ISU Win/Loss Projections ESPN FPI

isutrevman

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Jan 30, 2007
7,372
9,952
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Ames, IA
More wins than I would have thought.
I think most fans greatly overestimate how bad we were last year. Only winning 4 games sucked, but our ability to find ways to lose games was unlike anything I've ever seen. We've had teams that only won 2-3 games, and at the end of the season, I felt we were lucky to just get those. Last year, we lost 2-3 games alone because our two best receivers couldn't make routine catches. If our kicker doesn't have an all time horrible game @ Kansas, we win that one too.

We dominated in 3 of our wins, then squeaked out the Iowa game, which we should have won by 2-3 TDs but tried everything in our power to lose, and still came out on top.

At the end of it all, you're stuck with the record you got. But, we went 1-5 in one score games, which doesn't count the OU game, which was close until OU scored a late TD to make it 2 scores.
 

Statefan10

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SuperFanatic
SuperFanatic T2
May 20, 2019
21,188
27,212
113
I think most fans greatly overestimate how bad we were last year. Only winning 4 games sucked, but our ability to find ways to lose games was unlike anything I've ever seen. We've had teams that only won 2-3 games, and at the end of the season, I felt we were lucky to just get those. Last year, we lost 2-3 games alone because our two best receivers couldn't make routine catches. If our kicker doesn't have an all time horrible game @ Kansas, we win that one too.

We dominated in 3 of our wins, then squeaked out the Iowa game, which we should have won by 2-3 TDs but tried everything in our power to lose, and still came out on top.

At the end of it all, you're stuck with the record you got. But, we went 1-5 in one score games, which doesn't count the OU game, which was close until OU scored a late TD to make it 2 scores.
Which happened because HD threw back to back INTs late in the 4th quarter when we were down 7. We forced them to punt on one, and then he threw another one and they took it back to the 2 yard line and went up two scores.
 
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RealisticCy

Well-Known Member
Nov 2, 2014
1,692
2,710
113
Ames, IA
I think most fans greatly overestimate how bad we were last year. Only winning 4 games sucked, but our ability to find ways to lose games was unlike anything I've ever seen. We've had teams that only won 2-3 games, and at the end of the season, I felt we were lucky to just get those. Last year, we lost 2-3 games alone because our two best receivers couldn't make routine catches. If our kicker doesn't have an all time horrible game @ Kansas, we win that one too.

We dominated in 3 of our wins, then squeaked out the Iowa game, which we should have won by 2-3 TDs but tried everything in our power to lose, and still came out on top.

At the end of it all, you're stuck with the record you got. But, we went 1-5 in one score games, which doesn't count the OU game, which was close until OU scored a late TD to make it 2 scores.
2022 Losses
Baylor by 7: down 17-14 at half Dekkers throws a pick on the 2nd play of the 3rd quarter and another in Baylor territory early in the 4th. Offense had 25 minutes of possession time; 2.4 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Kansas by 3: 3 missed FG's, Dekkers throws a pick on 3rd and 12 at our own 5 that gifts them their second TD; defense allows 28 yards on 6 drives in the second half. 0.9 yards/carry, 48 pass attempts

K-State by 1: 3.3 yards/carry, 38 pass attempts

Texas by 3: Dekkers picked off in the endzone on 3rd down; Dekkers fumbles in Texas territory with 2 minutes left; 2.6 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Oklahoma by 14: Dekkers INT on the second play of the game, 2 more picks in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned to the 2 yard line; 2.4 yards/carry, 57 pass attempts

Okie State by 6: 5 turnovers (3 picks, two fumbles) including 3 in the first 4 possessions; 2 more TO on downs (both in the fourth quarter); 1.6 yards/carry, 43 pass attempts

Texas tech by 4: two 30-ish yard field goals missed in the first half, led to two TO on down at the Tech 5 yard line in the second half; 3.0 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

TCU by a million: started with consecutive 3&Outs totaling 1 yard, next nine possessions included 2 missed FG, 2 picks, a fumble, a TO on downs after losing 5 yards.

