Here comes the doomsday thread, sorry

[FriendlySpartan]

ESPN just shafted a major football brand in FSU on the biggest stage for the world to see, just to make a few million more on a single year of playoffs. Why would they have any qualms cutting loose Rutgers or Illinois or Indiana. That would be child's play by comparison.

The Big East was raided of its best teams and now no longer exists as a power football conference.

The B12 was then raided of its best teams and is no longer an equal to the top football conferences.

The Pac was raided of its top teams and fell apart completely.

The top teams in the ACC are now pleading to leave. Their fate is all but sealed.

How anyone can look at a steady 40 year march towards more money and more consolidation of power and tell me it stops there, I just can't understand. The rich blue bloods keep pushing for changes to get even richer. And once they are all together cashing big checks in the B1G and SEC, the only way they can grow further is to break free from the dead weight in those leagues. And the media partners have a long history proving they are happy to play that game.

Turning to a super league is simply bad business, the regular season would mean nothing then and more importantly you can’t cash in on a massive playoff without more teams than a super league can provide. We’re already in a weird place next year where teams like michiagn can get 2 losses and easily make the playoffs. You think that isn’t going to effect regular season rantings over time as those games matter less and less?

Also where in the world is ESPN getting the money from to form such a league. They are under mandates to cut sports licensing not increase it as Disney stock tanks.

Yep I agree we’re going to end up in a weird spot when the ACC dissolves but the key point people keep overlooking is that for all the realignment there have actually been 3 teams added to the overall count of the P4, still no real contraction.

 

[simply1]

That’s hyperbole.

The professional leagues do a great job preventing franchises from bypassing the cap and those caps distribute talent to a degree college athletics has never had.

Employment with a CBA that included punishment for synthetic NIL/inducement would represent a system more equitable than ever before, and more in the spirit of amateurism than the current black market arms race.

Do you expect the NCAA or schools to get anti trust exceptions?

 

[CloneDontCare]

So much of this nonsense is driven by a prisoner's dilemma of everyone is assuming it's inevitable, so they make it inevitable. It doesn't mean it actually makes long-term sense for anyone.

Here's an apt comparison: Hollywood studios blowing their businesses to pieces in pursuit of the Netflix model of monthly streaming subscriptions. There was no rule that the future had to be dropping endless globs of content for $10 a month. Oops, everyone is losing billions of dollars instead. They've trained their customers to devalue the product.

The networks and conferences are doing the same thing with football, pressing forward out of greed and momentum, and instead they're just going to blow up the sport. People are going to stop caring with all the rivalries gone and the championship locked behind a gate. And right as we're about to start a12 team playoff that makes the championship soooo much more accessible. Beat Kansas this year, and Iowa State is in the freaking conference championship again -- one game away from an automatic bid to the playoffs using next year's rules! That gives more fanbases reasons to care. And a million more games weekly that have post season implications. They're going to throw all that out so the rich and keep more money for themselves -- except it'll kill the golden goose and leave them with less.

I wish the best football, its fans, and Iowa State, but I'm ready to give in and let it all die.

 

[clonechemist]

Even if a cap gets put in place there will be ways around it - just like the NFL. Players like coming to Dallas because outside of the cap they’re on every local commercial. Like Jerry says, if you’re not doubling your salary simply by being in his orbit then that’s on you.

Right, and that’s why we see Dallas absolutely dominating the NFL year after year…. Right?

 

[Gunnerclone]

What gnaws at me in all this, and it's been hashed out ad nauseam on here...but the original Big 12 was a GREAT conference from a competitive standpoint.

While we may remember the north/south imbalance with those elite OU and UT teams, and solid TT/A&M/OSU programs...when the conference started in the 90s Nebraska, KSU, and Colorado were all still at their peak. And good Mizzou/KU teams in the late 2000s.

And don't forget basketball....Kansas anchoring the conference as the blue blood, solid Texas and OU teams (Durant and Griffin years), Sutton's OSU program, Bobby Knight in Lubbock, solid ISU and Mizzou programs...

If the top schools had swallowed their pride and done the hard work to build a solid foundation, this conference could've thrived for a long time. Just a shame.

I hated that conference. In my lifetime I loved the real Big 8, second place is the pre-2023 round robin era, distant 3rd is the original Big 12. It never had that real cohesion that the Big 8 had for a long time and the Round Robin era always had.

 

[Cyched]

I hated that conference. In my lifetime I loved the real Big 8, second place is the pre-2023 round robin era, distant 3rd is the original Big 12. It never had that real cohesion that the Big 8 had for a long time and the Round Robin era always had.

