Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[ISU_Guy]

Can we just work out something with the university of Dubai and get its ncaa membership and tell the Saudi’s that we need 500 million a year to join the b12.
If they can put the LIV golf league in place they can field an athletic dept.
that would put us north of a billion per year…lol

This thread is taxing

 

[Kinch]

If they were smart, they would muzzle Barta. It’s real testy in realignment, as we know, as to what you can and can’t say publicly. I would find it hysterical if that buffoon got the conference in a lawsuit in all this.

Bingo.

 

[CloneGuy8]

Yeah, I am sure Dochterman is in the know . . . . .

View attachment 100553

Current lines on realignment . . .

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Cal and Stanford are good bets with those odds. You're throwing away money if you bet Cincy or Kansas

 

[clonedude]

Why anyone would want Cal is beyond me.

 

[RustShack]

If ND doesn't move yet there's a real chance that we get blueballed for a while. The Pac-12 plans for 10, we plan for 12, the ACC stays shelled up at 14.5. The B1G and SEC move forward with 16.

Eventually something will crack. No doubt about it. But it may not be for another year or two. It could even be longer than that.

I think at this point there are three dominoes that could fall first.

1. Obviously ND, and they bring 1-3 more PAC schools with them to the B1G.

2. PAC feedback on media contract isn’t good, and the four Mountain schools jump to the Big12 potentially forcing Oregon and Washingtons hand to follow.

3. The SEC raids the ACC then option 1 applies again, as does 2, and the Big12 and B1G also grab some ACC schools.

 

[WhoISthis]

50-60k is pretty standard for the future big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma.

And it is unclear whether we'll be able to be the base of the 3rd conference.


58k for a rivalry game between two P5s in the same metro being the high point isn't boast worthy or a sign there isn't apathy.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

If ND doesn't move yet there's a real chance that we get blueballed for a while. The Pac-12 plans for 10, we plan for 12, the ACC stays shelled up at 14.5. The B1G and SEC move forward with 16.

Eventually something will crack. No doubt about it. But it may not be for another year or two. It could even be longer than that.

Can’t be two or more years because of the pac media deal negotiations. 1 year sure but no way they go into new negotiations with what they have.

 

[12191987]

50-60k is pretty standard for the future big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma.

I’d argue build to their needs isn’t entirely accurate.

California Memorial Stadium was reduced from a capacity of ~72K to ~63K during a seismic retrofit and modernization. This reduction was driven by the desire/need to stay within the envelope of the stadium, not because of declining demand. I can assure you that as the project was being formulated Cal had plenty of games at that 72K capacity and nary a ticket to be had.

The culture is just different. The demand is driven much more by on-field success. If Cal were to field a playoff contender they’d be able to fill up a stadium of virtually any size. If they’re relegated to some middlin’ MWC-esque league and continue to struggle, my guess is the floor is ~30-35K average.

Maybe it just means less? It certainly does compared to football crazed places like Texas. I mean, you won’t see Pac-12 teams showing the initiative to put up tarps when nobody shows up to see their loser teams (Right, Baylor?).

Honestly, I think a lot of this talk is the same regional bias/ignorance ISU faces outside the plains region.

 

[CloneGuy8]

Cal has put a lot of REALLY good players in the NFL. Its crazy to see how far they've fallen. Aaron Rodgers, Marshawn Lynch, DeSean Jackson just to name a few.

I remember watching this game live and being in awe of what an athlete Jackson was.

 

[isucy86]

If ND doesn't move yet there's a real chance that we get blueballed for a while. The Pac-12 plans for 10, we plan for 12, the ACC stays shelled up at 14.5. The B1G and SEC move forward with 16.

Eventually something will crack. No doubt about it. But it may not be for another year or two. It could even be longer than that.

ND's deal with NBC for FB runs through 2025, so unless NBC is willing to let them out of the current contract, there isn't an urgent reason for ND to move on. Could be the buyout clause isn't a big hurdle and Big10 money talks.

Heck, if NBC is serious about televising football, they could cobble together a new conference with ND, Pac 12 & Big12 teams. The word out of the Big10 TV deal presentations was NBC was interested in televising a Big10 game before/after ND Games.

ND's Athletic Director brought up the potential for two versions of college football in the future:

1. A version where FB programs are spun off from the university, players are paid and don't have to go to class.
2. The traditional student-athlete model with true NIL.

So maybe ND wants to see how NCAA Reorg plays outs before jumping into a 10 year TV GOR deal with the Big10.

 

[12191987]

Cal has put a lot of REALLY good players in the NFL. Its crazy to see how far they've fallen. Aaron Rodgers, Marshawn Lynch, DeSean Jackson just to name a few.

