Could see this coming for awhile. Next step will be requirements to make minimum contributions to maintain seats and other "perks".
Here comes the doomsday thread, sorry
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Could see this coming for awhile. Next step will be requirements to make minimum contributions to maintain seats and other "perks".
I don’t think people realize the amount of money that it takes to run this kind of system and keep it balanced.
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Yes
This is why there won't be 100 teams in the Super League - this is why Iowa State won't be in the Super League - the bigger conferences/teams do not want to carry water for smaller programs - "Why should Purdue get the same amount of TV $$$ as Ohio State?"
Relegation will happen, but likely only once - Vanderbilt will be ousted from the SEC, or not invited to the Super League - & that will be it for Vandy probably - maybe some school can PAY their way into the Super League someday (maybe a school like UCF) - but, for almost all teams, they will be relegated once & will never have a chance to join Super League
This is all about how much money you have & how much money your brand is worth - it has nothing to do with how good you are at football
I would not be at all surprised if the next round of TV contracts were to individual schools rather than conferences. Those contracts may be impacted by the conference you’re in (competition level), but I doubt that the Alabamas of the world will be fine with the same as the Vanderbilt’s of the world in the next round.
What the NCAA is doing has nothing to do with a super league. If that happens you will see the member schools break off from the NCAA for football.
The NCAA is made up of the member schools. The board of governors will be the ones to decide if this will pass. The board of governors is made up of representatives from the member shools and conferences. Only two of the ten voting members on the board of governors are from power 4 conferences, the president of Georgia and Baylor. This isn't what you think it is. They are not going to pass a rule that would exclude the majority of FBS teams if they don't want to be excluded. Thats not how organizations like this work.
I just don't see relegation working in college sports. It's cool for the soccer teams to be able to do that. But for college you could end up with a weird jumbled mess of a conference. I get we kind of have that now but let's try and move in the other direction.
I think you are letting the current concept of conferences cloud how you think this is going to go down.
Right now, do Ohio State and Michigan carry water for the rest of the Big 10? Yes. But they don't carry water for any team outside their conference, outside of some marginal interest they might bring to the sport or some playoff $ share, which for the grand scheme for them isn't all that much.
It's likely it's not going to look like a new big "conference" model where they negotiate as a whole, all hold hands and share revenue equally. Ohio State and Michigan will gladly take Purdue, Iowa State, or GA Tech fans' eyeballs and TV ratings, as long as they can negotiate their TV contract so they get a massive share of it vs. those other teams.
The idea that the blue bloods and big names have to choose between giving the low value teams more money than they're worth or risking having those viewers peel off is a false choice. These schools can have the best of both worlds. Keep the low value teams as participants in a league, make sure there aren't any kind of NIL or salary cap type things enacted, and make media, playoff payouts, etc. merit- and ratings-based. Everybody still watches, the pie grows, and they get an unprecedented share of the pie. Win-win.
1. The proposal isn’t for a super league.
2. If a super league were to happen it wouldn’t be regulation it would be consolidation and it there wouldn’t be conferences or the NCAA. No buying your way in or winning your way in. The tv networks do not care about anything other than how many eyeballs you bring on a Saturday. That will be the only way in.
Virtually all sports leagues have rules in place to provide some amount of competitive balance. If there are super teams with triple the revenue of other teams, and the ability to pay players accordingly, there's no way those teams can exist in a league with far less resources. Super teams would need a super league. And if ISU isn't in the Super League, I will have minimal interest in it unless some compelling story line develops in a particular season.
I'll be surprised if Baker's proposal passes. It's not just the initial ante of 30K for half the athletes. There's essentially no limit to how high the minimum could go and there would be tremendous pressure to include more athletes. It could be used as a way to run off less valuable members of the Big 2 conferences.
Blum mentioned in this Wednesday's pod that players can‘t be paid on performance with NIL. I recall him sharing in a previous pod that NIL contracts can't be for play but are often "live in X college town". Perhaps that latter has changed.
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That’s why it’s laughable that our resident Iowa and Michigan State fans are adamant the Big Ten is untouchable and their teams will continue to make as much as the Ohio States and Michigans of College Football. As soon as those teams realize how much more they can make if they form a league with the Alabamas and Georgias, it will happen. Money talks and with those schools, they will listen to the media money. Once the ACC gets poached, booting out the Big Ten and SEC deadweight teams (Rutgers, Purdue, Vanderbilt) is next.
I think you're taking things a bit literally - Baker's plan is the beginning of what may become some sort of "super league" or "premier league" of CFB - it is almost certainly going to create a new hierarchy in CFB - who knows what final shape this all takes - but this is clearly the beginning of the end of CFB as we know it - this could end up with teams decoupling from schools altogether, who knows?
Correct re: relegation (I assume that's what you mean by "regulation") - this will not be a Euro-style relegation situation - I think I was clear I was using "relegation" as a descriptive term to imply that the schools/teams will be split at some point & teams like Iowa State will be "relegated" to a lower tier - I do however believe "expansion" will be a possibility
Yes, eyeballs is what will be the main driving factor - big brands on national television
Re: conferences & the NCAA - who knows? - I think the SEC & B10 will drive the split, or teams in those conferences - in the end, who knows if these conferences stay separate, merge or become a whole new entity - will the NCAA be involved? - this plan from Baker is the first step in keeping the NCAA involved, but in all seriousness, no one is going to need the NCAA - we hardly need it now - as I said in the beginning, the NCAA is just trying to stay relevant
I think you're taking things a bit literally - Baker's plan is the beginning of what may become some sort of "super league" or "premier league" of CFB - it is almost certainly going to create a new hierarchy in CFB - who knows what final shape this all takes - but this is clearly the beginning of the end of CFB as we know it - this could end up with teams decoupling from schools altogether, who knows?
