2017 TCU disagrees. They were 10-2 going into the championship game against 11-1 OU and got the Alamo Bowl. I have my doubts the Big 12 will get a second top 12 team. SEC or Big 10 team is getting it
You could be right. The CfP rankings are based on making the four top teams look as good as possible. The Big 12 isn’t going to have one of the top 4 teams most likely.