Here comes the doomsday thread, sorry

AuH2O

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And if/when the pie does shrink, they're going to position themselves to take as much of it as they can. And that positioning may include stamping out the competition.

Strengthening your position in the short term, by completing distancing yourself from the competition, financially, is not a bad long term move. It's much better to be on top of the pile now, than it is to claw your way to the top, down the line.
Except that isn’t at all the choice the schools driving these decisions have. None of them are going to have to claw their way to the top. They are on top now, and they’ll be on top whether P2 split off or don’t.

The choice they have is do they maximize market share now with the potential of shrinking, slowing growth, or fracturing the industry. Almost all of these guys are going to be long retired before the latter plays out.
 
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ClubCy

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Except that isn’t at all the choice the schools driving these decisions have. None of them are going to have to claw their way to the top. They are on top now, and they’ll be on top whether P2 split off or don’t.

The choice they have is do they maximize market share now with the potential of shrinking, slowing growth, or fracturing the industry. Almost all of these guys are going to be long retired before the latter plays out.
That’s what I worry about. They don’t care about the long term. Let’s grab as much of the money as we can now and let it be a future problem.
 

AuH2O

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Not at all. I think that if the Big10 and SEC decide to go on their own, it's because the numbers tell them that they don't need Iowa State eyeballs much at all.
All one has to do is look at how viewership numbers for the same teams grow and shrink multiple times by going from FS1 to Big Fox. The number of fans of the team doesn’t change yet magically you may get several times more viewers simply by putting a game on a more widely viewed channel. College football is completely driven by viewers outside of fans of the teams playing.

I think SEC and Big 10 will see this next year they can have the best of both worlds. They are going to have the best slots and will draw great viewership, including all those Big 12 (and ACC) fan eyeballs without having to share any revenue with them other than some playoff money.
 
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Mr Janny

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Except that isn’t at all the choice the schools driving these decisions have. None of them are going to have to claw their way to the top. They are on top now, and they’ll be on top whether P2 split off or don’t.

The choice they have is do they maximize market share now with the potential of shrinking, slowing growth, or fracturing the industry. Almost all of these guys are going to be long retired before the latter plays out.
Look at it like this. A school like Ohio State is the top of the heap now. And they want to stay that way. If they see a future where the pie gets smaller, is it not logical that they might take steps in the short term to ensure that they're the only one deserving of pie, when that shrink occurs?

Not saying that's the only way to go about it, but that's not an illogical plan.
 

Mr Janny

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All one has to do is look at how viewership numbers for the same teams grow and shrink multiple times by going from FS1 to Big Fox. The number of fans of the team doesn’t change yet magically you may get several times more viewers simply by putting a game on a more widely viewed channel. College football is completely driven by viewers outside of fans of the teams playing.

I think SEC and Big 10 will see this next year they can have the best of both worlds. They are going to have the best slots and will draw great viewership, including all those Big 12 (and ACC) fan eyeballs without having to share any revenue with them other than some playoff money.
Like I said before, the SEC and BIg 10 aren't going to make a decision without having done their homework. They have access to the viewership data, as well. I'm not saying it won't be a risk, if they decide to break away, but it will be a very, very calculated one.
 

cysmiley

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F*ck it if it gets bad enough I'll just quit watching I got other things I can do with my time.
If 50% of football fans agree with you, there's going to be a lot of Networks trying to renegotiate fees to conferences or watching their stock take a serious hit, and Universities trying to figure out debt service payments on infrastructure that they invested in to be competitive with other institutions.
 
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NWICY

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If 50% of football fans agree with you, there's going to be a lot of Networks trying to renegotiate fees to conferences or watching their stock take a serious hit, and Universities trying to figure out debt service payments on infrastructure that they invested in to be competitive with other institutions.

I'm probably in the minority but as I've grown older my dedication to sports has declined except for the Cyclones. The rest of it just doesn't matter that much to me anymore.
 

twincyties

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This is purely speculation on my part but this is what foresee with the revenue sharing inevitably coming. The top recruits have always been getting a bag that is no secret but I will use an example.

Say you have a 3-4 star player whose offer list is Iowa state, Kansas, KSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota. I would imagine majority of the time that type of recruit wasn’t getting induced by money to a school. Now with revenue sharing that recruit will get FAR more money going to any of the big 10 schools than the big 12 schools. That’s where the talent gap will widen, in my opinion.
It probably will but I think it has a limit. These kids want playing time too. Its rare that a four or five start athlete is willing to sit on the bench for their entire college career and be happy just because they’re winning.

Parity is good for sports leagues and you’re only going to gain so much national interest if the same 10 teams are dominating every year.

A lot of this is about arrogance. The extreme scenarios we’re talking here aren’t good for business as much as they’re good for making about 8 football programs in the country feel even more important about themselves.
 

isucy86

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Sports aren’t being spun off from the university, that’s just a horrific take with zero discussion being had around it.