Bold above: can't remember which games....was that KSU and Texas Tech? I remember X had one that really hurt....

We couldn't run the ball, and were both horribly inefficient and turnover prone when we passed. You can get away with being ****** at rushing as long as you don't throw picks. You can get away with a poor passing game if you can consistently run the ball. You can get away with poor red zone play if you can at least make FG's.

It's a big ask to correct all this stuff in one year, particularly with what the team lost....but Dekkers not being the QB also might be a massive upgrade. OL play will be the key.
 

ZRF

Well-Known Member
Jan 3, 2015
4,392
2,119
113
seems remarkably optimistic. I don't see it for Iowa, OSU, KU, or even BYU....

The only game I think is extremely optimistic is KU. We should be favored but that seems a little high, like the system clearly thinks we are the better team (guessing home/away is worth .10 from .500 in either direction). We might be better, but it's close.

With that said I personally think/thought those were our 3 most likely wins on the season. Our other 3 favoreds are basically toss-ups, of which you expect to go 50-50. Since you can't win 1.5 there's 1-2 more wins.

Four to five wins sounds about right for this team.
 
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GingerNinja

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Dec 30, 2012
343
656
93
Omaha
2022 Losses
Baylor by 7: down 17-14 at half Dekkers throws a pick on the 2nd play of the 3rd quarter and another in Baylor territory early in the 4th. Offense had 25 minutes of possession time; 2.4 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Kansas by 3: 3 missed FG's, Dekkers throws a pick on 3rd and 12 at our own 5 that gifts them their second TD; defense allows 28 yards on 6 drives in the second half. 0.9 yards/carry, 48 pass attempts

K-State by 1: 3.3 yards/carry, 38 pass attempts

Texas by 3: Dekkers picked off in the endzone on 3rd down; Dekkers fumbles in Texas territory with 2 minutes left; 2.6 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Oklahoma by 14: Dekkers INT on the second play of the game, 2 more picks in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned to the 2 yard line; 2.4 yards/carry, 57 pass attempts

Okie State by 6: 5 turnovers (3 picks, two fumbles) including 3 in the first 4 possessions; 2 more TO on downs (both in the fourth quarter); 1.6 yards/carry, 43 pass attempts

Texas tech by 4: two 30-ish yard field goals missed in the first half, led to two TO on down at the Tech 5 yard line in the second half; 3.0 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

TCU by a million: started with consecutive 3&Outs totaling 1 yard, next nine possessions included 2 missed FG, 2 picks, a fumble, a TO on downs after losing 5 yards.

Bold above: can't remember which games....was that KSU and Texas Tech? I remember X had one that really hurt....

We couldn't run the ball, and were both horribly inefficient and turnover prone when we passed. You can get away with being ****** at rushing as long as you don't throw picks. You can get away with a poor passing game if you can consistently run the ball. You can get away with poor red zone play if you can at least make FG's.

It's a big ask to correct all this stuff in one year, particularly with what the team lost....but Dekkers not being the QB also might be a massive upgrade. OL play will be the key.
I remember last year being really bad but when you break it down game by game I really don't know how we all survived last year.
 

isutrevman

Well-Known Member
Jan 30, 2007
7,372
9,952
113
38
Ames, IA
2022 Losses
Baylor by 7: down 17-14 at half Dekkers throws a pick on the 2nd play of the 3rd quarter and another in Baylor territory early in the 4th. Offense had 25 minutes of possession time; 2.4 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Kansas by 3: 3 missed FG's, Dekkers throws a pick on 3rd and 12 at our own 5 that gifts them their second TD; defense allows 28 yards on 6 drives in the second half. 0.9 yards/carry, 48 pass attempts

K-State by 1: 3.3 yards/carry, 38 pass attempts

Texas by 3: Dekkers picked off in the endzone on 3rd down; Dekkers fumbles in Texas territory with 2 minutes left; 2.6 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Oklahoma by 14: Dekkers INT on the second play of the game, 2 more picks in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned to the 2 yard line; 2.4 yards/carry, 57 pass attempts

Okie State by 6: 5 turnovers (3 picks, two fumbles) including 3 in the first 4 possessions; 2 more TO on downs (both in the fourth quarter); 1.6 yards/carry, 43 pass attempts

Texas tech by 4: two 30-ish yard field goals missed in the first half, led to two TO on down at the Tech 5 yard line in the second half; 3.0 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

TCU by a million: started with consecutive 3&Outs totaling 1 yard, next nine possessions included 2 missed FG, 2 picks, a fumble, a TO on downs after losing 5 yards.

