Bracketology 2024

[twincyties]

While you could be right I refuse to believe it was Arizona. Losses to Stanford, Oregon State, and USC has to mean something

I agree it doesn’t make a lot of sense when you consider the tourney results going into yesterday and these losses you mention. But it does fit the “conference tournament doesn’t matter that much” narrative that you hear a lot. Meaning these teams were in that 4-7 territory.

 

[chuckd4735]

The Bracket Project - Ranking the Bracketologists

www.bracketmatrix.com

Linardi and Palm are bad at placing teams on seed lines, they usually get all teams in the field though. But most everyone who's dialed into this process can field 68. Seeding them separates men from boys

Getting regions right and first/second round locations as well. I wish BP would score on that.

 

[mctallerton]

While you could be right I refuse to believe it was Arizona. Losses to Stanford, Oregon State, and USC has to mean something

Arizona has good metrics and as of this morning I believe is still 4th in the NET, but I'm just having my coffee so I'm not sure

 

[mctallerton]

Shorts Travel in Waterloo actually schedules all travel. It's an insane task to get 134 teams to sites in 2 days.

I didn't know that, I only knew Sun Country was the air operator

 

[mctallerton]

Same rules apply for basketball though

Baseball doesn't seed 1-64, just 1-16 for regional hosts

 

[BigJCy]

I don't think we will get a 1 seed. If we get a 2 seed in the Midwest or West I will be happy. Just don't put us as the 2 seed in the East. Playing UCONN in Boston would not be great. Especially since UCONN has know for quite awhile now they were heading to Boston and I'm sure have ate up most of the tickets.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

@NiceMarmot (or anyone) do they prioritize geography over S-Curve (competitive balance) for teams with seeds 5-16? That seems silly to me and a disadvantage to teams with seeds 4 or better

 

[WastedTalent]

Interesting that the bid stealers are moving the bubble, so now the play-in games will be 10 seeds.

 

[Inthesystem]

Fwiw I think we have that motivation either way. Either we aren't a 1 seed, or plenty of people say we didn't deserve a 1 seed if we are. Either way, bulletin board material!

Teams are amazingly good at coming up with bulletin board material.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Bracket Matrix updated this morning and we are the #6 overall seed, number two 2 seed, behind Tennessee.

Unfortunately, in this scenario, Knoxville is closer to Detroit than Dallas so they’d get the #2 in the MW. That’s bad for us, because we can’t go to Dallas as Houston is the 1 seed in that region. That means the next closest regional locale is… you guessed it, Boston. So, that would put us as the 2 in the East.

In this scenario, it would have been better for UNC to beat NC State last night and potentially jump Houston. That would put UNC in Dallas and allow us to go there as the 2 rather than the East with UConn.

 

[NiceMarmot]

@NiceMarmot (or anyone) do they prioritize geography over S-Curve (competitive balance) for teams with seeds 5-16? That seems silly to me and a disadvantage to teams with seeds 4 or better

Geography and avoiding regular season rematches in round 1 (and round 2 unless there's absolutely no other option) is the priority. 5-16 seed S-Curve is not a thing.

 

[Big_Sill]

I do want a 1 seed, with that will come some hate from the talking heads…but who cares.

For the record, I don’t think we get one and I think that would be a fair and reasonable answer.

 

[NiceMarmot]

I posted the above info back in this thread on Feb 28, but just a reminder for everyone in this thread, here are some good brackets to check out tonight and tomorrow morning, mine included.

Reading through these last 10 pages and the misinformation is honestly shocking. This isn't THAT difficult.

1. Your 1st weekend site (Omaha) has no impact on your 2nd weekend site (Detroit or Boston or LA).
2. What days you play on 1st weekend has no impact on dates you can or can't play on 2nd weekend.
3. If teams from the same conference are in the overall top-16 list, they must be placed in different regions (Midwest, East, West, South), but CAN PLAY at the same 1st weekend site (e.g. ISU/Kansas can both play in Omaha).

