NFL: ***2022 NFL Draft Thread***

[NoCreativity]

A good RB will score more TDS than most WRs.

It's not about TDs, it's analytics. Take fantasy football as an example, when a stud running back gets hurt a majority of the time the backup can come right in and putup good numbers.

Like others have said, thry just aren't worth a first round pick very often anymore because the drop-off is much lower than other positions in regards to replacement level.

Take Dalvin Cook fro example, stud running back, when he gets hurt Mattison usually comes in and puts up similar numbers. But let's say Jefferson gets hurt, would you expect their 3rd or 4th receiver to start putting up Pro Bowl numbers as his replacement?

 

[cstrunk]

With a ton of wrs taken already he’d have gotten drafted though right?

I meant drafted at all, not drafted first round.

If they keep taking wrs like this they’ll have a ton that seem like lesser players to my untrained eye.

Oh, OK. Thought you meant drafted by now, as in the first round.

Hutchinson may have a chance in the later rounds. But he'll need to but up really good numbers again this year.

 

[howellc33]

The Jets traded some of those, They only have 38 left in the 2nd from what I see.

Awesome, I didn't factor in the recent trades..still don't have the best feeling tho. Would be cool if the Bills traded up for him..

 

[Cyclones1969]

Disappointed Breece didn't get drafted tonight, but that was a pretty wild first round.

Most important thing now is fit, A team with a decent offensive line

Breece is going to be drafted tomorrow. If he stays healthy, he will be productive and make a lot of money.

I just want him to avoid the David treatment, and go to a team that won’t get him killed

 

[Mr Janny]

I dont understand the NFL hatred towards RBs. When the good ones light up the scoreboard on sundays they sure care. Last time I checked, in order to win a game you need to score more points than the opponent.
A good RB will score more TDS than most WRs.

True, a RB will score more TDs, but how many more touches does a RB require per score, compared to a receiver? It's significant. Cooper Kupp led the league in targets by a receiver, last year, at 191, far far lower than even an average starting running back.

Receiving is just a more efficient way to score points than rushing. Teams run all of those numbers and it definitely has affected their drafting strategy

 

[Kaner04]

I get it, teams don't rush as much as they used to anymore and RBs these days have a short shelf life regardless. There's also a lesser impact (if not absence of) "bellcow" RBs in the modern game with more and more teams using a variety of rotations at the position. RBs just aren't a great use of first-round draft capital anymore.

The difference between Breece and a guy with a 3rd-5th round grade isn’t that large. Most teams that are good have good o-lines that can open a hole for anybody. Why would a good team use a pick on a guy like Breece when the same value is there for a fourth rounder because they can hit an open hole too. Bad team have a lot more problems that a good running back isn’t gonna solve. They need O-lineman, D-lineman, a quarterback, not a running back that’s gonna get killed by a bad O-line.

 

[cytor]

It's not about TDs, it's analytics. Take fantasy football as an example, when a stud running back gets hurt a majority of the time the backup can come right in and putup good numbers.

Like others have said, thry just aren't worth a first round pick very often anymore because the drop-off is much lower than other positions in regards to replacement level.

Take Dalvin Cook fro example, stud running back, when he gets hurt Mattison usually comes in and puts up similar numbers. But let's say Jefferson gets hurt, would you expect their 3rd or 4th receiver to start putting up Pro Bowl numbers as his replacement?

I hear what you are saying... but it's a major difference between Cook and Mattison and how defenses play them. Cook is far more dangerous.

 

[cytor]

The difference between Breece and a guy with a 3rd-5th round grade isn’t that large. Most teams that are good have good o-lines that can open a hole for anybody. Why would a good team use a pick on a guy like Breece when the same value is there for a fourth rounder because they can hit an open hole too. Bad team have a lot more problems that a good running back isn’t gonna solve. They need O-lineman, D-lineman, a quarterback, not a running back that’s gonna get killed by a bad O-line.

Elite RBs make a difference. Breece is elite. I don't disagree about the lower level RBs.

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

I hear what you are saying... but it's a major difference between Cook and Mattison and how defenses play them. Cook is far more dangerous.

Mattison would definitely start on a couple teams right now. Seems like every time he fills in for an injured Cook he’s hitting 100 yards that game.

 

[UNIGuy4Cy]

Chiefs have absolutely no running threat to speak of, whiff on two players with Hall on the board. Brett the GM gets a lot of love but he is lucky to have Mahomes because he is not all he is spoken up to be.

 

[BigJCy]

 

[Cyclones1969]

He will be another in the line of Iowa State athletes that will always represent the university.

A football version of Georges.

And remember his cousin was a second round draft pick, and he had a damn good career

 

[Mr Janny]

Elite RBs make a difference. Breece is elite. I don't disagree about the lower level RBs.

That's the point. Even when you have an elite running back, the statistical difference isn't that much. Take Dalvin Cook, who you mentioned before. Last year, in games he played in, the Vikings averaged 113 rushing yards per game. In the 4 games he missed? They averaged 115 rushing yards per game.

Now, obviously I'm not advocating that they'd be better off without him, but it's not hard to see why many teams are looking at numbers like that and coming to the conclusion that spending high picks on rbs does not provide a great ROI compared to other positions.

 

[Mr Janny]

That's the point. Even when you have an elite running back, the statistical difference isn't that much. Take Dalvin Cook, who you mentioned before. Last year, in games he played in, the Vikings averaged 113 rushing yards per game. In the 4 games he missed? They averaged 115 rushing yards per game.

Now, obviously I'm not advocating that they'd be better off without him, but it's not hard to see why many teams are looking at numbers like that and coming to the conclusion that spending high picks on rbs does not provide a great ROI compared to other positions.

Or how about Tennessee? Derrick Henry was killing it early last year before he got hurt. The Titans were averaging 147 rushing yards per game. After he went down? They dropped. 12 yards per game, to 135. Henry was worth a 9% increase in rushing yards over his replacement.

 

[MartyFine]

Everyone in this thread proceeds on the assumption that all NFL front offices (and Jerry Jones) know what they are doing which could not be further from the truth

 

[CYaeger]

Embarrassing

 

[Daserop]

Lol @ NFL. Big 12 apparently has no round 1 talent

 

[CRcyclone6]

Tampa Bay up first tonight. ESPN's tracker says Dean is the best available, but Hall is the best fit.

 

[madguy30]

Man they drag out this 1st round

I couldn't watch for more than two rounds.

I'll never understand the circus like excitement for the draft.

 

[madguy30]

Everyone in this thread proceeds on the assumption that all NFL front offices (and Jerry Jones) know what they are doing which could not be further from the truth

Was talking to a Packers fan yesterday and there's quite a bit of frustration with how they don't draft based on need. TJ Watt came up very quickly.