Perspective and Reality Check

[Dannynoonan]

It's been a long time since I've done a long-form article so thought I'd take the time...

I think I've said on here after every basketball or football game for 15 years that people always overreact to a win or a loss. Hybe builds exponentially when we look good in a game, and the doom and gloom breaks out when we struggle for a game - let alone a stretch of them. Likewise, people listen to all the offseason hype - building expectations that aren't usually founded in the reality of what our team looks like at each position. The reality is always somewhere in the middle.

Perspective:

A lot of fans are rightfully frustrated over the past several weeks. While emotions are natural, the program is still in a better place than it's ever been...

• We have our best coach in history.
• Our longest stretch of success.
• Are largely well respected throughout the country.
• Recruiting continues to trend in the right direction.
• Defense is playing as well as it ever has.
• Just graduated the best players we've arguably ever had at QB, WR, and TE.
• Are getting players into the NFL at a good clip.
• Have a few strong studs currently committed.

With that said, there are also some areas of concern...

• While better, our recruiting still ranks at the bottom of the Big 12.
• Our league is tougher than ever with even Kansas improving.
• We have a ton of youth throughout the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.
• Our o-line hasn't improved at all over the past number of years.
• Multi-year struggles inside the opponent's 30.
• Inconsistency in the special teams unit.
• There is a national narrative that maybe CMC has hit his ceiling in Ames.
• 80% of our passing runs through one receiver.

Reality Check:

This all leads to a little bit of a reality check...

Recruiting:

Iowa State is still a developmental and fundamentals program. We will never be above average in recruiting or ranked above 1/3rd to 1/2 of our league given various reasons. If we don't play fundamental football and develop our 2 and 3 star players into consistent winners, we're going to struggle. Fundamentals have been lacking in various ways and really need to be a focus. For all the talk of winning in the margins, we need to double down on the small things. We've lost more games on a lack of fundamentals and mistakes than anything over the past 5-7 years.

With that said, we do need another increase in recruiting as we have a lot of gaps that just don't have an established pipeline or team parity. A good example is o-line; our recruiting continues to struggle and despite a string of good QB and RB recruits/commits, they're never going to reach their potential without protection and blocking. We will struggle in the red zone when defenses lock down because we can't dictate anything.

Unfortunately, I do think we have less dynamic, speed-oriented talent at several positions. This is sometimes confused with schematic issues and play-calling because the players can't do what the plays need. Example - while there is talent at RB, each of the players have a unique style but all require fairly decent holes. Brock isn't the type of back Montgomery or Hall were where they could make something out of nothing. Sanders isn't strong enough to go inside. Silas is a wrecking ball but needs a bit of a head start. Brock is the only one in the 4-deep that looks like an every-down back, and even he will struggle because of other positions.

Schematics:

Defense is playing lights out, even with a lot of youth. Enough said.

Offense continues to struggle in the same places year-over-year. I don't know the root cause, but this needs to be the biggest focus area immediately and long-term. One could make a great case for schematics, and even the announcers the past 2 weeks have expressed bewilderment at many of the routes and play calling. While we've clearly had our best offense over the past 5 years, we've also had elite and dynamic talent at key positions that could mask any issues. Without that, our play calling doesn't appear to be sufficient. Running 3-yard routes on 3rd or 4th and long is becoming a national joke and identity. Running inside 3 straight plays for no gain isn't going to get it done. Those worked when we had dynamic players with great yards after contact/catch, but it hasn't adapted to current personnel.

Offensive rankings after 6 games;

• 110th for yards per play
• 114th for yards per point
• 123rd for yards per completion
• 190th for scoring offense
• 38th for plays per game
• 116th for rushing offense
• 115th for yards per run at 3.0 (down from 5.4 last year)
• 105th for rushing attempts per game.

Now, when you look at talent, experience, and schematics, I think they create a perfect storm for what we're seeing. While people will use anything to justify their opinions or agenda, I don't think there is any one thing that is at fault, but rather a whole lot of things. We're young, we're predictable, we're not tough up front, and we lack speed. The play book gets pretty small when those things converge. Unfortunately, I don't think that is a quick fix either. It's not all doom and gloom, but there are some rough patches ahead.

