Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[WhoISthis]

Why would any school not guaranteed a landing spot in either the Big 10 or SEC risk voting the ACC out of existence to the help out those that are guaranteed a spot in those two conferences? What does Pitt, BC, WF or other have to gain by voting "yes" and dissolving the conference? Nothing that I can see.

Money and preferential outcomes on what happens when schools leave

If the ACC is going to lose schools to P2, the schools you mentioned benefit by getting something out of the GOR. Settlement

Being able to stand in the way of several schools making a combined 100+ million more per year is good, finding a way to get some of that $ over the next 13 years is better. The last thing they do is let this reach 2036, which means pissing away millions and also now hoping you land somewhere better than the American

 

[isucy86]

With how far out the ACC contract goes, I think you'd have to include the big 12 there as well. While they'd have less to gain than those jumping to the B10\SEC, the money still may make more sense at some point than with the current ACC payout

Especially if the ACC teams "left behind" split the exit fee. With the Big12, 8 teams are splitting $100M.

If the ACC left behinds see the writing on the wall, they could let the Magnificent 7 jump early and pay the ACC exit fee. In this case the 7 "left behinds" would each get around $120M.

Plus, as you mention the ACCN deal with ESPN is with $17M annually vs. the Big12 deal is around $32M.

So $15M more a year plus a big exit fee receipt might be attractive to ACC schools with a Big12 invite.

 

[WhoISthis]

They are, but the GOR only applies to sports they are full ACC members. ND received around $11M from ACC and their current deal with NBC still runs for a couple years. So ND's GOR expense could be $120M.

It all comes down to what NBC is willing to pay on the Irish's next TV deal. If ND gets $50M+, my bet is they stay independent.

It comes down to NBC, CBS, and ABC/Disney. Two of those are business partners on BIG

To maintain independence, ND needs an OTA that will pay them $50+ million as an independent. Or some on both, although consistent provider is important to ND

Due to contracts with ACC, SEC, and Big 12, getting the exposure ND wants on ABC isn’t a certainty, and NBC is more complicated now with BIG. Although Warren’s overpromise to NBC may make the presidents more willing to give NBC concessions on rolling ND deal under BIG deal. ND in BIG on NBC. Fox benefits from that, as would CBS (road BIG games)

If the networks work together or horse trade, ND may find it tough to avoid being in a P2.

 

[HouClone]

From what I recall, the President at Colorado spoke out against the Big 12 in the early days of this mess, but has been radio silent since (unlike the other 3 corners Presidents). Perhaps I missed the quote you're referring to. Would love to see what you're referencing if anyone has it.

Here is what I was remembering.

Colorado chancellor talks Pac-12 expansion, Big 12 rumor, Deion Sanders and recruiting

Colorado chancellor Phil DiStefano discusses the impact of Deion Sanders and how a campus policy change helped pave the way for a football resurgence.

www.usatoday.com

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Money and preferential outcomes on what happens when schools leave

If the ACC is going to lose schools to P2, the schools you mentioned benefit by getting something out of the GOR. Settlement

Being able to stand in the way of several schools making a combined 100+ million more per year is good, finding a way to get some of that $ over the next 13 years is better. The last thing they do is let this reach 2036, which means pissing away millions and also now hoping you land somewhere better than the American

But is the money these schools get going to be better? Currently the ACC is splitting up TV money to 14 schools, while the Big 12 is only splitting with 10. The four new schools are not getting a full share when they join this summer, thereby giving each existing school more money. Why would Pitt, BC, and others give up a full share of the ACC revenue for an equal amount or maybe less with buy in years to join the B12, and travel further when they can stay where they are, until the B12 redoes their deal in 5 more years.? The Big 12 is always going to be there for some of these schools, and the SEC and B10 cannot take all of them, to me it makes no sense to travel further and make at best 3 to 5 million per school.

 

[cykadelic2]

It comes down to NBC, CBS, and ABC/Disney. Two of those are business partners on BIG

To maintain independence, ND needs an OTA that will pay them $50+ million as an independent. Or some on both, although consistent provider is important to ND

Due to contracts with ACC, SEC, and Big 12, getting the exposure ND wants on ABC isn’t a certainty, and NBC is more complicated now with BIG. Although Warren’s overpromise to NBC may make the presidents more willing to give NBC concessions on rolling ND deal under BIG deal. ND in BIG on NBC. Fox benefits from that, as would CBS (road BIG games)

If the networks work together or horse trade, ND may find it tough to avoid being in a P2.