Agreed, which is why I said from a competitive standpoint. Though there’s no doubt the cohesion issues were in large part due to the lack of cooperation with revenue sharing.

 

[Die4Cy]

I hated that conference. In my lifetime I loved the real Big 8, second place is the pre-2023 round robin era, distant 3rd is the original Big 12. It never had that real cohesion that the Big 8 had for a long time and the Round Robin era always had.

The round robin era was perfect and an example where everyone else was going in one direction but for a while, the Big XII did something different that was right.

 

[ClubCy]

What gnaws at me in all this, and it's been hashed out ad nauseam on here...but the original Big 12 was a GREAT conference from a competitive standpoint.

While we may remember the north/south imbalance with those elite OU and UT teams, and solid TT/A&M/OSU programs...when the conference started in the 90s Nebraska, KSU, and Colorado were all still at their peak. And good Mizzou/KU teams in the late 2000s.

And don't forget basketball....Kansas anchoring the conference as the blue blood, solid Texas and OU teams (Durant and Griffin years), Sutton's OSU program, Bobby Knight in Lubbock, solid ISU and Mizzou programs...

If the top schools had swallowed their pride and done the hard work to build a solid foundation, this conference could've thrived for a long time. Just a shame.

I could argue that from 2000-2009ish the Big 12 was or had the pieces to best the best football conference in America. We had big brands, rivalries worth watching, owned the state of Texas recruiting before the SEC started raiding. Thought I heard the rumor they wanted the Big 12 to have the Big Ten network model first but Texas? got in the way. I could be wrong about that last part.

The pieces were there to be on par and getting media deals with the likes of the SEC/BigTen but alas, here we are.

 

[Die4Cy]

I'm not going to lament the crackup of the old Big XII any more. A lot of that is long ago and there's been an absolute tsunami of water under the bridge since that time. The main thing is through all of it so far, we've survived. But we're definitely going forward wary of what can happen. But the new league should be fun.

 

[CycloneSpinning]

Right, and that’s why we see Dallas absolutely dominating the NFL year after year…. Right?

He’s right though. The stardom of the players and love for the team is something else in Dallas. I mean, the Packers have some real fanatics, but they don’t have the population or oil money.

 

[ClubCy]

I could argue that from 2000-2009ish the Big 12 was or had the pieces to best the best football conference in America. We had big brands, rivalries worth watching, owned the state of Texas recruiting before the SEC started raiding. Thought I heard the rumor they wanted the Big 12 to have the Big Ten network model first but Texas? got in the way. I could be wrong about that last part.

The pieces were there to be on par and getting media deals with the likes of the SEC/BigTen but alas, here we are.

Also, a point I forgot to add. Guess what else happened in 2008?

The SEC and ESPN sign a 15 year multi billion dollar deal and look how the landscape has changed since.

 

[aeroclone]

Turning to a super league is simply bad business, the regular season would mean nothing then and more importantly you can’t cash in on a massive playoff without more teams than a super league can provide. We’re already in a weird place next year where teams like michiagn can get 2 losses and easily make the playoffs. You think that isn’t going to effect regular season rantings over time as those games matter less and less?

Also where in the world is ESPN getting the money from to form such a league. They are under mandates to cut sports licensing not increase it as Disney stock tanks.

Yep I agree we’re going to end up in a weird spot when the ACC dissolves but the key point people keep overlooking is that for all the realignment there have actually been 3 teams added to the overall count of the P4, still no real contraction.

I would say there has been contraction though, because it fuller. Real P4. There is a significant gap between the B1G/SEC and the B12/ACC. This was not the case between the P5 conferences 20 years ago. So in effect, all the schools left in the B12 and ACC have been relegated. That is why the schools who have the option to bolt have been doing so.

And as for where ESPN is going to find the money? Easy, they already have it, they just need to move it. That is the whole point of the super league. They have been spending it across 5 conferences and 63 teams. If you want to tighten your belt, then you focus on those areas where you get the biggest returns. Why do I keep paying $100M per year to Rutgers or Illinois or Maryland or Northwestern? Those schools don't pull ratings playing each other. And they really don't do me any favors when they are playing UM or OSU either. The big eyes and the big ad dollars that go with them come when the blue bloods play each other. So I pay a premium to the blue bloods with the money I save by cutting out the filler.

 

[Die4Cy]

I would say there has been contraction though, because it fuller. Real P4. There is a significant gap between the B1G/SEC and the B12/ACC. This was not the case between the P5 conferences 20 years ago. So in effect, all the schools left in the B12 and ACC have been relegated. That is why the schools who have the option to bolt have been doing so.

