Breece Hall - First Round Odds

[ISUCubswin]

I’m a Dolphins fan - I want Breece bad, but rumor is the coaching staff doesn’t want to “waste” a pick on a day 1 or 2 running back.

Other than Trey Sermon, McDaniels has only worked with 6th round talents or worse, and Sermon didn’t play much this past year.

 

[Mr Janny]

I mean this as no slight to him, I'd never draft a running back high ever again. I think he's a great player and I would have no problem if somebody wants to draft him high, but as a fan of this league I would not want my team (the Chiefs) drafting a RB higher than the 3rd basically ever.

I feel similar. If you go back and look at recent first round running backs, there's not a single one that doesn't have strikes against them. Whether it's significant injury or underperforming, or both, there are very few that have lived up to their pick.


Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Josh Jacobs
Saquon Barkley
Rashaad Penny
Sony Michel
Leonard Fournette
Christian McCaffrey
Ezekiel Elliott
(Not including Najee Harris yet)

Are these players bad? No. But how many of them are truly worth the pick they were taken with?
And yes, I realize that many first round picks at other positions don't pan out, but that list is literally all of the running backs taken in the first round since 2016, and there's not a single one you can't make a case for being not worth their pick.

 

[PSYclone22]

I feel similar. If you go back and look at recent first round running backs, there's not a single one that doesn't have strikes against them. Whether it's significant injury or underperforming, or both, there are very few that have lived up to their pick.


Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Josh Jacobs
Saquon Barkley
Rashaad Penny
Sony Michel
Leonard Fournette
Christian McCaffrey
Ezekiel Elliott
(Not including Najee Harris yet)

Are these players bad? No. But how many of them are truly worth the pick they were taken with?
And yes, I realize that many first round picks at other positions don't pan out, but that list is literally all of the running backs taken in the first round since 2016, and there's not a single one you can't make a case for being not worth their pick.

And yet, teams continue to take RBs in the first. Which makes me about 67% confident he'll be taken in the 1st.

He's one of only 5 players that put up a 99 athleticism score at the combine this year.

 

[Mr Janny]

And yet, teams continue to take RBs in the first. Which makes me about 67% confident he'll be taken in the 1st.

He's one of only 5 players that put up a 99 athleticism score at the combine this year.

It's possible, and I really hope he gets taken in the first round. My point is that it's very possible he doesn't get taken until the 2nd round, regardless of his combine performance. If that happens, it doesn't mean he got screwed or that the NFL hates Iowa State.

 

[isuno1fan]

Best odds in a while and would love to get ISU a 1st rounder, BUT I think 90% he goes 2nd round.

To add fuel to the fire, I could see some stupid team pick a RB in the 1st and have it not be Breece for some ridiculous reason.

 

[VeloClone]

It's possible, and I really hope he gets taken in the first round. My point is that it's very possible he doesn't get taken until the 2nd round, regardless of his combine performance. If that happens, it doesn't mean he got screwed or that the NFL hates Iowa State.

Right. What would be more telling would be if he isn't the top RB taken or at least top 3 RB.

 

[Mr Janny]

Right. What would be more telling would be if he isn't the top RB taken or at least top 3 RB.

Agreed. He and Walker from MSU are 1A and 1B. Might boil down to interview performance or just overall feeling as to which goes first.

 

[BMWallace]

Agreed. He and Walker from MSU are 1A and 1B. Might boil down to interview performance or just overall feeling as to which goes first.

I have seen a few places mention there may be concern with Breece's workload in college. He had 800 touches compared to Walker's 499. I don't ascribe to that, but I have seen it mentioned.

 

[VeloClone]

Agreed. He and Walker from MSU are 1A and 1B. Might boil down to interview performance or just overall feeling as to which goes first.

And if it is a dead heat a franchise (like Detroit) might go for the local guy hoping to sell a few more tickets - if all things were equal.