If students are made employees almost all Olympic sports go under unless they have outside funding. Most programs will shut down football. It’s just not survivable
Obviously colleges aren't talking about something they don't want. Small steps aren't going to work, so maybe bold/crazy ideas will come about. I haven't followed the FSU situation too closely, but sounds like they are exploring equity partners. Also I look at Iowa State and it has a history of setting up separate legal entities to address specific objectives: ISU Foundation, ISU Research Park. So it doesn't seem crazy that Athletics could be divested in some way to protect the viability of athletics and the university.

IMO it's naive to not think employee status is coming based on existing lawsuits. If you are so sure employee status isn't coming, what solutions are you hearing?

Over the last couple years I have come to believe the university vs. student-athlete relationship will be governed by a CBA because it gets the financial aspects out in the open. Transparency is a good thing. It creates balance between schools making money and athletes making money.

I also feel if there is a CBA, there is a better chance Congress and the Courts might become less critical of the college athletics model.
 
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twincyties

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Also, we continue to use “blue blood” and Big 10/SEC interchangeably.

This is true at the top of the conference, but there are absolute garbage teams in both of those conferences. Their bottoms are worse than the old PAC 12 and Big 12.

If this all goes down, I don’t think this is as simple as SEC/Big 10 then everyone else.
 

AuH2O

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Like I said before, the SEC and BIg 10 aren't going to make a decision without having done their homework. They have access to the viewership data, as well. I'm not saying it won't be a risk, if they decide to break away, but it will be a very, very calculated one.
But the importance of that impact stops being relevant for most of these guys more than a few years out.

If they can take a bigger market share for a few years even if it starts hurting overall growth in the industry, if that damage is slow enough, they aren’t going to care.

Not a great analogy, but kind of like Rutgers to the Big 10. They knew at some point when Rutgers was getting paid a full share and the old carriage fee model stops being the dominant model that Rutgers was going to start being paid more revenue than the value they brought to the league. But Delaney also knew that would be slow and they’d make bank for years. Nobody with a brain actually believed a garbage athletic department that nobody watched or cared about was going to actually become a brand valuable enough to pull its weight in the highest dollar conference in college sports.

Delaney just knew that he’d be long gone before that investment turned negative, and maybe the whole system would get blown up before that.

I don't know if or when a split off by the Big 10 and SEC may eventually turn negative. But I also don’t buy for a second that they wouldn’t do it if they thought that was a risk in the long term. The payback horizon most of these guys look at it is going to be relatively short.
 

ClubCy

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Also, we continue to use “blue blood” and Big 10/SEC interchangeably.

This is true at the top of the conference, but there are absolute garbage teams in both of those conferences. Their bottoms are worse than the old PAC 12 and Big 12.

If this all goes down, I don’t think this is as simple as SEC/Big 10 then everyone else.
Yes but this is where the counterpoint to your last response to my post about revenue sharing begins. Which was a great post by the way. Parity is crucial in maintaining a good product.

The blue bloods will alway be the blue bloods and you speak of Vanderbilts, Rutgers, Indiana’s. Garbage programs.

What do they become if they can pay the players more and recruits that typically go to Utah, Ok st, TCU, ISU, NCST, ect. start going to those schools? Well they become TCU, Ok st, NCST.

The garbage programs rise because the non blue blood recruits just consolidate to the current lower P2?
 

Icky_Mettle

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If 50% of football fans agree with you, there's going to be a lot of Networks trying to renegotiate fees to conferences or watching their stock take a serious hit, and Universities trying to figure out debt service payments on infrastructure that they invested in to be competitive with other institutions.
I’m already there. The last few years I have only watched the Big 12 in football and basketball. I did watch the college football playoffs this year and thought the style was incredibly boring, but that’s what the minions watch. Nobody likes the smell of their own farts more than big 10 and the SEC fans. Big 10 has ruined college sports. I’m rambling, can’t wait for the spartan fan dumbing of this post. Just remember big 10 fans don’t watch Iowa State, stop giving them ratings. PS, I’m drunk.
 

Al_4_State

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Not at all. I think that if the Big10 and SEC decide to go on their own, it's because the numbers tell them that they don't need Iowa State eyeballs much at all.
So, explain this.

They currently get Iowa State eyeballs and don’t have to share a penny with Iowa State. How does telling a school like Iowa State that they can never go to the playoffs net them more cash? That’s the part I can’t figure out. They don’t share any money with us now.
 

Die4Cy

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Why should the B1G and SEC be the ones to establish an advisory committee on the future of the sport? They're the douches who destroyed the sport in the first place.

Every other conference needs to consider uniting and discussing these issues in order to prepare to be a counterweight to them. All we ever do is react to the destructive moves they make.
 

mkadl

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Why should the B1G and SEC be the ones to establish an advisory committee on the future of the sport? They're the douches who destroyed the sport in the first place.

Every other conference needs to consider uniting and discussing these issues in order to prepare to be a counterweight to them. All we ever do is react to the destructive moves they make.
It will take unity and discipline by the other conferences to not play SEC/Big 10 teams regular season. Let them play with themselves. The number of teams NOT in those conferences is larger. The eyeballs can watch the same 10 or so teams all football season, in the best slots, see how that goes for them. Maybe I am dreaming.
 

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