Bold above: can't remember which games....was that KSU and Texas Tech? I remember X had one that really hurt....

We couldn't run the ball, and were both horribly inefficient and turnover prone when we passed. You can get away with being ****** at rushing as long as you don't throw picks. You can get away with a poor passing game if you can consistently run the ball. You can get away with poor red zone play if you can at least make FG's.

It's a big ask to correct all this stuff in one year, particularly with what the team lost....but Dekkers not being the QB also might be a massive upgrade. OL play will be the key.
I feel like if we fixed one thing out of (horrible FG kicking, no running game, bad INT's) we win 2-3 more games. Don't have to fix them all, just one.
 

madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
57,284
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I feel like if we fixed one thing out of (horrible FG kicking, no running game, bad INT's) we win 2-3 more games. Don't have to fix them all, just one.

Nothing can be fixed!!! ISU lost some decent players and had good players 2-3 years ago and how do you ever replace them!!!??

 
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madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
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Campbell was crazy for starting a freshman who played 1A hs in Iowa. It's not like Dekkers was a 5 star recruit. Campbell deserves a lot of the blame for not having a quality QB worthy of starting in the Big 12. Hawarden, Iowa, really Campbell?

Ever heard of Robert Gallery or Dallas Clark?

Dekkers was a 4 star with several P5 offers. He has/had good talent.
 
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PizzaTheHutt

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Feb 6, 2014
1,181
2,087
113
I think that's why people make it sound worse in their memory. Not because the scores were so lopsided, but because we beat ourselves in almost every game.
Every week it seemed like we came up with a new and unique way to lose. So bad that I remember before every game I said to myself “What new way to lose are we going to discover this week?”

We got in our own way more than any team I’ve ever seen and still almost won 5 more games. We were right there.
 

Thomasrickj

Well-Known Member
Feb 26, 2012
7,870
5,773
113
Arlington, VA
2022 Losses
Baylor by 7: down 17-14 at half Dekkers throws a pick on the 2nd play of the 3rd quarter and another in Baylor territory early in the 4th. Offense had 25 minutes of possession time; 2.4 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Kansas by 3: 3 missed FG's, Dekkers throws a pick on 3rd and 12 at our own 5 that gifts them their second TD; defense allows 28 yards on 6 drives in the second half. 0.9 yards/carry, 48 pass attempts

K-State by 1: 3.3 yards/carry, 38 pass attempts

Texas by 3: Dekkers picked off in the endzone on 3rd down; Dekkers fumbles in Texas territory with 2 minutes left; 2.6 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Oklahoma by 14: Dekkers INT on the second play of the game, 2 more picks in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned to the 2 yard line; 2.4 yards/carry, 57 pass attempts

Okie State by 6: 5 turnovers (3 picks, two fumbles) including 3 in the first 4 possessions; 2 more TO on downs (both in the fourth quarter); 1.6 yards/carry, 43 pass attempts

Texas tech by 4: two 30-ish yard field goals missed in the first half, led to two TO on down at the Tech 5 yard line in the second half; 3.0 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

TCU by a million: started with consecutive 3&Outs totaling 1 yard, next nine possessions included 2 missed FG, 2 picks, a fumble, a TO on downs after losing 5 yards.

Bold above: can't remember which games....was that KSU and Texas Tech? I remember X had one that really hurt....

We couldn't run the ball, and were both horribly inefficient and turnover prone when we passed. You can get away with being ****** at rushing as long as you don't throw picks. You can get away with a poor passing game if you can consistently run the ball. You can get away with poor red zone play if you can at least make FG's.

