Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

FriendlySpartan

Well-Known Member
Jul 26, 2021
9,655
10,134
113
38
You’re right, he’s also a mediocre lawyer

This isn’t a legal decision. It’s a business decision based on risk/reward, like most of these situations. The likelihood of success in court is an input, which is why the ACC leftovers have enough leverage to get accommodations, but as long as it’s non-zero, it’s just risk/reward, and the leftovers can only “not lose” in court.

On the other hand, the would-be P2 schools have $800 million to spend on this, and losing in court just means going back to ACC with amortized owed rights for any season they were gone. Likely well less than $800 million.

There could also be other events that would further erode the ability to keep ACC schools from leaving. Best to settle while you can

More frivolous lawsuits get settled every day.
What do you have to go on to say he is a mediocre laywer besides the fact that you, not a lawyer, disagrees with his legal judgement?
 

nwcat

Active Member
Jul 20, 2016
57
114
33
Completely agree, but besides that there's a ton of reasons we shouldn't be looking at G5 teams in the near future. Unless there's a significant change in situations, G5s have to be off the table now, primarily because there are a lot of far more valuable schools that very well might be looking for a new home when the ACC GOR is up and the Big XII is in a stable position for the time being.

Let's say we take 4 from the PAC to get to 16. Should we go for 20 with the likes of San Diego St, Boise St, Tulane and UNLV? Or wait and see if we can get there with the likes of Pitt, NC State, VA Tech and Louisville? Washington St and Oregon St probably both bring 2-3x the value of any of those G5 schools and everyone's shitting all over them. Yeah, it'd be a lot more fun to go to a road game in San Diego or New Orleans than Pullman or Corvallis, but that's not a good reason to add schools to the conference.

Last year's adds were the best available and if the Big XII didn't take them, the PAC would very likely be circling the carcass of the Big XII right now instead of the other way around. The situation has changed dramatically in 12 months.
I agree on adding some from the P12/10, but it may make sense to just add 2 (UA and CU) and avoid doubling up on the Arizona and Utah markets with ASU and UU and then hold and see what the ACC will do. Ultimately, the broadcasters will largely dictate which P12/10 schools actually add value, but if taking all of the Four Corner schools is revenue negative for the B12 then I would think adding only 2 would be a better option
 

WhoISthis

Well-Known Member
Oct 6, 2010
5,620
3,569
113
I understand that. In a negotiated release the remaining schools could grant the rights back to clemson and then receive payments from clemson in return.

People lose sight of what these leftovers are trying to win.

Upholding the GOR in court is only a “didn’t lose” - and the best case scenario if you let it get that far.

It completely wastes turning the GOR into peak value, instead just agreeing to a death march to expiration and then nothing

Leveraging the GOR to get a settlement equal or better to balance of GOR, with more favorable post-ACC position than GOR expiration, is using the GOR to win. And given the value added to 4-6 schools in P2, and the low 2016 deal for next 14 years, an exchange will be possible

The bigger question is how many schools have P2 spots. And the networks agreeing on it. BIG/Fox talking through the press yesterday with respect to FSU/Miami..and likely putting unc/UVa on notice that staying in ACC will be tough
 
Last edited:

FriendlySpartan

Well-Known Member
Jul 26, 2021
9,655
10,134
113
38
It absolutely will be something seeing the Iowas and Missouris of the world go from grave dancing and cheering checks getting cleared suddenly realize how screwed they are once the Ohio States and Alabamas make it clear they don't see them on the same level
Ummm no one has ever seen Iowa or Missouri on the same level as bama or OSU?
 

cyIclSoneU

Well-Known Member
Apr 7, 2016
3,300
4,562
113
On the other hand, the would-be P2 schools have $800 million to spend on this, and losing in court just means going back to ACC with amortized owed rights for any season they were gone. Likely well less than $800 million.

That's not what it means.

