NET Rankings are Flawed

[AuH2O]

More likely then end up with more/even:
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True road wins vs TCU and OSU are going to stay Q1. True road games are 75. Neutral is 50. In fact I don’t see many close for us up or down. @WVU could drop to Q2, and OU at home could end up as quad 1, but since they are 38 if ISU wins it’s probably going to stay a Q2, if OU wins and they keep winning it could end up Q1.

 

[DSM4Cy]

Houston will be a fascinating case for seeding. Their NET/KenPom/Sagarin rankings put them in 1-2 seed territory with 0 Q1 wins, which is crazy. If you look at their actual resume, they’ve only earned maybe a 10 or 11 seed. How there can be that big of a disparity is wild. Teams should be seeded based on who you’ve beaten and who you’ve lost to, as well as overall record. They have 4 losses so it’s not like they’re undefeated or something. Loyola, Murray State, and Colorado State all have better resumes but are likely to be seeded much lower. We also have a significantly better resume than Houston and it’s not even close, but we’re on the 10-11 line in people like Lunardi’s bracketology…

 

[DSM4Cy]

Also, how Iowa can be considered a lock and seeded higher than us is just unacceptable. Their resume currently says First Four or NIT, but people have them on the 5-6 line in many brackets. There are a bunch of teams with resumes that are wildly different than their NET ratings right now - including us, Wisconsin, Miami, and Creighton to name a few. I think we should be a 6 right now based on really digging into who you’ve beaten, which does seem crazy given our 4-9 league record, but we not only have 8 Q1 wins but we have a winning record against Q1 teams (8-7). Our best wins are among the best in the whole country, and we don’t yet have double digit losses.

 

[CyTwister]

Iowa State KenPom moves from 42->34 with the OU blowout proving KenPom (and NET) are still easily changed by big performances. I think if we win 1 more game and don’t get shellacked in any one game, we’re a lock considering the bubble teams: https://barttorvik.com/teamsheets.php?sort=3&conlimit=All

 

[CascadeClone]

Houston will be a fascinating case for seeding. Their NET/KenPom/Sagarin rankings put them in 1-2 seed territory with 0 Q1 wins, which is crazy. If you look at their actual resume, they’ve only earned maybe a 10 or 11 seed. How there can be that big of a disparity is wild. Teams should be seeded based on who you’ve beaten and who you’ve lost to, as well as overall record. They have 4 losses so it’s not like they’re undefeated or something. Loyola, Murray State, and Colorado State all have better resumes but are likely to be seeded much lower. We also have a significantly better resume than Houston and it’s not even close, but we’re on the 10-11 line in people like Lunardi’s bracketology…

They were #4 in NET, but not in the Top16 list put out today by the committee. So seems like that NET is not going to be weighted very heavily. Makes me feel better about our chances. But it's gotta make EIU nervous.

 

[DSM4Cy]

They were #4 in NET, but not in the Top16 list put out today by the committee. So seems like that NET is not going to be weighted very heavily. Makes me feel better about our chances. But it's gotta make EIU nervous.

Yep. Iowa's still on the bubble even with today, although it helps them tremendously. But still, there have been VERY few teams to get an at-large with only 1 Q1-type win over the years. Wake Forest, UNC have to be very nervous, and even Houston could miss the Dance entirely if they lose their tourney. I know, that seems ridiculous - how could a team that's #4 OVERALL in NET not make the tourney? Well, they have 0 Quad 1 wins and only 1 more guaranteed chance to get one, @ Memphis who's finally figured things out. You have to actually beat teams.

 

[DSM4Cy]

Teams who can feel way better after today's release: us, Seton Hall, TCU, Michigan, Miami, Rutgers

Teams who should feel very nervous and have little margin for error: Houston (and every team from the AAC, who might only get their league champion), Indiana, Iowa, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech

 

[jctisu]

Yep. Iowa's still on the bubble even with today, although it helps them tremendously. But still, there have been VERY few teams to get an at-large with only 1 Q1-type win over the years. Wake Forest, UNC have to be very nervous, and even Houston could miss the Dance entirely if they lose their tourney. I know, that seems ridiculous - how could a team that's #4 OVERALL in NET not make the tourney? Well, they have 0 Quad 1 wins and only 1 more guaranteed chance to get one, @ Memphis who's finally figured things out. You have to actually beat teams.

Houston isn’t missing the dance. I get what you are saying and agree on the others you listed but Houston will still get at least a 10 or 11 seed even if they get severely penalized for no Q1 wins. Just like we may be a team that breaks the mold with more that 4 games under .500 in conference, Houston will be a team that breaks the mold on the whole no Q1 victories thing.

 

[DSM4Cy]

Houston isn’t missing the dance. I get what you are saying and agree on the others you listed but Houston will still get at least a 10 or 11 seed even if they get severely penalized for no Q1 wins. Just like we may be a team that breaks the mold with more that 4 games under .500 in conference, Houston will be a team that breaks the mold on the whole no Q1 victories thing.

