Big 12 Conference Realignment

[exCyDing]

Yeah, that exit fee goes from $3M to $16.5M, iirc if they want to leave in '24-25 after June 1.

Yes I agree. I was talking a bit more about possible moves to the Pac. Which means if they want to add from the Mt West, there are some dates that come in to play....obviously some of those can be worked out. But for a move by 2024 when USCLA leave they are coming up on hard dates for some potential schools.

Some/all of these are not the end all be all hard dates that something has to happen by. But they are some key dates to incentivise getting things done. Meaning I would think they would want to have a deal done, before brining in new members, and those new members have some dates that things would be important for them.

Im sure both sides would want to know what kind of a deal they are going to get for adding/joining the Pac,

Yikes, that MWC buyout gets steep. The PAC must be either confident that nobody's going to leave for the B12 (or incredibly naive) if they let this drag on past June 1st.

The PAC could really wait themselves in a situation where they're beyond ******. Say the B12 poaches four schools and the PAC is down to 6 remaining members. No TV deal. No media outlets want a 6 team conference. All the backfill options have exit fees in the neighborhood of what a new deal would pay for a year. Schedules are full of holes that need to be filled on short notice.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Yikes, that MWC buyout gets steep. The PAC must be either confident that nobody's going to leave for the B12 (or incredibly naive) if they let this drag on past June 1st.

The PAC could really wait themselves in a situation where they're beyond ******. Say the B12 poaches four schools and the PAC is down to 6 remaining members. No TV deal. No media outlets want a 6 team conference. All the backfill options have exit fees in the neighborhood of what a new deal would pay for a year. Schedules are full of holes that need to be filled on short notice.

A 13 mil increase in the buyout isn’t steep, it’s legit nothing.

They make that back in less than a year if they move to the PAC with a full share. They only get around 4 mil in their current deal and even if the new PAC deal is trash at around 25mil they still come out significantly ahead.

 

[2speedy1]

A 13 mil increase in the buyout isn’t steep, it’s legit nothing.

They make that back in less than a year if they move to the PAC with a full share. They only get around 4 mil in their current deal and even if the new PAC deal is trash at around 25mil they still come out significantly ahead.

You are right. But it does put some deadlines on a few things. Most would choose to get something done before having to spend the extra money. It is not an end all, but it is a potential push to get something done.

Although, if there is nothing all the table, they cant really do a deal, deadline or not.

I had read it was the end of June not June 1, not sure which it is.

 

[TheHelgo]

A 13 mil increase in the buyout isn’t steep, it’s legit nothing.

They make that back in less than a year if they move to the PAC with a full share. They only get around 4 mil in their current deal and even if the new PAC deal is trash at around 25mil they still come out significantly ahead.

I'm pretty sure SDSU would not think this way. If they are only getting $4M now and the PAC deal is $25M, they likely still lose on a deal like this, as there is no way they get a full share at the beginning, or even over the first several years. At best they likely break even if the payout goes to $16M. That will also likely get negotiated, but to say that the extra $13M is 'legit nothing' sounds like arrogant BIG mindset.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I'm pretty sure SDSU would not think this way. If they are only getting $4M now and the PAC deal is $25M, they likely still lose on a deal like this, as there is no way they get a full share at the beginning, or even over the first several years. At best they likely break even if the payout goes to $16M. That will also likely get negotiated, but to say that the extra $13M is 'legit nothing' sounds like arrogant BIG mindset.

Even if your scenario is right (don’t really think it is) then they break even year 1 and then make 4 times their current rate in year two. Without knowing the new PAC deal it’s truly hard to judge but also I don’t think it’s automatic that SDSU wouldn’t get a full share. OUT did, the LA schools did, I think the new Big12 schools all did too.

 

[exCyDing]

Even if your scenario is right (don’t really think it is) then they break even year 1 and then make 4 times their current rate in year two. Without knowing the new PAC deal it’s truly hard to judge but also I don’t think it’s automatic that SDSU wouldn’t get a full share. OUT did, the LA schools did, I think the new Big12 schools all did too.

It depends on what a reconfigured PAC would be able to pull for a TV deal. If the rumors for the current 10 are right ($25-$30M), it wouldn't be shocking to see them slide towards $20M depending on who leave and who joins. If WA or OR leave, it very well might slip under $20M.