I remember watching this game live and being in awe of what an athlete Jackson was.

Maybe their future is like Rutgers past (and, uhh, present and likely future minus the cash), but I’m not sure how people fail to grasp that being the flagship state university in a state that can plausibly be considered the deepest talent pool in the country offers some advantages.

 

[JM4CY]

It’s all about “brand” now. If you can’t even a halfway fill your stadium or come even close, or if no one watches you on tv, how can you say there is a solid brand? No one seems to care. Is there something I am missing about Cal?

 

[simply1]

And it is unclear whether we'll be able to be the base of the 3rd conference.


58k for a rivalry game between two P5s in the same metro being the high point isn't boast worthy or a sign there isn't apathy.

Show me the plethora of stadiums for the non big 2 conferences and their pickings that are significantly better. You can assume Clemson, etc gone. This is a comparison of like schools. Not sure it’s boasting.
You keep changing targets, they filled the stadium for bad teams rivalry game. Their stadium capacities are equal to or larger than most of the remaining peers.

 

[AlaCyclone]

I'd take Cal for sure. Great road trip, and playing in a talent rich state is always a good thing. Plus, adding ANY Pac teams = GREAT for the Big Xii!

 

[RustShack]

ND's deal with NBC for FB runs through 2025, so unless NBC is willing to let them out of the current contract, there isn't an urgent reason for ND to move on. Could be the buyout clause isn't a big hurdle and Big10 money talks.

Heck, if NBC is serious about televising football, they could cobble together a new conference with ND, Pac 12 & Big12 teams. The word out of the Big10 TV deal presentations was NBC was interested in televising a Big10 game before/after ND Games.

ND's Athletic Director brought up the potential for two versions of college football in the future:

1. A version where FB programs are spun off from the university, players are paid and don't have to go to class.
2. The traditional student-athlete model with true NIL.

So maybe ND wants to see how NCAA Reorg plays outs before jumping into a 10 year TV GOR deal with the Big10.

I didn’t think the B1G had a GoR? Or is it only the SEC who doesn’t?

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Can’t be two or more years because of the pac media deal negotiations. 1 year sure but no way they go into new negotiations with what they have.

Sure it can. The B1G and SEC decide to wait. The ACC stays out and its schools also wait due to GOR. And both the Pac-10 and Big 12 prefer their current situations over joining the other of those two leagues. If the money is about the same, wouldn’t surprise me. The corner schools could stick around with a short GOR signed by UW and UO. And OK State, TCU etc could prefer to stay rather than make $2M more in the other league by jumping. Or vice versa for Utah etc.

Lots of possibilities.

 

[SCNCY]

I didn’t think the B1G had a GoR? Or is it only the SEC who doesn’t?

Pretty sure neither of them have one. And they don’t need one either. It was only the PAC, ACC, and Big 12 in order to keep their big brands from leaving in the meddle of a media deal and thus, damaging other schools.

 

[2speedy1]

I didn’t think the B1G had a GoR? Or is it only the SEC who doesn’t?

No one knows if their new contract will have one yet. So far the SEC and B1G dont, but no one knows, being they are the ones everyone wants in right now its doubtful they need one.

 

[2speedy1]

Sure it can. The B1G and SEC decide to wait. The ACC stays out and its schools also wait due to GOR. And both the Pac-10 and Big 12 prefer their current situations over joining the other of those two leagues. If the money is about the same, wouldn’t surprise me. The corner schools could stick around with a short GOR signed by UW and UO. And OK State, TCU etc could prefer to stay rather than make $2M more in the other league by jumping. Or vice versa for Utah etc.

Lots of possibilities.

And even with the GOR ending/waiting to the end there is still exit fees to leave. It is just the GOR is a much larger exit penalty if you leave early. Leaving for just a couple million is probably not beneficial unless you see a huge future gain. A school leaving would lose money for years paying the exit fee, plus most likely a reduced share of any conference they join for a while. My guess is if its not a substantial benefit, the moves wont happen.

 

[t-noah]

This thread is taxing

We will not TAX additional teams as they enter our BIG 12 (P3) kingdom. Four additions will make 16. Gradual additions make a final 24 teams!
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Ha! The Big 12 lives on! Or, call it the Big 16, Big 18, Big 20, Big 22, and finally the Big 24! Someone will come up with a good name. I hope the "Big 12" can rise above the potential ashes of the PAC 12 and ACC. And I will be very happy if ISU stays alive in a future P3 conference, whatever happens. We have the fan support!!! We can do this. Stick together 12!