Houston losing early in their league tourney could be disastrous for them. I think they could get an at-large if they lose in the semis or final, but if they don't beat Memphis in their last game, they have zero argument for being in based on their resume - and they've had Q1 opportunities. FWIW I'd have them as an 11 right now but only in because they're leading the AAC.

 

[jctisu]

Houston losing early in their league tourney could be disastrous for them. I think they could get an at-large if they lose in the semis or final, but if they don't beat Memphis in their last game, they have zero argument for being in based on their resume - and they've had Q1 opportunities.

Giving way too much credence to conference tournament results like many tend to do on here. Teams don’t actually get much movement based on conference tournaments unless you win them. I am with you on what you are saying and the data backs it up. I am just telling you I guarantee they make it in without any Q1 wins and no conference tournament title if they just win the games they should and lose @ Memphis.

I will gladly come back and say how wrong I was if they are left out, but I don’t see anyway that happens. Hell even if they fall all the way to the First Four/Play in Game they will still get into the field of 68.

 

[DSM4Cy]

Giving way too much credence to conference tournament results like many tend to do on here. Teams don’t actually get much movement based on conference tournaments unless you win them. I am with you on what you are saying and the data backs it up. I am just telling you I guarantee they make it in without any Q1 wins and no conference tournament title if they just win the games they should and lose @ Memphis.

I will gladly come back and say how wrong I was if they are left out, but I don’t see anyway that happens. Hell even if they fall all the way to the First Four/Play in Game they will still get into the field of 68.

Going 3-3 or 4-2 and losing to Wichita or East Carolina in the first round of their tourney...not 100% convinced they're in at that point, but I do think there's a high probability they make it even with no Q1 wins based on analytics, "eye test", and the fact they played in the Final Four last year (which shouldn't matter). Not sure I'm placing too much credence on a conference tourney - but if they lose their first game, it could be a Q3 loss which would further hamper their resume.

 

[NoCreativity]

Yep. Iowa's still on the bubble even with today, although it helps them tremendously. But still, there have been VERY few teams to get an at-large with only 1 Q1-type win over the years. Wake Forest, UNC have to be very nervous, and even Houston could miss the Dance entirely if they lose their tourney. I know, that seems ridiculous - how could a team that's #4 OVERALL in NET not make the tourney? Well, they have 0 Quad 1 wins and only 1 more guaranteed chance to get one, @ Memphis who's finally figured things out. You have to actually beat teams.

Lol, Houston isn't missing the tourney.

 

[ISUTex]

Lol, Houston isn't missing the tourney.

I bet they end up with a 5 seed

 

[allfourcy]

Think the high seed is puzziing, with low Q1 wins, but you can bet there is no way they keep a .500 big10 team out that has 20 wins. Just sayin', I doubt Iowa fans are worried at all.

 

[cyclones500]

Lol, Houston isn't missing the tourney.

It would require a combination of extreme collapse with remaining schedule, then a bunch of AQ bid-stealing.

On the in-season bracket-reveal today, committee chairman was asked which teams just missed the cut for the top 16. Answer was: Alabama, Houston and Ohio State.

 

[jctisu]

Going 3-3 or 4-2 and losing to Wichita or East Carolina in the first round of their tourney...not 100% convinced they're in at that point, but I do think there's a high probability they make it even with no Q1 wins based on analytics, "eye test", and the fact they played in the Final Four last year (which shouldn't matter). Not sure I'm placing too much credence on a conference tourney - but if they lose their first game, it could be a Q3 loss which would further hamper their resume.

But that’s not what I said. I said if they beat everyone they should, which is everyone left on the schedule except @ Memphis, which will be a toss up, they are good even with a loss in the first game of the conference tournament. I acknowledge if they meltdown and lose out or grab only a single win that isn’t Memphis the rest of the way, they would be in serious trouble. But at that point your point about no Q1 wins isn’t some big thing because they will have piled up some bad losses in a row and go straight to the back of the line and be viewed as a bubble team anyway. I’m not banking on them losing 4+ games here.

You made it sound that if they win out other than @ Memphis and lose early in the conference tournament they are out due to no Q1 wins. I’m saying if they do that there’s no way they aren’t in.

 

[dahliaclone]

We went from 42 to 29 on KenPom after today's win. Yowza.

 

[CascadeClone]

We went from 42 to 29 on KenPom after today's win. Yowza.

Mov matters, even when everyone says they dont want it to.

Also, shooting 67% and scoring a bunch prob took the OE up about 30 spots lol.

 

[CyPunch]

Adj offensive efficiency jumped 20+ spots with today's performance

 

[CyPunch]

I could see a 5 or 6 spot jump in the NET tomorrow. Those efficiency metrics are overrated but today we're benefiting from it