It's a big ask to correct all this stuff in one year, particularly with what the team lost....but Dekkers not being the QB also might be a massive upgrade. OL play will be the key.
Against Texas there was also that play where X was wide open and right under the ball and he decided to jump, when he didn't need to, and missed the ball. That was almost a guaranteed touchdown.
 

madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
57,284
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Every week it seemed like we came up with a new and unique way to lose. So bad that I remember before every game I said to myself “What new way to lose are we going to discover this week?”

We got in our own way more than any team I’ve ever seen and still almost won 5 more games. We were right there.

Even for ISU it was impressive.
 

dafarmer

Well-Known Member
Mar 17, 2012
7,228
6,909
113
SW Iowa
2022 Losses
Baylor by 7: down 17-14 at half Dekkers throws a pick on the 2nd play of the 3rd quarter and another in Baylor territory early in the 4th. Offense had 25 minutes of possession time; 2.4 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Kansas by 3: 3 missed FG's, Dekkers throws a pick on 3rd and 12 at our own 5 that gifts them their second TD; defense allows 28 yards on 6 drives in the second half. 0.9 yards/carry, 48 pass attempts

K-State by 1: 3.3 yards/carry, 38 pass attempts

Texas by 3: Dekkers picked off in the endzone on 3rd down; Dekkers fumbles in Texas territory with 2 minutes left; 2.6 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Oklahoma by 14: Dekkers INT on the second play of the game, 2 more picks in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned to the 2 yard line; 2.4 yards/carry, 57 pass attempts

Okie State by 6: 5 turnovers (3 picks, two fumbles) including 3 in the first 4 possessions; 2 more TO on downs (both in the fourth quarter); 1.6 yards/carry, 43 pass attempts

Texas tech by 4: two 30-ish yard field goals missed in the first half, led to two TO on down at the Tech 5 yard line in the second half; 3.0 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

TCU by a million: started with consecutive 3&Outs totaling 1 yard, next nine possessions included 2 missed FG, 2 picks, a fumble, a TO on downs after losing 5 yards.

Bold above: can't remember which games....was that KSU and Texas Tech? I remember X had one that really hurt....

We couldn't run the ball, and were both horribly inefficient and turnover prone when we passed. You can get away with being ****** at rushing as long as you don't throw picks. You can get away with a poor passing game if you can consistently run the ball. You can get away with poor red zone play if you can at least make FG's.

It's a big ask to correct all this stuff in one year, particularly with what the team lost....but Dekkers not being the QB also might be a massive upgrade. OL play will be the key.
Always will be in a Campbell offense.
 

CascadeClone

Well-Known Member
Oct 24, 2009
10,878
13,962
113
2022 Losses
Baylor by 7: down 17-14 at half Dekkers throws a pick on the 2nd play of the 3rd quarter and another in Baylor territory early in the 4th. Offense had 25 minutes of possession time; 2.4 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Kansas by 3: 3 missed FG's, Dekkers throws a pick on 3rd and 12 at our own 5 that gifts them their second TD; defense allows 28 yards on 6 drives in the second half. 0.9 yards/carry, 48 pass attempts

K-State by 1: 3.3 yards/carry, 38 pass attempts

Texas by 3: Dekkers picked off in the endzone on 3rd down; Dekkers fumbles in Texas territory with 2 minutes left; 2.6 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Oklahoma by 14: Dekkers INT on the second play of the game, 2 more picks in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned to the 2 yard line; 2.4 yards/carry, 57 pass attempts

Okie State by 6: 5 turnovers (3 picks, two fumbles) including 3 in the first 4 possessions; 2 more TO on downs (both in the fourth quarter); 1.6 yards/carry, 43 pass attempts

Texas tech by 4: two 30-ish yard field goals missed in the first half, led to two TO on down at the Tech 5 yard line in the second half; 3.0 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

TCU by a million: started with consecutive 3&Outs totaling 1 yard, next nine possessions included 2 missed FG, 2 picks, a fumble, a TO on downs after losing 5 yards.

