Latest Bracketology

[NENick]

It seems that if seeding really is based on the full body of work, a win or loss in a team's 30th game should have minimal impact. I think Lunardi (and many fans) overreact to individual games.

I overreact to the no longer used last 10 games data.

 

[dahliaclone]

 

[qwerty]

Ran across this just now. Just started watching. Could be interesting.

 

[CyFanInChiLand]

So, anyone see where projections have us now that we are done with games for the year? 8/9 line I'd assume. Hoping we don't drop to a 10 after the last 2 games.

 

[Cyclones1969]

So, anyone see where projections have us now that we are done with games for the year? 8/9 line I'd assume. Hoping we don't drop to a 10 after the last 2 games.

I would assume you were too busy watching Iowa lose to Illinois to notice, but two games ago we had the lead on a one seed with 3 minutes at their place.

 

[madguy30]

So, anyone see where projections have us now that we are done with games for the year? 8/9 line I'd assume. Hoping we don't drop to a 10 after the last 2 games.

I'd take a 10 seed.

That means ISU is in the tournament.

 

[BryceC]

I'd take a 10 seed.

That means ISU is in the tournament.

Agreed. I'd prefer a 10 over an 8 or 9.

That said that loss last night dropped us from 39 to 47 in the NET, which is not ideal.

 

[madguy30]

Agreed. I'd prefer a 10 over an 8 or 9.

That said that loss last night dropped us from 39 to 47 in the NET, which is not ideal.

If/when ISU has more talent and depth available etc. I'll get more into the seed game.

Exactly ten years ago ISU got in on the 8/9 line with a more talented and experienced roster and one of the most unique players in ISU history and iirc people were just happy the team got in.

 

[awd4cy]

Agreed. I'd prefer a 10 over an 8 or 9.

That said that loss last night dropped us from 39 to 47 in the NET, which is not ideal.

This isn’t a team that can go on a run and beat a 1 or 2 seed. Their ceiling is winning 1 and that is likely more difficult as 10 than a 9 or 8.

 

[CoachHines3]

Has been said, but would much rather be a 10 I think than a 8/9.

Guessing we’re 9/10 on Sunday.

 

[CoachHines3]

Agreed. I'd prefer a 10 over an 8 or 9.

That said that loss last night dropped us from 39 to 47 in the NET, which is not ideal.

I think (hope) the committee seems to value Q1 wins almost more than your actual NET ranking.

For us though, I don’t think that gets us past an 8.

 

[clone52]

This isn’t a team that can go on a run and beat a 1 or 2 seed. Their ceiling is winning 1 and that is likely more difficult as 10 than a 9 or 8.

It really all depends on matchups. They way Michigan State turns the ball over, I'd love a matchup with them.

 

[CascadeClone]

If Iowa State loses to Texas Tech and stays in that 8/9 range, our first round opponent will likely be one of the following teams.

• North Carolina
• San Diego State
• Michigan State
• Marquette
• Miami
• Murray State
• Boise State
• Notre Dame/Wake Forest if they climb to 9-seed. Same with Michigan.

We can't play Creighton or TCU obviously. Marquette can't play Creighton, UNC can't play Miami, San Diego State can't play Boise State. ISU or TCU can't be in Baylor's pod (or Kansas if they are a 1-seed). Michigan State also can't play in Baylor or KU's pod. So it would not be surprising at all to see Michigan State playing either ISU or TCU.

Get ready for being in Gonzaga, Arizona, or Auburn's pod if we are 8/9, likely playing one of those above teams. If we beat TT and are a 7, obviously a ton more options available for both 1st/2nd round draws.

Since matchup is such a big deal for ISU, I have started looking at it this way too. Just first round, 2nd round I can't bring myself to worry about yet. People debating AZ vs Zags... horse then cart please.

Assuming ISU will be between 7 and 10, here's all teams in that range (minus ones we've already played) and their defensive KenPom ranking:
Ohio St 130
Colo St 77
USC 49
Seton Hall 27
Murray St 40
Boise St 19
Mich St 56
Marq 46
SD St 2
UNC 38
San Fran 17
Mich 92
Davidson 177
Loyola-Chi 22
Mia FL 153
ND 86

While I am not really afraid of anyone outside the Top 40 defensively, bring on Davidson, the Buckeyes, Miami, or Michigan. Beyond that I haven't really seen much of any of those teams.

Big pass on good defensive "try-hards" like Boise, SD St, SF, or Loyola. Those guys will be uber-focused. We would have to out-physically-talent them, which could happen, but I would hate to rely on it.

They usually like to have at least one 8-9 game between major conferences. I could definitely see ISU matched vs OSU or Michigan. Or UNC in Greenville as an offering to UNC.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I think we're in the 8/9 slot, which is fine by me. Good chance to advance to the 2nd round, and if we do, a chance to shock the world with no expectations.

 

[enisthemenace]

Again…10 seed is probably preferred.

 

[Gunnerclone]

This isn’t a team that can go on a run and beat a 1 or 2 seed. Their ceiling is winning 1 and that is likely more difficult as 10 than a 9 or 8.

I’m hanging on to the hope that a battle hardened big 12 team can cause havoc for teams from other conferences. Big 12 will probably flop in the tourney though because **** happens in the tourney.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Again…10 seed is probably preferred.

Milwaukee would be our best destination by far

 

[CloneGuy8]

Lunardi still has us as a 9 after last nights blowout. I'd still take that - hope we can win at least one game and avoid Kentucky. Most 1's are a bad matchup for us - I think they're the worst.

 

[enisthemenace]

Milwaukee would be our best destination by far

Give me a first round matchup against a team with suspect defensive metrics and a second round potential of Purdue or Wisconsin, and I’ll be happier than a pig in ****.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I am not sure it matters what seed/who the opponent is. I think this team is done for. Hope they prove me wrong, but writing seems on the wall. They are worn out, tired, and have been exposed too often. Thrilled that they'll be getting an invite and can hang their names on the banner in Hilton, but I won't be expecting any NCAA wins regardless of who the opponent is. I will just be tickled to not be playing in Dayton, which quite frankly is better than the team in its current state of affairs deserves.