I will have an updated seed list later tonight with the top 16 designated to their regions and will have an updated bracket tomorrow mid-afternoon. I want to wait and see what happen in Ivy, A-10, and American finals before going through the headache of arranging the bracket.

I'm working through building my final Selection Sunday seed list and bracket. Currently have spots 1-24 set (seed lines 1-6).

One interesting development that will pique ISU fans' interest. I have Illinois at 11 and Kansas at 12. Illinois is 479 miles away and a 7:07 drive to Pittsburgh; they are 489 miles and a 6:52 drive to Omaha. I could be wrong but I believe the committee does distance placement based on pure miles, not drive time. Technically, that would place Illinois in Pittsburgh and Kansas in Omaha. But that feels wrong. I could be wrong but I'm guessing Illinois fans would prefer the commute to Omaha versus Pittsburgh. Who knows.

 

[clone37]

Bracket Matrix updated this morning and we are the #6 overall seed, number two 2 seed, behind Tennessee.

Unfortunately, in this scenario, Knoxville is closer to Detroit than Dallas so they’d get the #2 in the MW. That’s bad for us, because we can’t go to Dallas as Houston is the 1 seed in that region. That means the next closest regional locale is… you guessed it, Boston. So, that would put us as the 2 in the East.

In this scenario, it would have been better for UNC to beat NC State last night and potentially jump Houston. That would put UNC in Dallas and allow us to go there as the 2 rather than the East with UConn.

Tennessee absolutely should not be above us.

 

[BigJCy]

Bracket Matrix updated this morning and we are the #6 overall seed, number two 2 seed, behind Tennessee.

Unfortunately, in this scenario, Knoxville is closer to Detroit than Dallas so they’d get the #2 in the MW. That’s bad for us, because we can’t go to Dallas as Houston is the 1 seed in that region. That means the next closest regional locale is… you guessed it, Boston. So, that would put us as the 2 in the East.

Yep, have a bad feeling this is what's going to end up happening. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[clone52]

Interesting NET details with ISU-UNC comparison. Both teams have same combined record in Q1/Q2 (16-7) and Q3/Q4 (11-0).

NC has better win% vs. Q1, ISU better vs Q2; NC has more wins in Q3, fewer Q4 games (both are unbeaten in Q3 & Q4).

I don't know specifically how much factor some of that is, just found it intriguing.

Iowa State has more Q1 wins and a better Q1a record.

 

[Pope]

Choosing between being a 2 seed in Omaha or a 1 seed somewhere else is a very tough choice for me. I'm on the fence, but I guess I would fall on the 1 seed side.

The good news is that either option is absolutely great, so I won't complain too much if we end up a 2 seed.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Tennessee absolutely should not be above us.

I don’t necessarily disagree (I don’t know Tennessee’s metrics). I’m just going off what Bracket Matrix has

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Geography and avoiding regular season rematches in round 1 (and round 2 unless there's absolutely no other option) is the priority. 5-16 seed S-Curve is not a thing.

They don’t rank teams 1-68?

 

[clone52]

I'm working through building my final Selection Sunday seed list and bracket. Currently have spots 1-24 set (seed lines 1-6).

One interesting development that will pique ISU fans' interest. I have Illinois at 11 and Kansas at 12. Illinois is 479 miles away and a 7:07 drive to Pittsburgh; they are 489 miles and a 6:52 drive to Omaha. I could be wrong but I believe the committee does distance placement based on pure miles, not drive time. Technically, that would place Illinois in Pittsburgh and Kansas in Omaha. But that feels wrong. I could be wrong but I'm guessing Illinois fans would prefer the commute to Omaha versus Pittsburgh. Who knows.

I tried one for the first time ever. Also have Illinois 11.

I ended up putting BYU 15 and Wisconsin 16. Kentucky and Alabama 17, 18.

Kentucky got some big wins late but their overall resume doesn't seem that impressive.