Bold above: can't remember which games....was that KSU and Texas Tech? I remember X had one that really hurt....

We couldn't run the ball, and were both horribly inefficient and turnover prone when we passed. You can get away with being ****** at rushing as long as you don't throw picks. You can get away with a poor passing game if you can consistently run the ball. You can get away with poor red zone play if you can at least make FG's.

It's a big ask to correct all this stuff in one year, particularly with what the team lost....but Dekkers not being the QB also might be a massive upgrade. OL play will be the key.
Want to throw up this morning?
The Brian Ferentz offensive scheme probably wins 4 of those games and goes 8-4.

1. They make the FGs because they always have a great K (KU, Tech)
2. their brainless, helpless, HOPELESS offense diving into the line to kill 40 seconds and punt the ball, doesn't turn it over like a pastry shop (UT, OSU)

This is the foundation of the optimistic view for 2023 ISU. Average special teams and offense, with the very good defense, they can absolutely win games.

The foundation of the pessimistic view is these things won't change because they haven't really yet under CMC.
 

BCClone

Well Seen Member.
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Sep 4, 2011
67,658
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Not exactly sure.
2022 Losses
Baylor by 7: down 17-14 at half Dekkers throws a pick on the 2nd play of the 3rd quarter and another in Baylor territory early in the 4th. Offense had 25 minutes of possession time; 2.4 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Kansas by 3: 3 missed FG's, Dekkers throws a pick on 3rd and 12 at our own 5 that gifts them their second TD; defense allows 28 yards on 6 drives in the second half. 0.9 yards/carry, 48 pass attempts

K-State by 1: 3.3 yards/carry, 38 pass attempts

Texas by 3: Dekkers picked off in the endzone on 3rd down; Dekkers fumbles in Texas territory with 2 minutes left; 2.6 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

Oklahoma by 14: Dekkers INT on the second play of the game, 2 more picks in the fourth quarter, one of which was returned to the 2 yard line; 2.4 yards/carry, 57 pass attempts

Okie State by 6: 5 turnovers (3 picks, two fumbles) including 3 in the first 4 possessions; 2 more TO on downs (both in the fourth quarter); 1.6 yards/carry, 43 pass attempts

Texas tech by 4: two 30-ish yard field goals missed in the first half, led to two TO on down at the Tech 5 yard line in the second half; 3.0 yards/carry, 36 pass attempts

TCU by a million: started with consecutive 3&Outs totaling 1 yard, next nine possessions included 2 missed FG, 2 picks, a fumble, a TO on downs after losing 5 yards.

Bold above: can't remember which games....was that KSU and Texas Tech? I remember X had one that really hurt....

We couldn't run the ball, and were both horribly inefficient and turnover prone when we passed. You can get away with being ****** at rushing as long as you don't throw picks. You can get away with a poor passing game if you can consistently run the ball. You can get away with poor red zone play if you can at least make FG's.

It's a big ask to correct all this stuff in one year, particularly with what the team lost....but Dekkers not being the QB also might be a massive upgrade. OL play will be the key.
It is a big ask, but let’s look at it. Couldn’t run the ball, we basically had a poor line and we were having to go deep with freshmen RBs. We have a new line coach and the backs have another year and hopefully Norton is healthy.

HD is gone, he had a lack of field presence and was a turnover machine. Have two new QBs, not as much experience but may be better leaders and be a little more careful with the ball.

Had freshmen kickers. We now have a STs coach and the kickers have had a full off season to work on their craft. Doesn’t guarantee anything, but hard to imagine it getting worse.

I say it’s very likely that at least two of them would improve with the QB being the question mark.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Campbell was crazy for starting a freshman who played 1A hs in Iowa. It's not like Dekkers was a 5 star recruit. Campbell deserves a lot of the blame for not having a quality QB worthy of starting in the Big 12. Hawarden, Iowa, really Campbell?
A freshman???? Okay, who are we talking about here? Dekkers was in his third year with program. You may have outed yourself here.
 

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