Bracketology 2024

[jctisu]

WSU loss is Q1b (fringe Q2a), Arizona probably isn't dropping much, if at all.

If one views UA's position on 1 line too high, that's a separate matter.

Oh not saying they shouldn’t be a 1 because of the Wazzu loss because Wazzu is a good team. But Arizona does have losses to Stanford by a lot and at Oregon State as well. And I am good with road losses as winning on the road no matter who you are is hard. But that means if you are a 1 seed team you should pretty much go undefeated at home. Not fair but getting swept by any team and still being a 1 seed to me isn’t the best look.

 

[Cyowa 14]

Gonzaga doesn't choose their league games. They do choose their non con. They chose to play Kentucky, Purdue, UConn, Syracuse, UCLA, Washington, USC and San Diego State. Some of that is Maui but others were standalone.

Oh they choose their league games, they could leave their conference yesterday but continue to choose to stay in the WCC and I don't blame them at all. They have the best setup in all of college bball, schedule hard in the non con when everyone is healthy then after your beat up from the non con you get to cake walk for 2 months until March plus everyone gives them a pass for the conference they play in, mainly because they deserve the benefit of doubt with their tourney performances, it's perfect for them

 

[madguy30]

They are being rewarded for aggressive scheduling. We are being punished for it.

Seems like we go in circles.

Now is when someone replies with something about how if Orlando broke differently, or if ISU didn't get DePaul this schedule would be perceived differently.

All things considered we are in a great position. We knew in November our noncon was going to limit our ceiling to some extent, we just didn't think ISU would come on so strong in league play and present an edge-case for seeding.

Pretty sure most people would have signed up for just getting in the tournament in November and it seems the scheduling was with giving the team chances to gel in mind.

Same with the ESPN tourney.

I'm still in that boat of 'get in and see how it goes' so from here it's just icing.

 

[ebState]

I also think it is bad to punish a school for having a super high conference SOS. Let’s just look at the whole season SOS.

It seems like the committee has chosen NOT to punish hard SOS. Which is why you get Baylors and Alabamas seeded ahead of us.

 

[clone52]

Gonzaga doesn't choose their league games. They do choose their non con. They chose to play Kentucky, Purdue, UConn, Syracuse, UCLA, Washington, USC and San Diego State. Some of that is Maui but others were standalone.

So if Gonzaga went 25-3 with wins over Kansas, Texas Tech and Baylor and losses to Houston, Baylor and Oklahoma you would choose them over a 25-3 Big 12 team with the same losses, just because the had a tougher OOC schedule?

 

[CRcyclone6]

We're not being victimized.

I'm assuming TJ asked for a lighter non con this year due to the roster turnover and dependency on freshmen.

In turn that likely led to someone scheduling some bad teams and getting DePaul in the challenge.

Then it turns out we didn't play the better teams in the tournament because we lost to the middle teams.

And iowa stinks.

And then this team goes on an improbable growth spurt and finds itself challenging for conference championship.

I wouldn't change a thing and am beyond excited that we're in a position to be thinking about a final four, regardless whether we get there as a 2 or 3 seed.

I'm confident TJ and Jamie will develop a schedule that matches the team next year as well once they know the final team composition.

Exactly. Our non-con this year was fine for what we thought we had. I'd consider Vtech and AM bad losses. Vtech because they aren't that good and AM because they had a couple starters out AND we lost a huge lead. We can't and shouldn't, schedule non-con like Gonzaga and UCONN.

 

[Cyowa 14]

Exactly. Our non-con this year was fine for what we thought we had. I'd consider Vtech and AM bad losses. Vtech because they aren't that good and AM because they had a couple starters out AND we lost a huge lead. We can't and shouldn't, schedule non-con like Gonzaga and UCONN.

Very well said, and I agree with you on va tech and A&M but somehow Va tech is 1 spot away in the NET from them both being Q1 losses. ISU would be 6-6 Q1 with all Q1 losses if they can get there

 

[cycloneworld]

Agree. We were ******** about our crappy non-con months ago...Jamie "trolled" us on Twitter, and here we are. We manipulated the NET but the committee paid attention. It's OK. Jamie can suck a fat one for trying to put us in our place.

I wouldn’t go that far. But I also don’t understand why so many fans are defending our non-con. It was god awful.

But we are in a position to get a 2 or 3 seed so not sure it’s worth opening up that box again. But you can see directly with Kansas why planning a tougher non-con can be beneficial.

 

[ZRF]

There's your poor presentation again.