ESPN will work with NBC and ND to insure that ND's payout requirements are met and not lose the ND games at ACC venues that ESPN owns and will continue to prioritize.

 

[Nolaeer]

Washington and oregon can anchor the PAC. as long as they stay, and the PAC gets a TV deal in the ballpark of the Big 12, I dont see any team bolting.

If the BIG takes oregon and washingotn, PAC is done.
If the PAC TV deal isnt on broadcast TV, the PAC is done.
If Pac TV deal is 20 million per team, which is what ESPN offered, the PAC is done.

FWIW, as a WVU fan, Id love to get Uconn. great hoops, and an easy win in football. It is the state school for conn, which isnt saying much, but they would draw decent crowds in footbaLL with WVU, Cinn, and UCF in town.

we dont need 2 teams in Utah.
take ARZ, Colo., Arz state and uconn, and do 4 team pods.
WVU-Uconn, Cinn-UCF is eastern pod.

 

[IceCyIce]

But is the money these schools get going to be better? Currently the ACC is splitting up TV money to 14 schools, while the Big 12 is only splitting with 10. The four new schools are not getting a full share when they join this summer, thereby giving each existing school more money. Why would Pitt, BC, and others give up a full share of the ACC revenue for an equal amount or maybe less with buy in years to join the B12, and travel further when they can stay where they are, until the B12 redoes their deal in 5 more years.? The Big 12 is always going to be there for some of these schools, and the SEC and B10 cannot take all of them, to me it makes no sense to travel further and make at best 3 to 5 million per school.

If you're ACC (or PAC) that's the risk you need to weigh out. B12 will give you X now and X later. The B12 played the long game getting in front of the PAC for TV deal and it appears to be a positive conference changing decision. If your the PAC or the ACC and you have an option now to go to B12 you would be foolish not to accept. BIG will take OR and WA now or in the future. BIG and SEC will destroy the ACC now or in the future. This is why if you're 4 Corners or ACC teams you jump now while you can. You never konw what the landscape will look like in 4-5 years.

 

[isucy86]

ESPN will work with NBC and ND to insure that ND's payout requirements are met and not lose the ND games at ACC venues that ESPN owns and will continue to prioritize.

Not seeing the logic to that argument related to ESPN & NBC working together. I think NBC can stand on its own.

NBC has paid $350M annually to televise Big10 games during primetime through 2029. If NBC decides having a Notre Dame & Big10 double header on its schedule 7 or 8 Saturdays a year maximizes it's Big10 investment, it will step up and pay Notre Dame the $75Mish it's asking for.

NBC is paying $22M+ PER GAME to televise Big10 games. Seems like paying Notre Dame $10M per home game to be the lead-in for NBC's Big10 primetime game is a good deal.

ESPN is just along for the ride in televising it's 2-3 ND vs. ACC games a year.

The real question for me is FOX. If NBC doesn't step up, does FOX make it lucrative enough to encourage ND to Big10? Or do they pay ND enough money to remain independent and not fully part of ESPN's portfolio.

Plus, it seems like ESPN could dig itself in a bit of a hole with ACC schools if it is willing to invest $75M in 7 or 8 ND football games, while paying $250M to televise EVERY ACC team in EVERY sport.

 

[ClonerJams]

Washington and oregon can anchor the PAC. as long as they stay, and the PAC gets a TV deal in the ballpark of the Big 12, I dont see any team bolting.

If the BIG takes oregon and washingotn, PAC is done.
If the PAC TV deal isnt on broadcast TV, the PAC is done.
If Pac TV deal is 20 million per team, which is what ESPN offered, the PAC is done.

FWIW, as a WVU fan, Id love to get Uconn. great hoops, and an easy win in football. It is the state school for conn, which isnt saying much, but they would draw decent crowds in footbaLL with WVU, Cinn, and UCF in town.

we dont need 2 teams in Utah.
take ARZ, Colo., Arz state and uconn, and do 4 team pods.
WVU-Uconn, Cinn-UCF is eastern pod.

