Here comes the doomsday thread, sorry

[JUKEBOX]

I think you are letting the current concept of conferences cloud how you think this is going to go down.

Right now, do Ohio State and Michigan carry water for the rest of the Big 10? Yes. But they don't carry water for any team outside their conference, outside of some marginal interest they might bring to the sport or some playoff $ share, which for the grand scheme for them isn't all that much.

It's likely it's not going to look like a new big "conference" model where they negotiate as a whole, all hold hands and share revenue equally. Ohio State and Michigan will gladly take Purdue, Iowa State, or GA Tech fans' eyeballs and TV ratings, as long as they can negotiate their TV contract so they get a massive share of it vs. those other teams.

The idea that the blue bloods and big names have to choose between giving the low value teams more money than they're worth or risking having those viewers peel off is a false choice. These schools can have the best of both worlds. Keep the low value teams as participants in a league, make sure there aren't any kind of NIL or salary cap type things enacted, and make media, playoff payouts, etc. merit- and ratings-based. Everybody still watches, the pie grows, and they get an unprecedented share of the pie. Win-win.

If something like this plays out, I think perhaps the Big 12's long-term strategy should be to:

1. Kill the ACC, take valuable leftovers.
2. Destabilize the B1G and SEC if they try unequal revenue sharing. Force higher-value schools to split off into their own league rather than negotiate. Some schools like Vanderbilt, Rutgers, etc. are probably done when that happens, but maybe Big 12 could add like a Missouri or Michigan State (not sure if they would make the cut or not).

 

[ISUTex]

Could see this coming for awhile. Next step will be requirements to make minimum contributions to maintain seats and other "perks".

Yes. Add in some live betting codes on the jumbotron and beer cups. Maybe even bring local prisoners and have them fight to the death on the fifty yard line during halftime. We could gamble on that!!!! However winning gamblers have to give 10% of their winnings to the offensive linemen. More money for these poor players from our pockets and not the NCAA/schools!!!! Can't wait.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I see two scenarios in the long-run (one ideal one that probably won't happen and a realistic one):

1. There is structure, regulation, and a merit-based playoff created among the top 60 or whatever CFB programs. Transfer portal rules and salary caps allowing every team to compete on a relatively-even playing ground. Teams win their divisions to get into the playoff and playoff committee is dissolved. Maybe existing conferences could be preserved and then a BCS-like system could be used to select for the playoff (as another option).

I think due to greed this is unlikely to happen. Here in my opinion is the more likely scenario:

2. The top football programs from the B1G and the SEC split off into their own league. Big 12 takes leftover casualties that actually add value to the conference. Some schools from B1G and SEC are SOL. Likely they band together and do something similar to Washington State and Oregon State. Then two college football leagues exist. One as a semi-pro league and the other with a more traditional college football structure where sensible rules are put in place.

In this scenario, I would not watch the semi-pro league with the B1G and SEC programs. However, maybe there are enough casual fans to make it viable.

Again I’m biased but I don’t think there are that many casual CFB fans, it’s not the NFL and doesn’t get anywhere near the eyeballs it does for a variety of reasons.

Another thing people keep forgetting is that the blue blood schools are extremely protective of their brands and that football is cyclical. Before Georgia won the last two their last natty was 40 years ago, 1980, and the one before that was 40 years before that in the 40’s. Before Dabo clemosning was a thing and they were a laughing stock for losing big games in creative ways. The blue bloods are a couple bad coaching hires for being borderline irrelevant, just look at Michigan with Rich Rod and Hoke.

The thing is, the way these blue bloods recover is by playing in a conference where they have the most resources/advanatages so when they get the right coach/players they can rise up quickly. That doesn’t happen in a super conference and would be extremely damaging to the brand and fan engagement. That is the biggest reason this isn’t happening none of these blue bloods wants to turn into the new Rutgers of the super league.

Remember Harbaugh was one OSU loss in 2021 from being fired, that one win brought the school and the team back with people treating them like they have been great the whole time even though they had close to 20 years of not being relevant and it was extremely damaging to the brand during that time. Tickets were being given away if you bought a Pepsi, there was no waiting list for the first time in generations, it was bad. Presidents who make these decisions are aware of this as all of these blue bloods have had similar down years, USC, Bama, texas, etc have all had downturns that they were only able to recover from due to not being in a super league.

 

[JUKEBOX]

Again I’m biased but I don’t think there are that many casual CFB fans, it’s not the NFL and doesn’t get anywhere near the eyeballs it does for a variety of reasons.

Another thing people keep forgetting is that the blue blood schools are extremely protective of their brands and that football is cyclical. Before Georgia won the last two their last natty was 40 years ago, 1980, and the one before that was 40 years before that in the 40’s. Before Dabo clemosning was a thing and they were a laughing stock for losing big games in creative ways. The blue bloods are a couple bad coaching hires for being borderline irrelevant, just look at Michigan with Rich Rod and Hoke.

The thing is, the way these blue bloods recover is by playing in a conference where they have the most resources/advanatages so when they get the right coach/players they can rise up quickly. That doesn’t happen in a super conference and would be extremely damaging to the brand and fan engagement. That is the biggest reason this isn’t happening none of these blue bloods wants to turn into the new Rutgers of the super league.

Remember Harbaugh was one OSU loss in 2021 from being fired, that one win brought the school and the team back with people treating them like they have been great the whole time even though they had close to 20 years of not being relevant and it was extremely damaging to the brand during that time. Tickets were being given away if you bought a Pepsi, there was no waiting list for the first time in generations, it was bad. Presidents who make these decisions are aware of this as all of these blue bloods have had similar down years, USC, Bama, texas, etc have all had downturns that they were only able to recover from due to not being in a super league.