Long term, yes, it would work to the MWC schools' benefit to make the move. There are just a lot of hurdles to get that kind of money up front. If the MWC schools don't have it, and the PAC conference doesn't have it, do the remaining PAC members kick in for it and get it back through unequal revenue distributions for a few years? Remember, a lot of their AD budgets are on the small side for P5 to begin with.

I think it would get done of the PAC's survival was on the line. At the end of the day, the PAC probably can't make have a year with 6 or 8 members and no TV deal, and the MWC schools would be silly to not get under the PAC name.

 

[TheHelgo]

Even if your scenario is right (don’t really think it is) then they break even year 1 and then make 4 times their current rate in year two. Without knowing the new PAC deal it’s truly hard to judge but also I don’t think it’s automatic that SDSU wouldn’t get a full share. OUT did, the LA schools did, I think the new Big12 schools all did too.

They wouldn't get a full share because the only way the legacy PAC is satisfied is if they can get their $ up, and they only do this by inviting some MWC and giving them partial shares to pad their own takes. If the PAC is offered $25M per team and then invite SDSU, I highly doubt the media partner just says: "sure thing - we'll add another $25M per year for SDSU".

For a team currently making $4M, a $13M bump in separation fee is not 'chump change' - even if you are quadrupling your take.

That's like paying 4 times for a vacation because you decided you were too busy to make the travel arrangements on a Tuesday, while knowing that the prices would quadruple on Wednesday. Even if you are loaded, that is just dumb.

 

[isucy86]

A 13 mil increase in the buyout isn’t steep, it’s legit nothing.

They make that back in less than a year if they move to the PAC with a full share. They only get around 4 mil in their current deal and even if the new PAC deal is trash at around 25mil they still come out significantly ahead.

Speculation I have read is SDSU and SMU are not looking for a full share, which seems realistic. I doubt prospective Pac12 media partners are willing to pay $20-$25M for possible Pac12 realignment adds.

If SMU, SDSU, etc. are part of the Pac12 they would get around $22M annually of playoff money that each P5 conference school will receive starting with 2026 season. So in just 1 year SDSU would make up it's exit fee in playoff monies. G5 schools at most will get around $5M after 12 team playoff goes out to bid. But who knows, the P5 conferences could give G5 a smaller share. That's why the AAC Commissioner has an atomic wedgie about usage of P5 vs G5 terminology.

That said, it would not surprise me if the Pac12 isn't only looking to give them less than a full media rights share (media rights holder dictated), but the Pac12 could also take a share of SDSU and SMU's playoff money.

 

[CyCrazy]

Even if your scenario is right (don’t really think it is) then they break even year 1 and then make 4 times their current rate in year two. Without knowing the new PAC deal it’s truly hard to judge but also I don’t think it’s automatic that SDSU wouldn’t get a full share. OUT did, the LA schools did, I think the new Big12 schools all did too.

Not sure I would compare OUT getting a full share to SDSU getting one. OuT are top 10 brands.

 

[t-noah]

Probably nothing, just like all of the past BREAKING NEWS

They will be discussing the adverse effects of climate change and bacterial necrosis with regards to the saguaro cactus. Pretty sure.

 

[t-noah]

Not sure I would compare OUT getting a full share to SDSU getting one. OuT are top 10 brands.

Not in my book.

 

[2speedy1]

They wouldn't get a full share because the only way the legacy PAC is satisfied is if they can get their $ up, and they only do this by inviting some MWC and giving them partial shares to pad their own takes. If the PAC is offered $25M per team and then invite SDSU, I highly doubt the media partner just says: "sure thing - we'll add another $25M per year for SDSU".

For a team currently making $4M, a $13M bump in separation fee is not 'chump change' - even if you are quadrupling your take.

That's like paying 4 times for a vacation because you decided you were too busy to make the travel arrangements on a Tuesday, while knowing that the prices would quadruple on Wednesday. Even if you are loaded, that is just dumb.

Speculation I have read is SDSU and SMU are not looking for a full share, which seems realistic. I doubt prospective Pac12 media partners are willing to pay $20-$25M for possible Pac12 realignment adds.