UNC leaves the ACC for the B1G

The ACC sues for their media rights under the GOR. The ACC wins

You think the ACC will just welcome them back with open arms? The league would own their media rights regardless of what UNC does.

I know that if UT and OU tried to pull this, and the Big 12 won in court, I would want us to stick it to them as much as possible.

It's way riskier than people like you think, which is why it hasn't happened and it won't happen
 

isu81

Well-Known Member
Mar 6, 2013
2,429
1,671
113
If the 16 team rumor happens it almost certainly will not be. The 2 of them can't make rules excluding everyone else due to legal issues anyhow if it doesn't expand
I guess I’m considering they are both going to 20-24. There are no legal issues in exclusion of other schools.
 
  • Dumb
Reactions: ribsnwhiskey

WhoISthis

Well-Known Member
Oct 6, 2010
5,620
3,569
113
What do you have to go on to say he is a mediocre laywer besides the fact that you, not a lawyer, disagrees with his legal judgement?
His complete lack of understanding of how the legal opinion fits into this decision/situation, and 10 years of going back and forth with him on similar topics.

If you get advice from a lawyer that you should pass on a favorable settlement in favor of risking everything for best case of “didn’t lose”, because they tell you it’s an “ironclad” legal document, or something to that effect, find a different lawyer
 

FriendlySpartan

Well-Known Member
Jul 26, 2021
9,655
10,134
113
38
His complete lack of understanding of how the legal opinion fits into this decision/situation, and 10 years of going back and forth with him on similar topics.

If you get advice from a lawyer that you should pass on a favorable settlement in favor of risking everything for best case of “didn’t lose”, because they tell you it’s an “ironclad” legal document, or something to that effect, find a different lawyer
This is such an example of what is wrong with this country. You a non lawyer think that you are somehow better equipped to give a legal judgement then an actual laywer based on the fact that you did some internet research. This is like when people come into the hospital and try to tell me how to do my job because they googled their symptoms
 

jdoggivjc

Well-Known Member
Sep 27, 2006
61,625
23,880
113
Macomb, MI
Why would any school from a left behind league ever settle regarding a GoR agreement? They are entitled to their media rights income if the break it and they won't get a better deal than that.

While it's obvious ND, UVA, UNC, Miami, Clemson, and FSU would have it better in the Big 10 and SEC, respectively, it can also be argued very easily that in terms of finances VT, NCST, GT, Pitt, and Louisville would have it better in the Big 12 than staying in the ACC. And by the time that many teams have been pilfered from a conference, dissolution of the conference comes into play, rendering a GOR meaningless. That was what made realignment back in the early 2010s so terrifying - if the Pac 12 had managed to secure the 4 schools at the time (before Colorado jumped), the Big 12 was facing dissolution, which would have left the remaining schools screwed without the GOR to protect them/us.
 

Stormin

Well-Known Member
Apr 11, 2006
45,477
14,349
113
I agree on adding some from the P12/10, but it may make sense to just add 2 (UA and CU) and avoid doubling up on the Arizona and Utah markets with ASU and UU and then hold and see what the ACC will do. Ultimately, the broadcasters will largely dictate which P12/10 schools actually add value, but if taking all of the Four Corner schools is revenue negative for the B12 then I would think adding only 2 would be a better option

IMO you add the 4 Corners. Now is not the time to be cute and mess things up. And it provides travel partners and rivalry games which attracts eyeballs. It solidifies our western flank. Those are P5 Schools and not G5. With the addition of the 4 Corners you can establish a solid P3 Conference. A Conference that can compete on the field and snag at large CFP berths. Big 12 just needs to win on the field.
 

WhoISthis

Well-Known Member
Oct 6, 2010
5,620
3,569
113
That's not what it means.

UNC leaves the ACC for the B1G

The ACC sues for their media rights under the GOR. The ACC wins

You think the ACC will just welcome them back with open arms? The league would own their media rights regardless of what UNC does.

I know that if UT and OU tried to pull this, and the Big 12 won in court, I would want us to stick it to them as much as possible.

