Really they only need cash, a collective bargaining agreement, and a draft.
Here comes the doomsday thread, sorry
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Really they only need cash, a collective bargaining agreement, and a draft.
It’s what we have been trying to explain. This what the networks would be betting on.
If this happens, 30 years from now if the new generation of football fans ONLY know the P2 league that is on all the major tv networks, has the best players, best coaches, etc that is all they will know. They will grow following that league even if grandpa is an Iowa State fan.
They won’t know what the ACC, B12, P12 was. I wasn’t old enough to know the old SWC so in my mind SMU is a lower program and always will be. Iowa state would become what Colorado State is to us currently. Colorado is the big program CSU is the smaller program.
In 30 years college football will be coed flag football.
But it's not in the NFL's best interest to compete. If the NFL moves games to Saturdays, then colleges will move games to Sundays. Does the NFL want to dilute its viewership by 20-30% on Sundays?
There are 30+ P5 college football games on any Saturday, so naturally CFB's peak game viewership will be less than the NFL on Sunday where there are 14 games. CFB could easily move 10 games to Sundays and have a big impact on NFL viewership.
The NFL does draw more than colleges, with the top couple games in the 25M viewer range. But the other games are typically in the 15-20M viewership range. But week 15 of the NFL season when the NFL put games on Saturday (No P5 CFB games) the viewership was:
- Pitt vs. Indy - 9.79M
- Den vs. Det - 9.15M
- Min vs. Cincy - 7.53M
2023 NFL Ratings
But will the next generation watch football at the same level? Just based on my experience, my nieces and nephews who are 18-30 have much less interest in college sport than I did when in college. They spend their time gaming, on social media or streaming. They have limited interest in watching live sports. The one person who is a big sport viewer, is an NBA fan more than NFL or college sports.
Technology is great because as fans we can watch just about every college and pro game on TV. Something that we couldn't do 10 years ago. But there are also more options for screen time than live sports and that will just continue to grow.
I don’t think that proves what you think it does. There were 8 regular season CFB games all year that had over 9M viewers. NFL had two in one Saturday (and they weren’t even compelling games).
I don’t think the NFL would be one iota scared if CFB moved to Sunday. No CFB games are bumping the NFL and CBS slots, or the NBC primetime game. NFL also isn’t scared to go h2h with CFB. It put weekly games on Thursdays when CFB had been doing it for years. Even on Amazon Prime, they kill whatever CFB game is on ESPN on Thursday. They killed all the Black Fridays CFB games this year.
There’s a reason why the Rose Bowl and other of the biggest bowl games (including the CFP) move their games when New Years Day falls on an NFL Sunday.
Right now, there probably isn’t any additional revenue for the NFL to play on Saturdays. But if there was, they couldn’t care less about CFB.
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Haha I have no idea what the trend will be. Hell I grew up watching the daily Sportscenter and it was the best part of the day. Now you get highlights on twitter minutes after it happens.
I just don't think if a kid likes football he or she won’t watch whatever is the popular version of CFB because Dad and Grandpa went to and cheer for Iowa State.
I don’t think this actually happens and obviously hope it doesn’t happen but as it’s been said before the networks and conferences won’t get to this without financial reason to.
It isn't about eliminating competition with schools outside the P2 and forming a super league. It's about the media companies only paying the schools that THEY value and everyone else taking less. ESPN does not want a commissioner of college football to negotiate against so there will probably never be one. They are not interested in what is best for the sport. I don't know how you watch anything that's happened over the last 20 years and pretend they aren't the real owners of college football and moving all the pieces toward that goal.
Every other conference and school not in the Big Ten or SEC should band together in a contract to negotiate with them. All or none. If the deal isn't fair, then screw them. Let them play amongst themselves.
That would be a huge mistake IMO. Alienate 75% of the fan bases to the point where most won't watch their new league (I most certainly wouldn't). Playing amongst themselves would mean 1/2 of them are going to be bad to mediocre whipping boys going forward.
Maybe not, but I could see that happening if dad or grandpa were Iowa State fans and stopped watching. Because that's basically what you have in the northeast/parts of the west coast: people are football fans, but they just watch the NFL and don't care about college football.
And I could definitely see people stop if there's a clean breakaway by the power 2 or if you have other changes (e.g. college players are considered employees and the rules change so that you no longer need to be a student in order to be on the team).
It's not about isolating the two leagues from everyone else. They do NOT want to do that.
It's about isolating the MONEY from everyone else. And creating avenues to do this by contracting with brands instead of conferences. Paying for ratings, while isolating slots to a handful of brands on Saturdays and putting everyone else on a streaming platform. Unequal revenue sharing. You don't need to kick out a Michigan State or Indiana. You just out them someplace few people see them and then say "this is why you are paid what you are." They've (media companies and biggest football brands) been working at this project for a very long time and they aren't turning back now.
It's about isolating the MONEY from everyone else. And creating avenues to do this by contracting with brands instead of conferences. Paying for ratings, while isolating slots to a handful of brands on Saturdays and putting everyone else on a streaming platform. Unequal revenue sharing. You don't need to kick out a Michigan State or Indiana. You just out them someplace few people see them and then say "this is why you are paid what you are." They've (media companies and biggest football brands) been working at this project for a very long time and they aren't turning back now.
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75% of the fan bases, maybe, but very few of them represent enough viewers to move the needle much, and the ones that do, will willingly join the fold if offered.
Regarding competition, never underestimate the placating power of a giant check... especially if the alternative is exile and insignificance.
This is where I think it's really heading. They'll set up playoff and basketball tourney payouts to be based off the number of games your conference plays. With the SEC and Big 10 getting the lion's share of the spots, they'll get the bulk of that revenue. By letting the Big 12 and ACC continue to play in those tournaments, they keep those viewers in the fold and ward off any possible anti-trust lawsuits.
I see there's a report out today that Pettiti wants to expand the playoffs to 14 or 16 with some guaranteed Big 10 and SEC spots (as well as some, but likely fewer) guaranteed Big 12 and ACC spots.
That's probably the most lucrative solution. A playoff that's mostly Big 10 and SEC schools, but enough of the others that A) we don't sue and B) we still watch.
Which I hate that many playoff teams, just waters down the regular season. I always thought 8 was the right number.
Disagree. I want the FCS style with 24 teams. A better chance that your team's season actually means something.
The regular season at that point would mean nothing then and ratings would take a serious hit over time. Also when you expand the field that much it just makes making the playoff mean significantly less.
