Here comes the doomsday thread, sorry

[Mr Janny]

So, explain this.

They currently get Iowa State eyeballs and don’t have to share a penny with Iowa State. How does telling a school like Iowa State that they can never go to the playoffs net them more cash? That’s the part I can’t figure out. They don’t share any money with us now.

It's a squeeze play. They take steps to make the perception of their league(s) appear to be by far the superior product with superior teams, superior players, superior coaches, superior fanbases. They've added big brands, and I anticipate will continue to do so. Now, when the tv negotiations begin, they have more product to offer and the alternative to buying what they're selling is an inferior product that you don't get the same ROI on. ESPN can buy a package of SEC games featuring new teams, like Florida State and Clemson that draws 10 million viewers each for $50 million, or a package of ACC games, minus their biggest draws, that pull maybe half of the viewers each for $10 million. (made up numbers)

Not to mention, that bandwagon fandom is a very real thing. Some people like to back what's popular. So, you might not convert the die hard Iowa State fan, but the high school sophomore, who is just starting to become a college football fan, may be a lot more open to the idea of following a conference that is perceived as the superior product.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Obviously I'll have to see what kind of shape all of this takes. But if this is just going to be NFL lite and the team I care about doesn't have access, why wouldn't I just watch the NFL instead?

I am already there. I only watch Iowa State and a few other Big 12 games right now. I watch NFL all day on Sunday.

 

[Al_4_State]

It's a squeeze play. They take steps to make the perception of their league(s) appear to by far the superior product with superior teams, superior players, superior coaches, superior fanbases. They've added big brands, and I anticipate will continue to do so. Now, when the tv negotiations begin, they have more product to offer and the alternative to buying what they're selling is an inferior product that you don't get the same ROI on. ESPN can buy a package of SEC games featuring new teams, like Florida State and Clemson that draws 10 million viewers each for $50 million, or a package of ACC games, minus their biggest draws, that pull maybe half of the viewers each for $4 million.

Not to mention, that bandwagon fandom is a very real thing. Some people like to back what's popular. So, you might not convert the die hard Iowa State fan, but the high school sophomore, who is just starting to become a college football fan, may be a lot more open to the idea of following a conference that is perceived as the superior product.

People don’t watch college football to see a superior product though. That’s the fundamental error in their thinking.

People who want to watch the game played at the highest level have the NFL, and the SEC and Big 10 are never going to offer that level of quality. Period.

People watch college sports because they have emotional attachments to their school or home state or whatever. If you kick half those schools out of the top division you will reduce interest and will get lower ratings.

Luring these casual fans into an NFL Lite is something that some people seem to have a hard on for, but it demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of their product and audience and chasing this end will not create the financial dynamo they seek. Instead it will kill what’s currently an extremely golden goose.

 

[BCClone]

Texas has had more money than anyone for decades and it hasn’t don’t much for them. Vanderbilt and Indiana have had more money for the big 12 for decades as well and they haven’t done anything with it.

The contract is great because it secures a financial future for years to come with a membership base of peers.

Not quite accurate. While the b10 has been pulling in about 10-15 MM a year more for the last 2-3 years, it was a wash for several years before. Throw in that the big 10 requires more sports and that makes it fairly close. The new deal puts the split around 20-30MM per year. That will make the separation.

 

[Mr Janny]

People don’t watch college football to see a superior product though. That’s the fundamental error in their thinking.

People who want to watch the game played at the highest level have the NFL, and the SEC and Big 10 are never going to offer that level of quality. Period.

People watch college sports because they have emotional attachments to their school or home state or whatever. If you kick half those schools out of the top division you will reduce interest and will get lower ratings.

Luring these casual fans into an NFL Lite is something that some people seem to have a hard on for, but it demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of their product and audience and chasing this end will not create the financial dynamo they seek. Instead it will kill what’s currently an extremely golden goose.

Maybe you don't, and maybe there are quite a few people who feel the same as you. But 43 of the top 50 most viewed games, through the regular season and championship weekend featured at least one team that is or will be in the Big10/SEC. It's not a stretch to say that big brands draw people.

Yes, there are passionate fanbases outside of those two conferences, and yes part of their "superiority" is the result of years of propaganda, but at some point, the scoreboard doesn't lie, and if you're consistently dwarfing the competition, it will have an effect. And it already is. Look at Florida State doing everything it can to join them. If a school in the lower tier gets popular enough to be a threat to their ratings, they'll just add them. What school would say no? SEC/Big10 gets stronger. Competition gets weaker.