Correct re: relegation (I assume that's what you mean by "regulation") - this will not be a Euro-style relegation situation - I think I was clear I was using "relegation" as a descriptive term to imply that the schools/teams will be split at some point & teams like Iowa State will be "relegated" to a lower tier - I do however believe "expansion" will be a possibility
Yes, eyeballs is what will be the main driving factor - big brands on national television
Re: conferences & the NCAA - who knows? - I think the SEC & B10 will drive the split, or teams in those conferences - in the end, who knows if these conferences stay separate, merge or become a whole new entity - will the NCAA be involved? - this plan from Baker is the first step in keeping the NCAA involved, but in all seriousness, no one is going to need the NCAA - we hardly need it now - as I said in the beginning, the NCAA is just trying to stay relevant
I think you're taking things a bit literally - Baker's plan is the beginning of what may become some sort of "super league" or "premier league" of CFB - it is almost certainly going to create a new hierarchy in CFB - who knows what final shape this all takes - but this is clearly the beginning of the end of CFB as we know it - this could end up with teams decoupling from schools altogether, who knows?
Correct re: relegation (I assume that's what you mean by "regulation") - this will not be a Euro-style relegation situation - I think I was clear I was using "relegation" as a descriptive term to imply that the schools/teams will be split at some point & teams like Iowa State will be "relegated" to a lower tier - I do however believe "expansion" will be a possibility
Yes, eyeballs is what will be the main driving factor - big brands on national television
Re: conferences & the NCAA - who knows? - I think the SEC & B10 will drive the split, or teams in those conferences - in the end, who knows if these conferences stay separate, merge or become a whole new entity - will the NCAA be involved? - this plan from Baker is the first step in keeping the NCAA involved, but in all seriousness, no one is going to need the NCAA - we hardly need it now - as I said in the beginning, the NCAA is just trying to stay relevant
'How will we pay for this?' — College leaders react to NCAA's new subdivision proposal
It's a new day in college sports, and some college administrators are dealing with it differently than others.
sports.yahoo.com
'How will we pay for this?' — College leaders react to NCAA's new subdivision proposal
It's a new day in college sports, and some college administrators are dealing with it differently than others.
Interesting piece. I didn’t think about NIL also being subject to Title IX. If that’s the case, I’d guess that collectives will still exist and be a major player in football recruiting. NIL from schools could come from conference payouts, but I’d think there will be an emphasis for donor dollars to go to collectives to avoid the Title IX requirements.
But IMO, the success or failure of this system will be based on how transfer rules are setup. The transfer portal has gotten out of control. How will that be reigned in?
And I do wonder what the antitrust issues are that are referenced? I’d guess that’d be necessary to cap the NIL dollars if that’s what they want to do?
I apologize if this is not completely accurate, it's complicated, but how it was explained to me:
The Supreme Court has indicated that the NCAA cannot, in the absence of an antitrust exemption from Congress, write rules that limit movement of players and prevent them from attaining benefits (educational and otherwise) because Court ruled they have legal status as individuals and these restrictions do not apply to anyone else on campus. They are sending a strong message that an effort to lock players in using their eligibility and scholarship status as the stick requires the athletes have a role in those decisions. This is why people believe it won't get resolved until Congress passes an anti-trust exemption for college football that would give the NCAA or succeeding organization the right to write rules that restrict player earnings and movement, but would also allow for players to collectively bargain to resolve all the issues and have a vote to accept it or not. This is complicated by Title IX law, because while most people think of this stuff in terms of what it means for CFB, the sport is just one of dozens offered by universities who are subject to ensuring no sex discrimination exists where federal funding is involved. So whatever gets decided will likely apply to all college sports, unless an exemption from Title IX is included also, which would be controversial to say the least. So no clear way out exists, which results in the mess we are currently in. I do think the NCAA proposal is a first step to sorting some things out, but there are no easy answers.
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I see two scenarios in the long-run (one ideal one that probably won't happen and a realistic one):
1. There is structure, regulation, and a merit-based playoff created among the top 60 or whatever CFB programs. Transfer portal rules and salary caps allowing every team to compete on a relatively-even playing ground. Teams win their divisions to get into the playoff and playoff committee is dissolved. Maybe existing conferences could be preserved and then a BCS-like system could be used to select for the playoff (as another option).
I think due to greed this is unlikely to happen. Here in my opinion is the more likely scenario:
2. The top football programs from the B1G and the SEC split off into their own league. Big 12 takes leftover casualties that actually add value to the conference. Some schools from B1G and SEC are SOL. Likely they band together and do something similar to Washington State and Oregon State. Then two college football leagues exist. One as a semi-pro league and the other with a more traditional college football structure where sensible rules are put in place.
In this scenario, I would not watch the semi-pro league with the B1G and SEC programs. However, maybe there are enough casual fans to make it viable.
1. There is structure, regulation, and a merit-based playoff created among the top 60 or whatever CFB programs. Transfer portal rules and salary caps allowing every team to compete on a relatively-even playing ground. Teams win their divisions to get into the playoff and playoff committee is dissolved. Maybe existing conferences could be preserved and then a BCS-like system could be used to select for the playoff (as another option).
I think due to greed this is unlikely to happen. Here in my opinion is the more likely scenario:
2. The top football programs from the B1G and the SEC split off into their own league. Big 12 takes leftover casualties that actually add value to the conference. Some schools from B1G and SEC are SOL. Likely they band together and do something similar to Washington State and Oregon State. Then two college football leagues exist. One as a semi-pro league and the other with a more traditional college football structure where sensible rules are put in place.
In this scenario, I would not watch the semi-pro league with the B1G and SEC programs. However, maybe there are enough casual fans to make it viable.
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