It's way riskier than people like you think, which is why it hasn't happened and it won't happen

The ACC staff wins- the schools of the leftover ACC don’t.

The leftovers are right back to being in the dead ACC on a bad deal. With now much less ability to change that. Perhaps some amortized payments for whatever games unc was gone, but good luck on that being appreciable on an annual basis. It will be Bobby Bonita style

If they don’t welcome them back, they all lose. The departing schools could just sit out, knowing that is untenable for everyone, or play all road games. The leftovers can’t get revenue that doesn’t exist- and departing schools aren’t playing football with no revenue. They'd be welcomed back.

For $800 million, a lot of things are justifiable for the would-be P2s. The risk/rewards are too asymmetrical, and it is just a matter of how bloody it needs to get
 

CoKane

Well-Known Member
Oct 26, 2013
18,197
11,886
113
Cedar Rapids
Ummm no one has ever seen Iowa or Missouri on the same level as bama or OSU?
Iowa fans on the 247 board were appalled at the idea that they wouldn't be a part of a Big 10 break away yesterday. Overall my point was more along the lines of the mid tier team in the conferences are getting pretty big heads because they get the money and could compete with the higher ups, so they act like they're the chosen ones or whatnot. Some of those teams are going to be left behind once Alabama gets sick of footing the bill for Vandy or someone comes calling and tells them, Georgia, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Florida State(for example) that they'd pay them even more to pair up with the Big 10s elite to form a coast to coast superleague, but this time without needing to include Northwestern or Purdue.
 

jdoggivjc

Well-Known Member
Sep 27, 2006
61,625
23,880
113
Macomb, MI
Got to find some rational hawkeye fans, they are out there, irrational people are pointless to listen to anyways.

Ironically my best friend is a rational Hawkeye fan who only starts losing sight of reality when Iowa plays ISU or when they're having a particularly good year - and was even happy for me in ISU's Fiesta Bowl year as well as their NCAA run this year.

They're like unicorns, but they do exist.
 

jdoggivjc

Well-Known Member
Sep 27, 2006
61,625
23,880
113
Macomb, MI
IMO you add the 4 Corners. Now is not the time to be cute and mess things up. And it provides travel partners and rivalry games which attracts eyeballs. It solidifies our western flank. Those are P5 Schools and not G5. With the addition of the 4 Corners you can establish a solid P3 Conference. A Conference that can compete on the field and snag at large CFP berths. Big 12 just needs to win on the field.

I'm of this same mindset - take the 4 corners schools. People need to get off this idea that markets matter like they did in 2010, and they're going to matter even less in 2035 and beyond. I want schools that are going to add value and stability instead of dicking around with "well, we should only add 2 of the 4 corners schools because otherwise TV overlap".
 

Stormin

Well-Known Member
Apr 11, 2006
45,477
14,349
113
The ACC staff wins- the schools of the leftover ACC don’t.

The leftovers are right back to being in the dead ACC on a bad deal. With now much less ability to change that. Perhaps some amortized payments for whatever games unc was gone, but good luck on that being appreciable on an annual basis. It will be Bobby Bonita style

If they don’t welcome them back, they all lose. The departing schools could just sit out, knowing that is untenable for everyone, or play all road games. The leftovers can’t get revenue that doesn’t exist- and departing schools aren’t playing football with no revenue. They'd be welcomed back.

For $800 million, a lot of things are justifiable for the would-be P2s. The risk/rewards are too asymmetrical, and it is just a matter of how bloody it needs to get

Departing schools play all road games? Not gonna happen. That will kill the program. That isn’t a realistic option. It it like holding a gun to your head and threatening to pull the trigger. Go ahead and pull it. I’ll watch you destroy yourself. No longer B1G material. Or SEC. You committed suicide by not having a home fanbase. Just a traveling opponent now. What kind of players want to sign with a school that has NO Home Games?
 

Latest posts

Help Support Us

Become a patron