ISU Win/Loss Projections ESPN FPI

[cymonw1980]

Thought this was interesting... FPI has us favored in our first 4 games, then only 2 of our last 8.

Favored in 4 of 6 at home, underdog in 4 of 6 on the road.



EDIT:

Updating this with the week 1 results in (9/5/2023):



Win Total now at 6.472 and games we are favored in jumped from 6 to 8.

Biggest moves are on TCU (+15.5%), Baylor (+20.3%).

Baylor and TCU both moved from underdog to favored.

8 of 12 games improved our our win total outlook. OU, Cinci, Kansas, and KSU are the 4 that declined week to week.

 

[Antihawk240]

That is interesting and it is pretty hard to argue with any of these figures. It's easy to argue wins and losses but when you see the actual win percentages by those "guesses" it is pretty straight up.

 

[RonBurgundy]

Thought this was interesting... FPI has a favored in our first 4 games, then only 2 of our last 8.

Favored in 4 of 6 at home, underdog in 4 of 6 on the road.

View attachment 115859

On one hand, I would take this. Bowl game plus another win over Iowa. But I think the Cincy game and the OSU game are confusing to me. Cincy has a brand new coach and only 1 starter returning on offense. That is a very winnable game. Surprised to see them favor us vs OSU.

 

[inCyteful]

It says to me there are a handful of plays difference between 4-8 and 7-5 and last year we didn't make any of those plays.

 

[0u812]

seems remarkably optimistic. I don't see it for Iowa, OSU, KU, or even BYU....

 

[Statefan10]

seems remarkably optimistic. I don't see it for Iowa, OSU, KU, or even BYU....

Iowa may have a hobbled QB, OSU and KU are in Ames so that makes sense, and BYU may be down this year.

 

[CascadeClone]

This is really close to what I had posted on page 1 of the expectations thread (below). Biggest differences are BYU and Cincy. I think BYU will be tough on the road and Cincy less so since closer and new coach/system.

Wins: UNI, Ohio, KU
Losses: OU, Bay, BYU, Tex, KSU (rough last 3 games)
Toss-ups: Iowa, OSU, TCU, Cincy

 

[0u812]

Iowa may have a hobbled QB, OSU and KU are in Ames so that makes sense, and BYU may be down this year.

Hoping that makes the difference. Call me an ISU fan with a nut cup on.....

 

[Clark]

caveat: computer rating systems are pretty much worthless preseason and generally require at least a half season of data to really provide semi accurate projections.

It does seem that ESPN thinks pretty highly of ISU this year, at least compared to most everywhere else (including CF staff)

 

[Clark]

Iowa may have a hobbled QB, OSU and KU are in Ames so that makes sense, and BYU may be down this year.

do you really think that projection had any data at all included about a hobbled qb? How would you even include that?

 

[Statefan10]

do you really think that projection had any data at all included about a hobbled qb? How would you even include that?

No it definitely didn't lol I was just telling him why I'd personally be more confident. That data has nothing to do with that.

 

[drmwevr08]

6 wins would probably seem great, provided we don't give away a few more. I'd take it.

 

[Acylum]

Haven’t changed my prediction since before the gambling stuff even came out. 4-8 assuming we beat UNI.

 

[Statefan10]

Haven’t changed my prediction since before the gambling stuff even came out. 4-8 assuming we beat UNI.

Boooo lol

 

[acoustimac]

I’ve felt for some time that we beat Texas at home. Winter conditions. Yes!

 

[cymonw1980]

On one hand, I would take this. Bowl game plus another win over Iowa. But I think the Cincy game and the OSU game are confusing to me. Cincy has a brand new coach and only 1 starter returning on offense. That is a very winnable game. Surprised to see them favor us vs OSU.

I would tend to agree… they clearly put a lot of value on home field. I was also surprised by being favored @ BYU, and would argue we will be more competitive in the tx/OU games.

 

[besserheimerphat]

Some of you seem to be saying that a probability of 52-54% is favored. To me, that's a toss-up game. I figure anything where we're >70% is a likely win and <30% is a likely loss. So there are 3 likely wins and 2 likely losses. That leaves 7 games we could win if we play well and/or get some lucky breaks (I know, I know...). The probabilities show we're more likely to end up under .500 than over, but it's not that far fetched that we'll hit 6 or 7 wins.

That being said, the probabilities will change as we start seeing results.

 

[isutrevman]

It says to me there are a handful of plays difference between 4-8 and 7-5 and last year we didn't make any of those plays.

I went back and looked at box scores from every game last year and nearly threw up. There was like a 4 game stretch were we outgained the opponent by 100+ yards, some of them 200+ and lost all 4. A couple of those we nearly doubled them up in yds/play.

 

[inCyteful]

I went back and looked at box scores from every game last year and nearly threw up. There was like a 4 game stretch were we outgained the opponent by 100+ yards, some of them 200+ and lost all 4. A couple of those we nearly doubled them up in yds/play.

Exactly

 

[NWICY]

Thought this was interesting... FPI has a favored in our first 4 games, then only 2 of our last 8.

Favored in 4 of 6 at home, underdog in 4 of 6 on the road.

View attachment 115859

More wins than I would have thought.