And your last point, I'll again fall back on what I've said previously. The powers that be, in the Big 10 and SEC, are not stupid. If they make this move, it won't be without taking your point into strong consideration and and analysis. You have to give them at least a little credit for being at least a little business savvy, considering where they currently sit. These conferences didn't just luck their way into being in the position they are.

 

[theshadow]

Maybe you don't, and maybe there are quite a few people who feel the same as you. But 43 of the top 50 most viewed games, through the regular season and championship weekend featured at least one team that is or will be in the Big10/SEC. It's not a stretch to say that big brands draw people.

How many of those were available OTA?

 

[byebye]

So, explain this.

They currently get Iowa State eyeballs and don’t have to share a penny with Iowa State. How does telling a school like Iowa State that they can never go to the playoffs net them more cash? That’s the part I can’t figure out. They don’t share any money with us now.

They do "share" the money, in a manner of speaking - right now College Football is worth $x billion to TV nets (most of those from ESPN & FOX) - when Super League (or whatever, call it what you want) happens (& it will almost certainly happen), most of $x billions will be spread across two leagues instead of ten (er, nine... RIP P12) - as I said before, the value of B1G & SEC will skyrocket over night, while the value of the rest will plummet - our "share" will decrease dramatically - & you know? most Cyclones fan will still be watching College Football on ESPN & FOX b/c most people that watch football, like to watch football - you can remain on your high horse & swear off watching Super League in principle, but most people just want to watch football, regardless of who is playing

 

[ISU_Guy]

This stuff really bothers me for some reason. its like a handful of greedy idiots are flushing 150 years of college athletics history for some College version of the NFL. We already have the UFL...lol

The worst part of this IMO is having Iowa being part of this. In football, there wasn't much of a difference between us currently. sure, they generate more money, but recruiting-wise wise we can sell a lot of the same things.
Starting this year we lose tex/ou, but replace with some good schools, which I don't think hurts us as much as people think, but if this new idea happens like I think it will happen, a lot of schools like ISU will be in trouble.
There will be a clear separation of hierarchy for recruiting purposes, retention and competing overall.
We would be surrounded by Nebraska, Wisconsin, Mizzou, and Illinois, all schools that will be in a league of their own. We can and are winning those battles currently, but not sure what happens later on.

I guess my question to this committee is, what is your goal? More money? I really don't know if that is going to actually be the case when schools have to start dishing out all this extra cash to players and whatever else they are trying to do.

This is just a couple of rich people in suits with small diks trying to get more money is all. and they don't care how many people they take out on the way.

College football has become a world of Amazon and Walmart.
The Targets, Best Buys, Ace Hardware's, PetSmarts, and local chains are just living in that world and just hope to be relevant in 10 years.

 

[BCClone]

If you go employee status say good bye to 90% or more of all college sports. People can complain all they want about NIL and transfers which really has changed very little but employee status will destroy college sports

I don’t think 90%. Football and MBB make money so they will survive. You then need an equal amount of women’s sports so that will hold most of the women’s.

 

[byebye]

I think you’re right that this isn’t a forming of a separate P2 and more about neutering the NCAA. But if you don’t think the step to break off and/or create a separate tier exists on their pathway over the next 10-20 years, you’d be very naive.

Indeed - they're not Bond villians, they're not going to say the "evil" part out loud

 

[ISU_Guy]

I would also envision another round of musical chairs (conference realignment) if all the sudden you have leftover ACC, SEC, BIG teams that didn't make the cut along with the Big12, Stanford, Cal, OST/WSU.
I am sure Notre Dame would have to finally cave in at that point also.

 

[Cyched]

I am curious to see how this will affect fanbases for colleges that also occupy healthy pro sports markets. Your Colorado, Arizona/State, Minnesota, NW & Illinois, any NE school types that won't be in this club, or also stand to be axed as things get consolidated further.

Broncos will always be king here, CU fans only watched more college football because of the hype around Deion. If he goes to the Big 2 eventually, and they're left out of the club, why not just keep watching their pro teams?

I think the Big 12 is doing the best it can creating this "best of the rest" conference with good fan support, but if they're left out, is that model viable? Is there a demand for more "pure" college football vs. NFL lite among the leftovers?

 

[cyatheart]

I’m already down to watching the big 12 only now. I understand I am in the minority, but I have very little interest if Iowa state or another big 12 team isn’t playing. I haven’t seen an Iowa game ex when they play Iowa state in years.