And as for where ESPN is going to find the money? Easy, they already have it, they just need to move it. That is the whole point of the super league. They have been spending it across 5 conferences and 63 teams. If you want to tighten your belt, then you focus on those areas where you get the biggest returns. Why do I keep paying $100M per year to Rutgers or Illinois or Maryland or Northwestern? Those schools don't pull ratings playing each other. And they really don't do me any favors when they are playing UM or OSU either. The big eyes and the big ad dollars that go with them come when the blue bloods play each other. So I pay a premium to the blue bloods with the money I save by cutting out the filler.

From a green eyeshade perspective, the next biggest priority of an ESPN/ABC or FOX would be to do exactly what you say within the P2. Big XII/ACC are priced at their perceived values, but there's probably 10 programs combined in the SEC/B1G they will view as currently overpaying to control inventory to value.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Also, a point I forgot to add. Guess what else happened in 2008?

The SEC and ESPN sign a 15 year multi billion dollar deal and look how the landscape has changed since.

Bingo. The crack in the dam was in the 1980s, Oklahoma and Georgia winning its lawsuit against the NCAA and allowing conferences to negotiate their own media rights.

Then the SEC signing that unprecedented TV deal in 2008 was the initial earthquake. And the resulting flood was everything that ensued.

 

[NWICY]

Whatever works out is what it is. I'm guessing in the end we end up in some type of 2nd tier, with a budget similar to what we have now. Not everybody in the world has Bezos, Gates money, most just get along in the middle class and I think that is where ISU ends up in the end.

 

[Cy Guy69]

Not going to read through all of this thread but realistically what does this mean for the big 12? We are far more stable than the ACC, if they fall, all hell breaks loose. What happens to this sport? Just the lucky few Big 10 and SEC schools can financially support their programs while Washington State and Oregon State of the world drop theirs? This deal couldn’t be worse for this sport.

 

[cayin]

I don’t want sound like an advocate for the P2 but there has never really been parity in college football. It’s been the same handful of teams from the SEC and the same top dogs from each conference. I had to go back to 1990 (Colorado and GT) to find a national champ that didn’t fall under the same umbrella that still exists today.

It’s a regional sport where the best players typically come from the same concentrated area which lead to blue bloods, which lead to the money flow of tv, which lead to where are today.

All they had to do x amount of years ago was have a commissioner or a leader act on behalf of everyone and not let individual conferences go crazy.

Yeah, to your point it is generally blue blood schools that win. But it does seem there was more parity 20 years ago in that in wasn't the SEC winning most of them. Other leagues were winning NTs, USC, FSU, Miami, Nebraska, Texas, OU, Ohio State. Schools like Virginia Tech and Kansas State were good enough to compete for one. The SEC ending up rigging things, media bias, high rankings and not dropping very far from losses, only 8 conference games, playing a patsies in mid November.
I
MO, the Big 12 was getting too big for their britches. The league was deep, non blue blood schools with coaches like Bryles, Leach, Pinkel, Mangino and Gundy were good enough to beat anyone. The problem for the rest of the country in that they couldn't get into Texas to recruit. The Big 12 was like Fort Knox, all that Texas talent was staying in the Big 12, even the northern schools had a minimum of 25 Texans. By getting teams to leave, it suddenly opened up Texas. The SEC benefited, so did schools like Ohio State which started pulling in more Texans.

 

[2076]

Not going to read through all of this thread but realistically what does this mean for the big 12? We are far more stable than the ACC, if they fall, all hell breaks loose. What happens to this sport? Just the lucky few Big 10 and SEC schools can financially support their programs while Washington State and Oregon State of the world drop theirs? This deal couldn’t be worse for this sport.

I hate this garbage. It’s all about budgets now. Baker kind of set the baseline budget $100 million mark. That would theoretically leave some BIG 12 teams out. Not sure how accurate this tweet is but it shows us at $86 million. We have some ground to make up.

 

[Cyclonepride]

The round robin era was perfect and an example where everyone else was going in one direction but for a while, the Big XII did something different that was right.

If they're going to rebuild this thing, that should be the model. Divide up the power conferences in that way, and then you can have autoqualifiers for champions that are actually fair.

 

[NorthCyd]

I hate this garbage. It’s all about budgets now. Baker kind of set the baseline budget $100 million mark. That would theoretically leave some BIG 12 teams out. Not sure how accurate this tweet is but it shows us at $86 million. We have some ground to make up.

It's not accurate. ISU is over 100 million. Pretty much all of power 5 is over 100 million.