So where do we go? I think we need to buckle in for a rough remainder of the year. I said in the offseason I thought this looked like a rebuilding year with 6-7 wins and we're probably looking at 5 or 6 wins realistically unless something big happens. What I want to see though is a change in schematics, a focus on fundamentals, and an urgency to improve. We need to find an identity and double down. I want to see coaches speak more about the issues instead of deflecting. If we don't, a lot can be undone in one season.

Some of the talent committed will fit nicely with older versions of the current roster. Coaching can improve and new ideas can be mixed in. We have a solid defense to build around and some good young players throughout.

We need to show our 5-star culture if we're going to be ready to compete in the new Big 12 and keep recruiting on an upward trajectory.

Go Cyclones!

I am most disappointed in the OL and their lack of development. I think much of this is created in the weight room and I thought our new strength and conditioning coach would create that. I don't think we've had an OL drafted or playing in the NFL for a long time. EVERYTHING on offense (and defense) starts up front!!

 

[Clonefan32]

I don't necessarily disagree with anything the OP said, but the "look at all the players we lost" argument is a bit lost on me. I think so much of the frustration is held over from last year's team. I don't think you can have it both ways and cite the loss of key contributors and not treat last year as a huge disappointment. If they were as valuable as they now appear to have been, I don't think 7-6 can be viewed as anything but a letdown.

If I were to diagnose the fans' frustration, it's mostly that there hasn't been a shift in philosophy. His first few years, I could completely understand the conservative play. It's what you had to do to be competitive. But I think the issue became with increased talent and expectations, we continued to play very conservative, bland football. We were benefitted by elite playmakers in Hall, Montgomery and Hakeem who covered up deficiencies. But now I'm afraid we are left with the reality of a bland scheme with players who can't make up the difference for that.

 

[goody2012]

I don't necessarily disagree with anything the OP said, but the "look at all the players we lost" argument is a bit lost on me. I think so much of the frustration is held over from last year's team. I don't think you can have it both ways and cite the loss of key contributors and not treat last year as a huge disappointment. If they were as valuable as they now appear to have been, I don't think 7-6 can be viewed as anything but a letdown.

If I were to diagnose the fans' frustration, it's mostly that there hasn't been a shift in philosophy. His first few years, I could completely understand the conservative play. It's what you had to do to be competitive. But I think the issue became with increased talent and expectations, we continued to play very conservative, bland football. We were benefitted by elite playmakers in Hall, Montgomery and Hakeem who covered up deficiencies. But now I'm afraid we are left with the reality of a bland scheme with players who can't make up the difference for that.

We will likely never have better talent than other teams...

 

[Thomasrickj]

There are a few things really holding this team back

1. O Line play
2. Play calling, might be being conservative because of 1
3. Special Teams play
4. Dekkers (also has impact from 1). He has the most arm talent I've seen from an ISU QB but isn't near the level of QB instincts Purdy has, play making ability Seneca had, etc.. only 6 games so I still think he's the guy, just needs to get better there.

CMC really needs to reevaluate Manning, our o line coach and hiring a ST coach.

Dekkers has the arm, but he also has bad accuracy as he tends to throw behind his guys or at their feet. Even when Dekkers has had time (which is rare), he doesn’t make very accurate throws. JJ Kohl might end up as our starter at some point next year if Dekkers can’t improve his accuracy and instinct.

 

[State2015]

If recruiting is that bad now... it's only going to get worse with NIL folks.

Good reminder for everyone to keep donating to the collective. Money talks nowadays we absolutely need this to stay competitive!

 

[awd4cy]

You can say all you want about the players lost from last year, but just look at the defense this year. Lost almost everyone on that side of the ball and they haven’t taken a step back at all. When you have a solid system, you should be able to plug new players in and make it work like Heacock has done. There is no excuse for the offense being at the level they are right now.

 

[CycloneErik]

You can say all you want about the players lost from last year, but just look at the defense this year. Lost almost everyone on that side of the ball and they haven’t taken a step back at all. When you have a solid system, you should be able to plug new players in and make it work like Heacock has done. There is no excuse for the offense being at the level they are right now.

Kind of the whole idea in college sports is that your team will turn over players, but the program keeps moving along. Good coaching is supposed to keep things moving rather than fall apart like this.

 

[BryceC]

Our history is certainly nothing to write home about. But even under those circumstances, this offense absolutely sucks.

I looked at conference games only going back to 2000 for some perspective. Scoring for conference games only, this is the second worst scoring offense through 3 games. Now they have time to turn it around, but when you're nearly the worst in our meager history things are absolutely not going well.