 

[Mr Janny]

I have seen a few places mention there may be concern with Breece's workload in college. He had 800 touches compared to Walker's 499. I don't ascribe to that, but I have seen it mentioned.

Yeah, I can remember that being used against running backs in the past. Matt Forte is the one that sticks out in my memory. I have no idea how much teams actually consider it, but Forte did just fine in the NFL.

 

[Rural]

The Cowboys are going to trade Zeke , huh?

For what?

 

[VeloClone]

The Cowboys are going to trade Zeke , huh?

For what?

Some baseball bats and a few cases of Coke.

 

[BoxsterCy]

It's possible, and I really hope he gets taken in the first round. My point is that it's very possible he doesn't get taken until the 2nd round, regardless of his combine performance. If that happens, it doesn't mean he got screwed or that the NFL hates Iowa State.

^This. And think Hall knows this in his comments about being the best RB. Guessing he wants to be the 1st back taken, at whatever drat choice that is.

 

[CYdTracked]

Yeah, I can remember that being used against running backs in the past. Matt Forte is the one that sticks out in my memory. I have no idea how much teams actually consider it, but Forte did just fine in the NFL.

And I have seen some compare him to Forte based on the combine and what he did in college. McShay's latest analysis says he is first round talent but likely the 1st RB to come off the board in the 2nd round.

I would love to see him go 1st round too but unless some team is just in love with him or Walker or Spiller that they trade up to take one late in the 1st I don't see a RB going in the 1st round. RB position has evolved in the NFL lately, even teams that have an elite guy at RB1 still mixes in a guy behind them. Just look at Dallas with Zeke and Pollard as a good example of that. Teams are not going to reach for a RB these days when they can fill a bigger need at another position in the 1st round. The Chiefs despite taking C E-H in the first round in 2020 which surprised a lot of people at the time too have basically used a RB by committee system even when he's been healthy with Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore that were undrafted and McKinnon who played for 2 other teams before last season.

The shelf life on RB seems to have shortened and how they are used have changed as well. Look how far Le'Veon Bell fell in such a short time. He was arguably the best or one of the best RB in the NFL before he held out with the Steelers after 5 seasons and now he can't even stick on an NFL roster. Teams are less likely to dish out big contracts for RB anymore because they can get more bang for their buck by drafting one in the middle rounds or shuffling in 2 or 3 different guys that offer different skill sets.

 

[t-noah]

There are a lot of mock drafts. Here is one, all 7 rounds, ...
Edit: I removed this mock draft as it was not current. It was from Aug 7, 2021. My error.

 

[isufbcurt]

Do some of you hate Breece? I would never wish or predict one of our players going to the Cowboys. What an awful organization.

I don't care where he goes I just want him to go in Rd 1

 

[Shawker]

There are a lot of mock drafts. Here is one, all 7 rounds, Breece being the first RB taken, by the Jets, 41st in round 2.

2022 NFL Mock Draft: Complete 7-round predictions for each team

Group of Five quarterbacks dominate the top half of Round 1 in this 7-Round 2022 NFL Mock Draft. So which is the first QB off the board?

www.profootballnetwork.com

This probably insures that Breece doesn't go to the Jets (hope not), as mocks are rarely accurate.

That might be the worst mock draft I've ever seen.

Edit: That's from August 2021 which explains a lot.

 

[CyberJJJ]

Agreed. He and Walker from MSU are 1A and 1B. Might boil down to interview performance or just overall feeling as to which goes first.

Which helped themselves more at the combine? I didn't watch or follow it so don't know.

 

[t-noah]

That might be the worst mock draft I've ever seen.

Edit: That's from August 2021 which explains a lot.

Whoops. Sometimes I don't look at the dates. My bad.

 

[Mr Janny]

Which helped themselves more at the combine? I didn't watch or follow it so don't know.

Both had very fast 40 times. Breece excelled in some of the other events, and his speed combined with being a little heavier might be seen as an advantage for him, but they're still the top two, and there's probably still debate about which one is the first off the board