Housing market

Sigmapolis

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I wish I had and old man in FT Dodge to ask questions:

Why does God hate my Minnesota Vikings?

Will my adult children ever get married?

How do I take care of the mole in my back yard?

Why are my eyebrows growing so fast as I get older?

....What is your old man in Ft Dodge question?

The idea of Vikings in Minnesota is a hoax.

No.

Dynamite.

Need an old man in Marshalltown for that one.
 
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Sigmapolis

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I think @twincyties does a good job articulating some of the key differences between now and then, but this whole situation can't help but remind me of this exchange from The Lost World --

Hammond: "Don't worry. I'm not making the same mistakes twice."
Malcolm: "No, you're making all new ones."
 
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twincyties

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I think @twincyties does a good job articulating some of the key differences between now and then, but this whole situation can't help but remind me of this exchange from The Lost World --

Hammond: "Don't worry. I'm not making the same mistakes twice."
Malcolm: "No, you're making all new ones."
Ha! Not to scare, but there are a lot of us in the business that lives through the last crisis saying “please don’t make the same mistakes again” and pondering why this industry seems to have such a short memory :)
 

KnappShack

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Ha! Not to scare, but there are a lot of us in the business that lives through the last crisis saying “please don’t make the same mistakes again” and pondering why this industry seems to have such a short memory :)

I was at a presentation a few years back and the speaker made a comment that our industry is full of people who came in after the crisis.

Wish I could remember the number but I was shocked. The short memory could just be no memory at all.

Like the dip ***** who want a "crash". Yeah. **** you.
 
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Pat

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Don’t worry, we won’t make the same…


Oh. Well at least this coincides with rapidly rising home prices so no one will be backwards… wait, what?
 

Sigmapolis

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Ha! Not to scare, but there are a lot of us in the business that lives through the last crisis saying “please don’t make the same mistakes again” and pondering why this industry seems to have such a short memory :)

As you said, the housing market is "healthier" now. It can take a few punches from higher interest rates and lower sale prices and not collapse like it did last time. I think the "kindling" this time is more in government debt and corporate debt, both of which have grown very fat on zero interest rates.

The trough is being taken away from those poor pigs and next comes the slaughter.

Don’t worry, we won’t make the same…


Oh. Well at least this coincides with rapidly rising home prices so no one will be backwards… wait, what?

The loud part -- "We're giving disadvantaged communities access to the dream of homeownership!"

The quiet part -- "This is exactly what we did last time. Borrowers with poor credit profiles, very little money down, and low incomes tend to be from disadvantaged communities, after all. Last time around you all called it predatory, and it was, but this time we're going to dress it up for social justice and dare you to call it out and dare you to oppose a bailout that really helps us but will be sold on equity grounds."

Giving a loan to a person who cannot handle it is ultimately doing them no favors.
 

twincyties

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Don’t worry, we won’t make the same…


Oh. Well at least this coincides with rapidly rising home prices so no one will be backwards… wait, what?
This is exactly the “short term memory” I was speaking to. You actually beat me to posting this article :)

One of the lessons learned (supposedly) from last crisis was not to do “pro-cyclical” stuff.

Meaning if the market is red hot don’t pour fuel on the fire. That is time to maybe tighten a little bit. Similarly, if the market starts to cool or decline that is not the time to dramatically decrease access to credit. It’s actually the time to maybe loosen a little bit.

Fannie and Freddie both let the pendulum swing to wildly in the mid 2000s. They started chasing market share when all the Alt-A and subprime MBS issuers were at their most active (and most crazy). Then when things started to go bad they swung too far the other direction and were not providing enough liquidity to the market.

The program you cite is prime example of loosening standards when we’re already very deep into (arguably at the end of) a market cycle.

I think it’s foolish, but just my opinion.
 

twincyties

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As you said, the housing market is "healthier" now. It can take a few punches from higher interest rates and lower sale prices and not collapse like it did last time. I think the "kindling" this time is more in government debt and corporate debt, both of which have grown very fat on zero interest rates.

The trough is being taken away from those poor pigs and next comes the slaughter.



The loud part -- "We're giving disadvantaged communities access to the dream of homeownership!"

The quiet part -- "This is exactly what we did last time. Borrowers with poor credit profiles, very little money down, and low incomes tend to be from disadvantaged communities, after all. Last time around you all called it predatory, and it was, but this time we're going to dress it up for social justice and dare you to call it out and dare you to oppose a bailout that really helps us but will be sold on equity grounds."

Giving a loan to a person who cannot handle it is ultimately doing them no favors.
This. 100%. Have said this a thousand times the last year in conversations with mortgage investors and housing advocates. Programs like this absolutely decimated the families and the communities they were intended to serve last time around. I believe there are ways to support those families and communities but this is not how you do it and it’s not the best timing.
 
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Sigmapolis

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This. 100%. Have said this a thousand times the last year in conversations with mortgage investors and housing advocates. Programs like this absolutely decimated the families and the communities they were intended to serve last time around. I believe there are ways to support those families and communities but this is not how you do it and it’s not the best timing.

But what about the poor banks and realtors that make all the commissions on those sales and transactions who don't have to give that money back when things go haywire like they might?

What about them?

:jimlad:
 
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twincyties

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But what about the poor banks and realtors that make all the commissions on those sales and transactions who don't have to give that money back when things go haywire like they might?

What about them?

:jimlad:
I would argue the banks (not the individual loan officers, but the corporation) are very much on the hook - especially if they out these loans in portfolio.

But yes - the fact that Realtors have no skin in the game is one of the most understated problems with our housing system.
 

HGoat1

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Wife is currently commuting ~120 miles daily for a new job she started last spring. We were thinking of moving, but may as well light our money on fire with our current house locked at 3% and 30 yr rates at 7%. Think we are going to rent a place closer to her job and try to airbnb our house on weekends in the meantime.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Wife is currently commuting ~120 miles daily for a new job she started last spring. We were thinking of moving, but may as well light our money on fire with our current house locked at 3% and 30 yr rates at 7%. Think we are going to rent a place closer to her job and try to airbnb our house on weekends in the meantime.
Each way or round trip?
 

SCNCY

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Wife is currently commuting ~120 miles daily for a new job she started last spring. We were thinking of moving, but may as well light our money on fire with our current house locked at 3% and 30 yr rates at 7%. Think we are going to rent a place closer to her job and try to airbnb our house on weekends in the meantime.

We had a house that we sold this Spring which had an interest rate at 3%; sold because my wife got a new job. We are renting right now as we don't know anything about the area we moved to, so wanted to feel it out prior to actually buying. However, if interest rates are that high, and home prices don't fall accordingly, I don't see how we can buy something decent to live in.
 

drmwevr08

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This is the down side of ownership. Great equity - zero mobility. Unfortunately, its hard to expect to keep the same job forever.
 

MJ29

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Yeah. We've been on the housing hunt for more than two years now. First, prices were insane (with good interest rates). Now the interest rates have gone up, and the prices are about the same. Sadly, the price range we can afford has dropped as the interest rates continue to rise. We might be stuck for a while.
 
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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Yeah. The price range we can afford has dropped as the interest rates continue to rise. We might be stuck for a while.
Things seem to equalize. It may take 1-2 years but once the inflation situation gets straightened out, then the prices will drop.
 

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