If we're just doing basketball adds like Gonzaga and Villanova, then UConn would be a good addition to fit that strategy. I don't love bringing them in for football though. For football get Arizona and Colorado. If you could get Washington and Oregon, then you would be set at 16 schools for football. I think everyone would understand Washington and Oregon would just be short-term additions as they seem destined for the Big 10.

Maybe with the ACC turmoil you could get a Virginia Tech and Pitt.

 

[BCClone]

Washington and oregon can anchor the PAC. as long as they stay, and the PAC gets a TV deal in the ballpark of the Big 12, I dont see any team bolting.

If the BIG takes oregon and washingotn, PAC is done.
If the PAC TV deal isnt on broadcast TV, the PAC is done.
If Pac TV deal is 20 million per team, which is what ESPN offered, the PAC is done.

FWIW, as a WVU fan, Id love to get Uconn. great hoops, and an easy win in football. It is the state school for conn, which isnt saying much, but they would draw decent crowds in footbaLL with WVU, Cinn, and UCF in town.

we dont need 2 teams in Utah.
take ARZ, Colo., Arz state and uconn, and do 4 team pods.
WVU-Uconn, Cinn-UCF is eastern pod.

The one other thing that can blow up the PAC is a payout similar to ours but UO and UW want uneven that makes a spread between ours and the PACs payout for a couple of the 4 corners.

 

[cykadelic2]

Not seeing the logic to that argument related to ESPN & NBC working together. I think NBC can stand on its own.

NBC has paid $350M annually to televise Big10 games during primetime through 2029. If NBC decides having a Notre Dame & Big10 double header on its schedule 7 or 8 Saturdays a year maximizes it's Big10 investment, it will step up and pay Notre Dame the $75Mish it's asking for.

NBC is paying $22M+ PER GAME to televise Big10 games. Seems like paying Notre Dame $10M per home game to be the lead-in for NBC's Big10 primetime game is a good deal.

ESPN is just along for the ride in televising it's 2-3 ND vs. ACC games a year.

The real question for me is FOX. If NBC doesn't step up, does FOX make it lucrative enough to encourage ND to Big10? Or do they pay ND enough money to remain independent and not fully part of ESPN's portfolio.

Plus, it seems like ESPN could dig itself in a bit of a hole with ACC schools if it is willing to invest $75M in 7 or 8 ND football games, while paying $250M to televise EVERY ACC team in EVERY sport.

ESPN has the rights to 4 ND games at ACC venues this upcoming season. Those games are of significant value to ESPN and the ACC. ESPN will likely enhance the ACC package in some fashion to keep those ND games. ESPN is not going to let those games walk to Fox/CBS/B10 especially after losing the B10. They have a vested interest in working with NBC to keep those ND games split between the two of them or going after all of them.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

If you're ACC (or PAC) that's the risk you need to weigh out. B12 will give you X now and X later. The B12 played the long game getting in front of the PAC for TV deal and it appears to be a positive conference changing decision. If your the PAC or the ACC and you have an option now to go to B12 you would be foolish not to accept. BIG will take OR and WA now or in the future. BIG and SEC will destroy the ACC now or in the future. This is why if you're 4 Corners or ACC teams you jump now while you can. You never konw what the landscape will look like in 4-5 years.

The ACC and P12 are two totally different problems, and comparing the two is apples and oranges. The ACC has a TV contract locking up everyone for another 13 years, while the P12 still has nothing on the table. Totally different situations and while 5 to 7 teams want out of the ACC, the GOR prevents that from happening. So again, I ask, if I am one of the other 7 schools why would I vote for dissolving the conference to help those schools?

P12 schools is a totally different spot, we think the B12 has offered the 4 corner schools, we know that Oregon and Washington want the B10 and more important, their GOR is running out and they do not have a TV contract going forward. Without seeing the amount of money that the P12 is going to get, it's hard to judge if it's better for the 4 corner schools to jump or stay put? But comparing their situation to the ACC is nothing like the other.

 

[isucy86]

ESPN has the rights to 4 ND games at ACC venues this upcoming season. Those games are of significant value to ESPN and the ACC. ESPN will likely enhance the ACC package in some fashion to keep those ND games. ESPN is not going to let those games walk to Fox/CBS/B10 especially after losing the B10. They have a vested interest in working with NBC to keep those ND games split between the two of them or going after all of them.