If SMU, SDSU, etc. are part of the Pac12 they would get around $22M annually of playoff money that each P5 conference school will receive starting with 2026 season. So in just 1 year SDSU would make up it's exit fee in playoff monies. G5 schools at most will get around $5M after 12 team playoff goes out to bid. But who knows, the P5 conferences could give G5 a smaller share. That's why the AAC Commissioner has an atomic wedgie about usage of P5 vs G5 terminology.

That said, it would not surprise me if the Pac12 isn't only looking to give them less than a full media rights share (media rights holder dictated), but the Pac12 could also take a share of SDSU and SMU's playoff money.

The only issue is for a school to join a higher conference, like the PAC it requires them to spend a lot more money. Especially in the early years to upgrade everything to the standards of the higher conference.

So by taking a smaller share or paying extra exit fees this hurts their budget to get to the level of the new conference.

Even if they make much more, their expenditures will significantly increase, thus taking less, or having to pay increased exit fees because of a deadline missed, hurts.

Again, none of this is an end all, but it does mean they are some things they must consider.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

The only issue is for a school to join a higher conference, like the PAC it requires them to spend a lot more money. Especially in the early years to upgrade everything to the standards of the higher conference.

So by taking a smaller share or paying extra exit fees this hurts their budget to get to the level of the new conference.

Even if they make much more, their expenditures will significantly increase, thus taking less, or having to pay increased exit fees because of a deadline missed, hurts.

Again, none of this is an end all, but it does mean they are some things they must consider.

That’s a fair point, does the Pac count as a higher conference though? I’m not even being glib, they have Oregon state and Washington state which have smaller stadiums the SDSU does already.

 

[BCClone]

Even if your scenario is right (don’t really think it is) then they break even year 1 and then make 4 times their current rate in year two. Without knowing the new PAC deal it’s truly hard to judge but also I don’t think it’s automatic that SDSU wouldn’t get a full share. OUT did, the LA schools did, I think the new Big12 schools all did too.

OUT did due to being worth more than their old contract and raising the payouts. LAs schools got the big ten an increase so of course they go in at full share. Big 12 newbies are not at full share right away.

 

[isucy86]

That’s a fair point, does the Pac count as a higher conference though? I’m not even being glib, they have Oregon state and Washington state which have smaller stadiums the SDSU does already.

Not being familiar with west coast athletic facilities. I would be curious how SDSU and SMU facilities stack up against Pac12 schools. It would not surprise me if both those schools are equal to or better than many existing Pac12 schools.

 

[2speedy1]

That’s a fair point, does the Pac count as a higher conference though? I’m not even being glib, they have Oregon state and Washington state which have smaller stadiums the SDSU does already.

I understand that, but I am not just talking the stadium. All athletic facilities, performance centers, practice facilities, support facilities, and other sports facilities adds up.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

OUT did due to being worth more than their old contract and raising the payouts. LAs schools got the big ten an increase so of course they go in at full share. Big 12 newbies are not at full share right away.

Oh I 100% thought the new big 12 members were right away. My bad, I retract that comparison then

 

[LurkingClone]

UConn to the Big 12?

https://www.journalinquirer.com/spo...cle_f0cc645a-f396-11ed-8f89-6faf4a48fdf2.html

 

[CascadeClone]

UConn to the Big 12?

https://www.journalinquirer.com/spo...cle_f0cc645a-f396-11ed-8f89-6faf4a48fdf2.html

At this point, I think it would be easier to start listing the schools that are NOT "rumored" or "reported" to be "under consideration".

Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Montana State
Palmer School of Chiropractic
UW-Platteville
Davenport Assumption
...

 

[isucy86]

UConn to the Big 12?

https://www.journalinquirer.com/spo...cle_f0cc645a-f396-11ed-8f89-6faf4a48fdf2.html

A lot of this chatter is not realistic in 2023. The realistic candidates (50/50ish) are Pac12 schools.

If this was 2030 then the possibilities grow to G5 schools that shine.

It's fun to speculate on ACC schools, but the odds are very small ACC schools could break GOR and if they do it's probably 3-4 years out. And once we hit the early 2030's the ACC exit fee and GOR probably make it cost prohibitive to leave 4-5 years early.

Texas and OU could do so because their overall athletic department revenues are $50M(OU) to $125M(UT) higher than schools like UNC, NCST, UVA, VaTech.