It seems to me like the media partners and conference commissioners are the ones calling the shots with realignment and the presidents are just along for the ride. I also think these blue-blood schools are delusional for the most part.

I would hope their super-league fails because it would be funny. However, I'm guessing there would be enough money behind it + casuals to make it a viable league.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

It seems to me like the media partners and conference commissioners are the ones calling the shots with realignment and the presidents are just along for the ride. I also think these blue-blood schools are delusional for the most part.

I would hope their super-league fails because it would be funny. However, I'm guessing there would be enough money behind it + casuals to make it a viable league.

Nah nothing gets signed off on without the school presidents approval. The AD is a drop in the bucket compared to the actual money the school operates with.

Next couple years will be a good trial, let’s see how much OU likes being in the SEC and only getting 7-8 wins a season. Let’s also see how the regular season ratings hold up with an expanded playoff that make the games mean less. Those two things over the next 3-4 years are going to be very informative.

 

[byebye]

The thing is, the way these blue bloods recover is by playing in a conference where they have the most resources/advanatages so when they get the right coach/players they can rise up quickly. That doesn’t happen in a super conference and would be extremely damaging to the brand and fan engagement. That is the biggest reason this isn’t happening none of these blue bloods wants to turn into the new Rutgers of the super league.

Common sense would agree with this - but, also, common sense doesn't care about going 2-10 when you're getting $100+ million TV dollars in the "super league"

That's why I think some of these fanbases who have been used to historical success are going to be shocked when their team becomes "mid" or worse in the "super league" instead of going 10-2 year after year in leagues with Vanderbilt & Rutgers

Once/if something like "super league" happens, records won't matter - only the brand matters & 2-10 in "super league" & making $100+ million is better than being left behind in the NCAA

Maybe... who knows...

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Common sense would agree with this - but, also, common sense doesn't care about going 2-10 when you're getting $100+ million TV dollars in the "super league"

That's why I think some of these fanbases who have been used to historical success are going to be shocked when their team becomes "mid" or worse in the "super league" instead of going 10-2 year after year in leagues with Vanderbilt & Rutgers

Once/if something like "super league" happens, records won't matter - only the brand matters & 2-10 in "super league" & making $100+ million is better than being left behind in the NCAA

Maybe... who knows...

Yes common sense does care because you are damaging the value of the brand which these schools care very much about. Big ten is already getting 100mil+ depending on if/when the payment structure towards players plays out the risk isn’t worth the reward.

 

[byebye]

Yes common sense does care because you are damaging the value of the brand which these schools care very much about. Big ten is already getting 100mil+ depending on if/when the payment structure towards players plays out the risk isn’t worth the reward.

When you get to "super league" it doesn't matter - you're "made" - no USFL/XFL team is going to replace a bad NFL team & no NCAA team is going to replace a bad "super league" team

Maybe... who knows...

 

[FriendlySpartan]

When you get to "super league" it doesn't matter - you're "made" - no USFL/XFL team is going to replace a bad NFL team & no NCAA team is going to replace a bad "super league" team

Maybe... who knows...

Except you’re not made. Rutgers makes more media money than anyone not in the big ten, they aren’t made. It’s no difference if you make a super league where Notre Dame or OU is the new Rutgers of the conference. The brand is extremely damaged regardless of the money coming in which has major repercussions.

 

[byebye]

With college sports at a critical juncture, is 'Project DI' the answer? 'Everything is on the table'

As the football offseason arrives, college sports stands at the most significant inflection point in its more than 100 years of existence.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[MartyFine]

 

[exCYtable]

Not sure where that is headed, but quite sure I don't like it.

 

[exCYtable]

 

[cyfanatic]

Not sure where that is headed, but quite sure I don't like it.

It is heading toward the inevitable "what can our two leagues do to ensure that our two leagues get every dollar possible that exists in the world of college athletics"! We all know that is what was going to happen...will it work? Different story...

 

[FriendlySpartan]

This is in direct response to the NIL lawsuits going on. Most AD’s are expecting the NCAA to lose which makes them as a governing body even more useless.

This is in the super early stages and while it shouldn’t develop into a P2 situation there is a good/decent chance that they will be pushing for big changes and enforcement that could be outside of NCAA.

Hoping the Big12 and ACC get the invites to weigh in sooner rather than later

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

This is in direct response to the NIL lawsuits going on. Most AD’s are expecting the NCAA to lose which makes them as a governing body even more useless.

This is in the super early stages and while it shouldn’t develop into a P2 situation there is a good/decent chance that they will be pushing for big changes and enforcement that could be outside of NCAA.

Hoping the Big12 and ACC get the invites to weigh in sooner rather than later

Ya right, I'm sure they're just itching to divide their power amongst everyone.

 

[cytor]

On a separate note. The Big 12 will have a NCAA Field of 16 March Madness tournament. All other schools can participate in the NIT. CBS to pay $1 billion to the Big 12 for a 10 year contract.

The press conference will have a sign in the background reading: The Big 10 and the SEC can go **** themselves.

 

[Trice]

This always seemed inevitable, but I'd still be surprised if those two conferences both stay in tact and maintain equal revenue sharing among their members. They'll either have revenue tiers or lose the dead weight and pick up the biggest brands from other conferences, who are probably blowing up their phones as we speak.

Bad bad bad for the rest of us, though.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

This always seemed inevitable, but I'd still be surprised if those two conferences both stay in tact and maintain equal revenue sharing among their members. They'll either have revenue tiers or lose the dead weight and pick up the biggest brands from other conferences, who are probably blowing up their phones as we speak.

Bad bad bad for the rest of us, though.

“There is only one lord of the ring. And he doesn’t share power”

 

[Al_4_State]

If the SEC and Big 10 go off to have their own division and playoffs without the ACC and Big 12, they will see their ratings decrease.