How can ESPN work with NBC? You need to put some meat on the bone. NBC has deep enough pockets to not need ESPN.

Plus ESPN can't "enhance" their ACCN deal without reopening a contract which runs through 2036. The Magnificent 7 ACC schools would love to renegotiate the deal. If I was FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc., I wouldn't take any less than Big10/SEC type money.

 

[cykadelic2]

How can ESPN work with NBC? You need to put some meat on the bone. NBC has deep enough pockets to not need ESPN.

Plus ESPN can't "enhance" their ACCN deal without reopening a contract which runs through 2036. The Magnificent 7 ACC schools would love to renegotiate the deal. If I was FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc., I wouldn't take any less than Big10/SEC type money.

Yeah, if NBC on their own offers ND enough money to keep them happy on an extended deal with them, then ESPN won't be engaged. But if they don't, ESPN will certainly explore enhancing their ACC contract to insure those ND/ACC games are retained for them and ND stays indy with NBC. And that contract can be enhanced without jeopardizing or modifying the ACC GOR while increasing payouts some for the likes of Clemson and FSU. They sure as hell won't get SEC/B10 money, ESPN has the negotiating leverage on them through 2036 but they also want to retain ND games at ACC venues and not risk ND going to the B10 and other networks.

 

[Gonzo]

Yeah, if NBC on their own offers ND enough money to keep them happy on an extended deal with them, then ESPN won't be engaged. But if they don't, ESPN will certainly explore enhancing their ACC contract to insure those ND/ACC games are retained for them and ND stays indy with NBC. And that contract can be enhanced without jeopardizing or modifying the ACC GOR while increasing payouts some for the likes of Clemson and FSU. They sure as hell won't get SEC/B10 money, ESPN has the negotiating leverage on them through 2036 but they also want to retain ND games at ACC venues and not risk ND going to the B10 and other networks.

I thought I'd read that ND wanted $75 mill/year from their next media deal. I can't imagine NBC covering that all by themselves, so it'd have to be a combined NBC/ESPN deal, I'd think.

 

[SCNCY]

I thought I'd read that ND wanted $75 mill/year from their next media deal. I can't imagine NBC covering that all by themselves, so it'd have to be a combined NBC/ESPN deal, I'd think.

Asking for that much would be tough, because not all of those games are home games and thus, under the TV contract of the home school. That’s the advantage of a conference, conference games are under the same TV deal, so theirs more value to the media partners.

 

[isucy86]

I thought I'd read that ND wanted $75 mill/year from their next media deal. I can't imagine NBC covering that all by themselves, so it'd have to be a combined NBC/ESPN deal, I'd think.

You guys do realize NBC Universal is owned by Comcast. Comcast is just as financially strong as Disney. NBC does not need ESPN/Disney to write a $75M check. Comcast & Disney are currently fighting over the value of HULU- they are talking tens of BILLIONS. Paying Notre Dame $50M or $75M is not driven by financial considerations.

What would a combined NBC/ESPN deal look like? NBC giving up Notre Dame homes games? NBC Universal just invested $350M in televising Big10 games on NBC Saturday nights. To maximize their Big10 investment, NBC is going to want the strongest viewership lead-in possible. I would think that is ND Football, but maybe NBC has another property that can bring similar viewership at a lower price.

 

[RustShack]

ND’s deal with the ACC/ESPN is what it is. It’s the NBC deal coming open soon.

 

[Gonzo]

You guys do realize NBC Universal is owned by Comcast. Comcast is just as financially strong as Disney. NBC does not need ESPN/Disney to write a $75M check. Comcast & Disney are currently fighting over the value of HULU- they are talking tens of BILLIONS. Paying Notre Dame $50M or $75M is not driven by financial considerations.

What would a combined NBC/ESPN deal look like? NBC giving up Notre Dame homes games? NBC Universal just invested $350M in televising Big10 games on NBC Saturday nights. To maximize their Big10 investment, NBC is going to want the strongest viewership lead-in possible. I would think that is ND Football, but maybe NBC has another property that can bring similar viewership at a lower price.

So you're saying NBC will cut a $75 million check every year to ND for 6 games?

As for what an NBC/ESPN deal would look like, I'd imagine NBC would pay XX dollars for ND's home games and ESPN would pay XX dollars road games at ACC opponents.