Not sure why trash in this context gets you so riled up, but whether it's "terrible", "bad", "trash", "horrendous", etc all of those statements are accurate. That defensive rebounding rate is one of the worst in college basketball. This is after it jumped up 10 spots after the Houston game (said elsewhere it was probably the best rebounding performance of the season).

Part of the reason I bring it up is I think we can be better and I think it's something the team can actually control. When Tre is engaged and actively bodying up and timing his jump he can be an effective rebounder (on both ends). Same goes for Hason bodying up where BRE, at least on the defensive end, loses a lot of rebounds from poor hands and lack of hops.

As a trio our bigs can and should be better than they are. There's no reason, as a team, we should be this bad rebounding on the defensive end.

 

[CRcyclone6]

View attachment 124539

Not sure why trash in this context gets you so riled up, but whether it's "terrible", "bad", "trash", "horrendous", etc all of those statements are accurate. That defensive rebounding rate is one of the worst in college basketball. This is after it jumped up 10 spots after the Houston game (said elsewhere it was probably the best rebounding performance of the season).

Part of the reason I bring it up is I think we can be better and I think it's something the team can actually control. When Tre is engaged and actively bodying up and timing his jump he can be an effective rebounder (on both ends). Same goes for Hason bodying up where BRE, at least on the defensive end, loses a lot of rebounds from poor hands and lack of hops.

As a trio our bigs can and should be better than they are. There's no reason, as a team, we should be this bad rebounding on the defensive end.

Riled up. Sure.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

View attachment 124539

Not sure why trash in this context gets you so riled up, but whether it's "terrible", "bad", "trash", "horrendous", etc all of those statements are accurate. That defensive rebounding rate is one of the worst in college basketball. This is after it jumped up 10 spots after the Houston game (said elsewhere it was probably the best rebounding performance of the season).

Part of the reason I bring it up is I think we can be better and I think it's something the team can actually control. When Tre is engaged and actively bodying up and timing his jump he can be an effective rebounder (on both ends). Same goes for Hason bodying up where BRE, at least on the defensive end, loses a lot of rebounds from poor hands and lack of hops.

As a trio our bigs can and should be better than they are. There's no reason, as a team, we should be this bad rebounding on the defensive end.

It’s not that simple. Our opponents shoot a lot of 3-point shots due to our defensive scheme. Those naturally create longer rebounds, which are easier to get an offensive rebound than traditional 2-pointers because perimeter offensive players are in better position to get the loose ball.

Our defensive scheme also brings away a player from paint rebounding position because we are doubling/trapping so hard. Usually that double is coming from a post who would be in rebounding position. So if the opponent is able to get a shot off out of the double, we have one less player in ideal rebounding position than normal teams.

I don’t really think our poor rebounding is a matter of our bigs not boxing out, or mis-timing jumps or anything like that. Which is what you’re insinuating. Your stats basically say as much, since offensively we’re in the top 80 in rebounding, which we wouldn’t be if our bigs were poor rebounders.

 

[ISU_Guy]

all i care for ISU is we don't get paired up against some "BYU type streak shooting team" 1st and 2nd round and that we stay away from Uconn. I know they just got beat, but when they are focused they are unreal.

 

[ZRF]

It’s not that simple. Our opponents shoot a lot of 3-point shots due to our defensive scheme. Those naturally create longer rebounds, which are easier to get an offensive rebound than traditional 2-pointers because perimeter offensive players are in better position to get the loose ball.

Our defensive scheme also brings away a player from paint rebounding position because we are doubling/trapping so hard. Usually that double is coming from a post who would be in rebounding position. So if the opponent is able to get a shot off out of the double, we have one less player in ideal rebounding position than normal teams.

I don’t really think our poor rebounding is a matter of our bigs not boxing out, or mis-timing jumps or anything like that. Which is what you’re insinuating. Your stats basically say as much, since offensively we’re in the top 80 in rebounding, which we wouldn’t be if our bigs were poor rebounders.

This is partly true but you are attributing WAY too much of that disparity to "long" rebounds.

If you go back and watch our bigs, especially during conference play, they've c0nsistently given away rebounds they were on position to get, and ones they team should have corralled. Poor block outs, mistyped jumps, etc have absolutely nothing to do with the things you've mentioned. We also aren't talking about a "below average" defensive rebounding rste, but one that's one of the worst in college basketball. Big difference.

In the Houston game we sealed the lane and bodied up better than we have at any point this season, and against a team that's outstanding on the boards. I'm not asking for perfection but this illustrates we are MORE than capable of being better than 340 put of 363 (or whatever) teams. We not just can be we need to be.

