Its only a leap because ND is currently paying $25M on its current deal negotiated in 2013. NBC is paying $350M to televise 14-16 Big10 games a year during primetime. That will average $23.3M a game. NBC can keep Notre Dame for around $11M/year for 7 games. If anything I would think NBC would be exploring ways to fill those other 7 weekends with some type of college FB content.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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Yes. NBC is already paying $350M a year for 14-16 Big10 games.
ESPN is already paying XX dollars for road games at ACC opponents. Its part of ESPN's ACCN deal and ND gets paid by the ACC conference around $11M for those games. Not a good deal for the schools, but that is why we have the Magnificent 7.
Yeah and those are going to be prime time games featuring plum matchups with massive brands... tOSU, Michigan, USC, Penn St., Notre Dame, etc.
You think NBC will be willing to pay that much up for daytime ND home games against programs like Central Michigan, Tennessee St., Pitt, Wake Forest, Navy, etc.?
Not sure why you're perplexed by the idea of ESPN kicking in some money to keep ND road games at ACC venues? And no, NBC isn't planning to give up any ND home games.
And we all know NBC is owned by Comcast but NBC has not been heavily engaged with other pro sports such as MLB and the NBA and, as of now, only have 2 CFB games/week (when ND is at home) and limited CBB on USA Network. There likely is a price point that Comcast will not let NBC exceed and if that point comes into play, ESPN could partner with NBC to keep ND package as-is.
NBC just agreed to pay $110 million to stream 1 NFL playoff game on Peacock.
I think they can step up and pay Notre Dame $60-$70 million for 7 home games.
I think they can step up and pay Notre Dame $60-$70 million for 7 home games.
Yep.
Because if NBC doesn't have ND as a lead it, then FB fans will watch games on ABC, CBS or ESPN during the 2:30 to 6:30p window and keep the channel on to watch an SEC, Big12 or ACC game for their primetime football game.
A solid lead-in game is critical, so NBC will pay. Maybe not $75M, but that's a starting point for negotiations. Afterall, ND is also getting paid $11M plus from the ACCN. So in the end if ND gets $60-65M they will probably be happy.
Yeah that was my original point, that I have a hard time seeing NBC shouldering $75 million/year to ND all by itself.
When the BIG took Maryland from the ACC, they just paid the ACC the 50 million exit fee.
if the BIG just snagged FSU, filed some kind of lawsuit saying damages that far into the future are against p[ublic policy, etc, etc, and pays to settle, that would give them a florida blue blood before 2036.
i doubt they'd take 2 teams, as that doubles the risk. But beating the SEC to FSU may be worth spending 200 million or so. they paid 50 for terps.
if the BIG just snagged FSU, filed some kind of lawsuit saying damages that far into the future are against p[ublic policy, etc, etc, and pays to settle, that would give them a florida blue blood before 2036.
i doubt they'd take 2 teams, as that doubles the risk. But beating the SEC to FSU may be worth spending 200 million or so. they paid 50 for terps.
Because ESPN can't just "kick in" some money. The ACCN contract would have to be amended to specify how much money. And I bet FSU and Clemson would want more money for more than just the 2-4 ND games a year at ACC sites.
Rumor has it NBC wants to go hard after the NBA. NBC just doesn't have CFB on Saturdays, it also has Premier League soccer for the early window (11a-2p). The other change is Peacock, NBC's subscription based service. Comcast understands the value of live sports to grow subscriptions and why they televised a Notre Dame football game on Peacock and are going to televise an NFL playoff game soley on Peacock.
They can do it all by themselves, Comcast is bigger than Disney. But every TV media rights deal is a negotiation, so NBC will counter somewhere in the $50's/$60's and we'll see where they end up. NBC has $350M invested in it's Big10 TV deal, it's not going to quibble with ND for $10-$15M a year.
If ND gets $65M from NBC and $11M from ACCN- they would be ahead of Big10 & SEC's TV deals. Then it's a matter of ND making sure they are part of the CFP and payouts as an independent.
Agree with your statement. PAC is in a different situation "danger close and Eminent". The ACC's situation is similar to the PAC "termoil, broken trust, appearant money problems, but the time frame is such that time could heal the wounds? I doubt it?
We do know there is no room for the PAC and B12, thankfully it appears the BIG and B12 will will eliminate the current version of the PAC. What we don't know, is there room for the ACC and B12?
First, yeah, that's what I said was that I don't think NBC would pay $75 mill/year. I never said they couldn't. I said I didn't think they would.
Second, after the first few years of the new B1G deal, no, $76 mill/year isn't going to put ND ahead of B1G and SEC payouts.
Third, none of us know what the h*ll is going to happen.
The ACC part of it is already done. They get what they get from the ACC/ESPN. Which is not going to change for 13+ years.
The NBC portion is what is open.
I have also heard that they want $75M for the next contract, what is not clear is if they want $75M just from the NBC portion, or total including what they get from the ACC/ESPN.
ND currently gets about $11M from the ACC/ESPN, and get about $22M from NBC. (which I believe in the last negotiation they agreed to share a small portion of with the ACC, but that may have been only for 2020.)
As reported ND gets $30-35M per year total for its media deal. Which if they wanted to get to 75 combined they would need about 65M from NBC, or they want 75M from NBC to get them close to 90M total.
I dont know if there is enough value for the 6 games on NBC to justify those numbers.
NBC probably ends up paying almost $75M more in pro rata if ND and a friend join the B1G anyway. I'm not a media exec, but I'd think they'd want 14-16 B1G games and 7 ND home games vs just 14-16 B1G games where they might have a chance to select ND.
ND's money makes sense if they continue to get into the playoffs and can keep that money to themselves. If they fall off and rely solely on the TV money, then the Big10 earns them more. But once you get to a level where you can find everything comfortably, what's the point?
The one school that should be hoping for ND to move is Stanford. They fit the Big10 profile in every way but money they bring in. I think they'd be a natural partner for ND, but that would be their only chance for a lifeline if the PAC folds.
Out of left field scenario: Notre Dame finds a way out of the ACC and joins the Big Xii with Colorado. ND brings NBC with them, and the ND home games remain on NBC (with some away game options) with the NBC money being thrown into the Big Xii pot for equal distribution. ND gets to continue to feel special, AND 'Twould be great exposure and security for the Big Xii. Pac loses Colorado, ACC loses ND and B1G fails to grab the biggest fish in the sea again. Big Xii would rock.
I might lose 50 pounds, my wife may become a super model, and I get invited to play on pga championship tour.
We're much closer to this than ND in the Big 12
Joel Klatt:
"Well pretty soon it’s going to start being about who can we drop? I know people think I’m crazy and look at me kind of sideways. That’s absolutely coming. Because again there’s not an unlimited source of money and the money then has to get smarter"
People keep thinking this won’t happen because it hasn’t yet. People keep thinking Big 10 or SEC top teams won’t push for unequal revenue sharing because it hadn’t happened yet.
People look at all the money being made not understanding that between the arms race, paying players coming soon plus diverted donations for NIL operating costs are set to skyrocket. Ratings and attendance don’t suggest growth.
Just AZ and Colorado makes a ton of sense.
I’m guessing our welcome wvu friend would find PITT a good addition in a few years. Hard to find a better fit that has no interest from SEC and Big Ten.
I’d rather not add teams that have been wetting their pants thinking they’re already eventually in big ten or sec. Maybe it’s dumb but I want to be past that phase.
If we add just CO/AZ and the big ten invite never comes, Utah/WA/Ore can still anchor a Pac and it saves wsu/OreSt who deserve none of this.