 

[BCClone]

Also, we continue to use “blue blood” and Big 10/SEC interchangeably.

This is true at the top of the conference, but there are absolute garbage teams in both of those conferences. Their bottoms are worse than the old PAC 12 and Big 12.

If this all goes down, I don’t think this is as simple as SEC/Big 10 then everyone else.

Only thing is, in order to form the supper conference, they need a way out. So they will need to drag enough along to help get them out. Plus, they need some punching bags also

 

[cincinnaticyclone]

People don’t watch college football to see a superior product though. That’s the fundamental error in their thinking..

People watch college sports because they have emotional attachments to their school or home state or whatever. If you kick half those schools out of the top division you will reduce interest and will get lower ratings.

This is exactly right. The NFL is a juggernaut that college football will never be able to catch up to. Trying to replicate it is going to make the gap even wider, and as a result, will probably lead the NCAA to consolidate even further. We’re in a death spiral right now

 

[Mr Janny]

This is exactly right. The NFL is a juggernaut that college football will never be able to catch up to. Trying to replicate it is going to make the gap even wider, and as a result, will probably lead the NCAA to consolidate even further. We’re in a death spiral right now

Someone should tell the people watching games. TV ratings are up, both year over year, and as a trend over time.

 

[cincinnaticyclone]

Someone should tell the people watching games. TV ratings are up, both year over year, and as a trend over time.

I’m not talking about now, I’m talking about later, which is what my post and the post before said.

 

[isucy86]

So, explain this.

They currently get Iowa State eyeballs and don’t have to share a penny with Iowa State. How does telling a school like Iowa State that they can never go to the playoffs net them more cash? That’s the part I can’t figure out. They don’t share any money with us now.

There are 2 dynamics going on in college sport right now.

One, the student-athletes have the courts giving them more power day-by-day with NIL and immediate transfer eligibility. NIL has quickly evolved into pay-for-play and the richest 30 schools don't care because it benefits them in the short-term. It may not in the long-term if courts keep giving student-athletes more leverage regarding movement and money.

Two, college football playoffs are expanding. The current 4 team model generated around $500M that is distributed to the ten P5 & G5 Conferences. Starting with 2026 season the 12 team playoff is expected to generate between $1.5-$2.0B annually. The incremental money is BIGGER than the recently signed Big10 or SEC TV deals for an entire season. That is what the Big10 and SEC are trying to corner. They want to make sure their teams make up the vast majority of CFP teams. They could increase conference payouts as teams advance in the playoffs. Or maybe Big10/SEC want a payout methodology similar to March Madness where conferences are awarded units based on the # of teams their conference gets into the CFP. So if the Big12 only gets 1 team, it gets 1/12th of the media rights fees. Whereas if the Big10 gets 5 teams, it gets 5/12th of the media rights fees.

So stacking the deck against Big12 and ACC teams, does generate them more money. The key is how do they give fanbases not in the Big10/SEC enough to keep them engaged to watch the CFP?

 

[Mr Janny]

The two sentences preceding the one you highlighted should tell you I wasn’t talking about ratings.

But that's what it boils down to. It's a product with consumers, at the end of the day. And people have shown no indication, so far, that they're ready to stop consuming. Not in anything but anecdotal capacity.

 

[isucy86]

It's a squeeze play. They take steps to make the perception of their league(s) appear to be by far the superior product with superior teams, superior players, superior coaches, superior fanbases. They've added big brands, and I anticipate will continue to do so. Now, when the tv negotiations begin, they have more product to offer and the alternative to buying what they're selling is an inferior product that you don't get the same ROI on. ESPN can buy a package of SEC games featuring new teams, like Florida State and Clemson that draws 10 million viewers each for $50 million, or a package of ACC games, minus their biggest draws, that pull maybe half of the viewers each for $10 million. (made up numbers)

Not to mention, that bandwagon fandom is a very real thing. Some people like to back what's popular. So, you might not convert the die hard Iowa State fan, but the high school sophomore, who is just starting to become a college football fan, may be a lot more open to the idea of following a conference that is perceived as the superior product.

The love fest for Caitlin Clarke is a great example of this. Sure she's a tremendously talented player, but there have been tremendously talented players before her. But her timing was right to be great right as the NIL era emerged and she can be a marketing mogul. The national media are willing accomplices because her "stardom" grows viewership.

And she won't be the last. It will make it easier for networks to get the attention of bandwagon and casual sport fans because some star college athletes will become marketing machines.