizona has 2 schools and as big as California is splitting it 4 ways might be a little too much with all their pro sports and outdoor activities.

Honestly, I think a PAC/B12 combined network makes more sense. The PAC makes nothing right now, the Big 12 is adding 3 pretty good markets and a decent national draw in BYU.

In regards to the ACC, I don't think the B1G has to take NC St. if they have a home in the SEC. If NC St. would have been left behind thats a problem. If NC St. wanted to go SEC and NC wanted to remain in the ACC, I think that would be a problem also.

If NC is finally ready to surrender the ACC and the B1G takes NC, Va., Duke plus maybe one more Ga. Tech or Miami
and the SEC takes FSU, Clemson, NC St. & Va Tech. I think that is solved.

It may not be a solid chance but if I was Pollard I would try and position myself with KU and Neb. to be talking to the SEC hoping the end game is 24 spots because I think the B1G is going to fill up with ACC/PAC schools. Nebraska in the B1G hasn't worked that well. If the B1G adds states like NC, Va. & California it gives Nebraska more places to recruit but its still not like the SEC foot print. If Nebraska could ever get back to winning big its a solid tv draw and I wouldn't sleep on Nebraska's ability to compete in a NIL world.

My guess, just a guess, is it would be 8 or 9 from Pac12, 8 if they think they can pull only UNC and Duke. 9 if otherwise, and they add KU.

California 4, UW, Oregon, CU, plus at least one of Utah, Zona, ASU. KU is added if they can't get any basketball public Ivys. Which due to state politics, (bathroom bill) I think end up SEC.

The Pac12 9 plus KU added to NU and likely Iowa on the Pac12 side. Iowa and NU at BIG pay, Pac12 boosted past any other option they have. 6-team pod scheduling, and Iowa gets **** on, likely being with NU, KU, CU, and two of AZ, ASU, and Utah, but they'll likely win it most years.


I think the networks would love to just move Oregon and USC to the BIG or SEC, then roll the Pac12 and Big 12 together, eventually the leftover ACC teams perhaps. Or just let the leftover Pac12 teams backfill with SDSU and Boise, be a clear 5th in the P5, until the ACC get picked over. So it would be a P2, Big 12, Pac 12, and ACC merged with AAC.I don't see the non-P2s stabilizing at that. They'd gravitate towards forming a distant P3, with BC, Syracuse, Wake, WSU and Oregon St left out.

I just don't see the conference presidents going for adding just two Pac12 teams. When you're the wealthiest conferences you can afford to say no. And let's be real, no one cared about the new kid Big 12, but I think the BIG is more hesitant to killing the Pac12 if they can preserve it without losing money (unequal revenue sharing when rolling it under the Big 10 Network)

 

[WhoISthis]

I wonder if just USC is the homerun that it's USC/ND with some sort of scheduling deal where they keep playing.

Not that they need to be in the same conference to play each other. Just thinking of any reason that only USC would join Big Ten without other pac teams. It still seems kind of crazy unless it's football only for them to be the ONLY west coast school, Eugene Oregon isn't exactly close to LA, the Pac has always been a ton of travel other than each team's one local rival.

It's also a TON of tv/streaming money while only cutting pie two more ways. If those are the two adds do they really need any more $? It leaves the other 3 conferences mostly in tact without creating NFL Jr SEC/Big Ten but also pretty much guarantees the Pac/B12/ACC are permanently behind Big Ten/SEC.

Some way, somehow, both the SEC and BIG are dreaming of luring ND with USC. First to the door with a sweet alliance, then kidnapped once they've added enough other programs there is no independent option.

 

[BCClone]

Some way, somehow, both the SEC and BIG are dreaming of luring ND with USC. First to the door with a sweet alliance, then kidnapped once they've added enough other programs there is no independent option.

ND will always have an independent option. Especially if USC goes that way. You have the service academies, plus the big 12 would play them I'm sure. Sprinkle in a few other teams looking for a good Non con and ND would have no trouble. USC could probably play several of the same teams but in the off years from ND.

 

[Win5002]

If PAC loses CU that is not a big deal. They could just not expand or grab a big 12 team. If it loses USC and Oregon the conference is toast and is probably ripe for poaching from the Big 12. If it loses only USC OR Oregon, then I think it would try to poach a package of Big 12 teams, but it probably loses a ton of leverage in requiring new members to give up media dollars.

Its highly likely the PAC didn't expand because they would lose USC. If you have 1-2 top heavy brands in a league and the additions are not big regional rivals or close to a blue blood school the schools at the top typically don't want the expansion.

The B12 needed to expand after it lost UT & OU, and now the remaining schools are a lot closer in value so its not as hard to expand because you are not diluting the payout by a large amount.

If USC wasn't on the far west coast, they would have probably already been gone or soon to be gone. They may still be leaving if the B1G can get NC, Va & ND. Then I think USC might leave with as few as 3 other west coast schools maybe 4 and Colorado. Maybe unequal revenue sharing can make the PAC stay together since they are such an outlier due to geography.

 

[WhoISthis]

ND will always have an independent option. Especially if USC goes that way. You have the service academies, plus the big 12 would play them I'm sure. Sprinkle in a few other teams looking for a good Non con and ND would have no trouble. USC could probably play several of the same teams but in the off years from ND.

they will always have the option, it is just whether that option is at the top tier.

If the BIG and SEC got to 20+, with NIL and pay-to-play, what happens if they don't reserve a spot for ND in whatever postseason competition they form? ND may alliance with the BIG just to try an prevent that (segregation) from happening.

 

[HFCS]

I would say the new big 12 is better off than ACC or PAC 12 if they lost their top two. The fan support seems a little stronger.

Using attendance only to judge overall interest and actual eyeballs that care, I realize it still isn't the indicator of legacy media cable tv deals. I do think it's as good as any indicator we have for who will pay to stream and football attendance does boost the overall athletic dept funding/success.

Leftover Pac:
Oregon St 32k
Washington St 29k
UCLA 44k
Cal 42K
Stanford 37k
AZ 40k
AZst 49k
Colorado 50k
Utah 46k
(USC, Oregon, Washington left out, just guessing order of who is most desired by Big Ten or SEC)
Average: 41K


Leftover ACC:
BC 34k
Syracuse 42k
Pitt 43k
Louisville 50k (maybe biggest surprise looking these up)
Duke 26k
GTech 45k
Miami 53k
NC State 56k
VA 48k
VTech 58k
Wake Forest 27K
(UNC, FSU, Clemson left out, just guessing order of who is most desired by Big Ten or SEC)
Average: 40K

New Big 12:
ISU 60k
KSU 49k
KU 34k
OKState 55k
Baylor 46k
TTech 53k
TCU 43k
WVU 56k
BYU 60k
Houston 26k
Cinci 36k
UCF 44k
Average: 47k

B12/ACC/Pac will all lose a little attendance with marquee teams leaving...the new Big 12 four already included will probably see attendance boost over their current number but it'll be neutralized in that Baylor/TCU might lose more home gate than anybody in all of this.