2003​	8.9
2022​	14.7
2006​	15.0
2007​	17.6
2004​	18.5
2009​	18.9
2010​	21.5
2011​	21.6
2008​	22.0
2014​	24.0
2012​	24.2
2013​	24.3
2002​	25.1
2001​	25.3
2015​	25.4
2017​	26.1
2000​	27.5
2005​	29.0
2016​	29.4
2018​	29.6
2019​	32.3
2020​	34.7
2021​	34.8

 

[CoachHines3]

Another nice graph to show how we've been trending downward offensively.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Another nice graph to show how we've been trending downward offensively.

Not a good sign when we’re taking the A train express track straight to the Tigerhawk.

 

[stewart092284]

You can say all you want about the players lost from last year, but just look at the defense this year. Lost almost everyone on that side of the ball and they haven’t taken a step back at all. When you have a solid system, you should be able to plug new players in and make it work like Heacock has done. There is no excuse for the offense being at the level they are right now.

I agree with you there. That's the reason for my concern too. Its clearly not JUST players lost and the defense has proven that maybe to a greater level -2 linebackers, how many starting or major contributors in the secondary, 2 of 3 starters up front - and yet - here we are.

But here's my last or main defense of the offensive line:


We all have jobs right ? Or had jobs if retired, etc... if your boss constantly puts you in a really crappy position and routinely asks you to do things you're not capable of doing or don't have the ability to do - whose fault is it really? Yours for not being able to do that thing or your bosses' for knowing you can't achieve it and instead of providing you with a realistic vision and goal, continues to demand progress on a job you can't do?

 

[JM4CY]

Another nice graph to show how we've been trending downward offensively.

I can't believe we aren't worse offensively.

 

[stewart092284]

I can't believe we aren't worse offensively.

We should have paid SEMO and Ohio More

 

[JM4CY]

We should have paid SEMO and Ohio More

If we played them now, it would be a 13 to 9 type game.

 

[cygrads]

I am most disappointed in the OL and their lack of development. I think much of this is created in the weight room and I thought our new strength and conditioning coach would create that. I don't think we've had an OL drafted or playing in the NFL for a long time. EVERYTHING on offense (and defense) starts up front!!

I think the S&C coach has proven himself at other schools whereas our OL coach has not proven anything.

 

[Primetime26]

So haven't went back thru a lot of the talk but Anthony Johnson needs more credit. Always giving 110%. Fights for every inch. You can see him getting in other teams face several times per game. Dude wants to win bad.

Without his effort we aren't even in that game and Manning looks even worse.

 

[MeowingCows]

So haven't went back thru a lot of the talk but Anthony Johnson needs more credit. Always giving 110%. Fights for every inch. You can see him getting in other teams face several times per game. Dude wants to win bad.

Without his effort we aren't even in that game and Manning looks even worse.

Johnson and Tampa have stuck out very obviously as major contributors and great players who really want to win. The improvement from last to this season particularly for Tampa is huge.

 

[CoachHines3]

I can't believe we aren't worse offensively.

give it another week

 

[rochclone]

You can say all you want about the players lost from last year, but just look at the defense this year. Lost almost everyone on that side of the ball and they haven’t taken a step back at all. When you have a solid system, you should be able to plug new players in and make it work like Heacock has done. There is no excuse for the offense being at the level they are right now.

I do think that the defense benefits from only being on the field 26-27 minutes of the game. We saw last year against Texas Tech and West Virginia that the defense can have issues as well if they have to play 32-34 minutes of the game.

 

[JUKEBOX]

We'll see what happens this year, but I think it's a gross overreaction to say we're some kind of program in decline.

I strongly believe with the personnel we have today, we could be undefeated right now with our schedule. I don't think that changes who we are as a team, but we've lost by 11 points in 3 games. We haven't been completely mismatched on talent against our peers. I think a strong argument can be made that with modifications with scheme or a few position groups playing better, we win those games.

Now the talent parity in the Big 12 this year is higher than it's ever been, so I think it's possible we could make adjustments and win out, or continue our struggles and lose out. I think what we should hope for is to split the games, make a bowl, win it, and regroup in the offseason.

Either way I don't think we're far away at the moment from having a solid squad, and I think we could still salvage a decent season.