Except that isn’t at all the choice the schools driving these decisions have. None of them are going to have to claw their way to the top. They are on top now, and they’ll be on top whether P2 split off or don’t.And if/when the pie does shrink, they're going to position themselves to take as much of it as they can. And that positioning may include stamping out the competition.
Strengthening your position in the short term, by completing distancing yourself from the competition, financially, is not a bad long term move. It's much better to be on top of the pile now, than it is to claw your way to the top, down the line.
The choice they have is do they maximize market share now with the potential of shrinking, slowing growth, or fracturing the industry. Almost all of these guys are going to be long retired before the latter plays out.