 

[ZRF]

all i care for ISU is we don't get paired up against some "BYU type streak shooting team" 1st and 2nd round and that we stay away from Uconn. I know they just got beat, but when they are focused they are unreal.

They are the most complete team for sure.

 

[MushroomPinball]

I wouldn’t go that far. But I also don’t understand why so many fans are defending our non-con. It was god awful.

But we are in a position to get a 2 or 3 seed so not sure it’s worth opening up that box again. But you can see directly with Kansas why planning a tougher non-con can be beneficial.

I have no idea what Jamie and TJ have planned for next year, but I would imagine with what Iowa State will have potentially returning they might look to schedule more aggressively next season. Maui itself will be incredible. Experienced back courts are what win in March and also what can allow you to schedule tougher earlier in the season and not be worried about losing too many games. I'd love to see TJ scheduling home and homes with midwest teams like Creighton or Minnesota. This is my hope for next year at least.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

This is partly true but you are attributing WAY too much of that disparity to "long" rebounds.

If you go back and watch our bigs, especially during conference play, they've c0nsistently given away rebounds they were on position to get, and ones they team should have corralled. Poor block outs, mistyped jumps, etc have absolutely nothing to do with the things you've mentioned. We also aren't talking about a "below average" defensive rebounding rste, but one that's one of the worst in college basketball. Big difference.

In the Houston game we sealed the lane and bodied up better than we have at any point this season, and against a team that's outstanding on the boards. I'm not asking for perfection but this illustrates we are MORE than capable of being better than 340 put of 363 (or whatever) teams. We not just can be we need to be.

Where did you pull your stats from? According to this we’re 182nd in defensive rebounding rate and 89th in overall rebounding rate. So not elite, but not one of the worst in D1. About average to slightly above average in offensive rebounding. I would say those are the rebound ranks I’d expect given our defensive scheme.

I can’t find a stat to back up long rebounds, but we are 352nd in the nation in opponent three point attempts. 45.7% of opponents shots against us are 3 pointers. That’s the second-highest rate among P6 teams (only behind Miami, who’s 111th in defensive rebound %). So using logic, we’ll have more long rebound opportunities than any of our peers.

I also can’t think of glaring examples where we’ve given away tons of rebounds we were in position to get. I’m sure it happens (as it does to every team), but I don’t think it’s consistent. And the stats would back that up as well.

 

[ZRF]

Where did you pull your stats from? According to this we’re 182nd in defensive rebounding rate and 89th in overall rebounding rate. So not elite, but not one of the worst in D1. About average to slightly above average in offensive rebounding. I would say those are the rebound ranks I’d expect given our defensive scheme.

I can’t find a stat to back up long rebounds, but we are 352nd in the nation in opponent three point attempts. 45.7% of opponents shots against us are 3 pointers. That’s the second-highest rate among P6 teams (only behind Miami, who’s 111th in defensive rebound %). So using logic, we’ll have more long rebound opportunities than any of our peers.

I also can’t think of glaring examples where we’ve given away tons of rebounds we were in position to get. I’m sure it happens (as it does to every team), but I don’t think it’s consistent. And the stats would back that up as well.

Rebounding stats against moribund opponents, like the majority of our non con, are useless. Since (for some reason) you can't sort team stats by conference play on Torvik, I sort from 1/1/24 on to limit to conference games.

Admittedly the conference stats will include some teams from other crap conferences and they are largely irrelevant. But if you sort from 1/1/24 and limit to Big 12 conference only we were last before the Houston game and after which leaped over Tech. Us and Tech are easily the most defensive rebounding teams in the league.

Hope that helps (sorry I didn't explain that before).

 

[Cyowa 14]

I have no idea what Jamie and TJ have planned for next year, but I would imagine with what Iowa State will have potentially returning they might look to schedule more aggressively next season. Maui itself will be incredible. Experienced back courts are what win in March and also what can allow you to schedule tougher earlier in the season and not be worried about losing too many games. I'd love to see TJ scheduling home and homes with midwest teams like Creighton or Minnesota. This is my hope for next year at least.

Going to get 3 tough games in Maui more than likely, Iowa, and definitely a tougher big east team than DePaul. That's more than enough for the non con

 

[cycloneworld]

We fell 4 spots in KenPom. Seems drastic but shows you how sensitive the model is.

 

[JRE1975]

I see Alabama is improving their resume by giving up 59 points in the first half to Kentucky!

Wonder how far they will fall in Kenpom!