2024 NCAA Tournament Thread

[BoxsterCy]

the UCONN game is over. Iowa plays for the championship tomorrow. Now the question becomes: can Staley actually strategize to win? Or will Iowas coaches nuke their talent advantage like last year?

SC is a better team than last year. They can shoot the three and Cardoso has developed some nice offensive moves beyond just being tall. They are deep; Staley often does a full line change substitution. They have some elite athletic talent in Fulwiley and Watkins.

But they’ve also had several close calls. At times they lose focus and almost seem to assume they’ll win. They have given up 20+ point leads multiple times recently but managed to come away with a win.

I’ve doubted Iowa many times in this tournament and they just keep winning. I want SC to pound them into dust but I give Iowa a good chance of making this a game and even winning.

Iowa can't shoot 25% from three and hope to be in. Individual talent-wise it's a pretty big mismatch. The difference between SC and UConn and LSU is they are crazy deep and can roll out nine Top 25 rated recruits versus Iowa having only Stuelke to pair with Clark and than it's a bunch of good/average (but experienced) players for Iowa.

This talent level mismatch is vast:

• R. Johnson, #2 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Feagin, #4 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Cardoso, #5, recruit, McDonalds AA
• Paopao, #11 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Watkins, #12 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Fulwiley, #13 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Hall, #14 recruit, McDonalds AA
• T. Johnson, #25 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Kitts, #17 recruit
• Jah, #40 recruit

With what they returned I figured Iowa would be Elite Eight as a ceiling, figured Clark might be be able to carry them to that. But Martin stepped up all year and Marshall did a late season surge like last year. Stuelke improved and Affolter stepped up big when Davis got hurt.

Not making the Final Four with the SC lineup would have been a HUGE failure. Making the Final Four, let alone the title game again, with Iowa's unheralded recruits is a pretty big accomplishment.

 

[cytor]

If Marshall would have fouled Bueckers making her miss a winning shot, should that have been called or swallow your whistle and let the players determine the game?

If it's obvious... yes call the foul. The "moving screen" was not obvious.... and it wasn't consistently called during the game either.

 

[throwittoblythe]

Iowa can't shoot 25% from three and hope to be in. Individual talent-wise it's a pretty big mismatch. The difference between SC and UConn and LSU is they are crazy deep and can roll out nine Top 25 rated recruits versus Iowa having only Stuelke to pair with Clark and than it's a bunch of good/average (but experienced) players for Iowa.

This talent level mismatch is vast:

• R. Johnson, #2 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Feagin, #4 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Cardoso, #5, recruit, McDonalds AA
• Paopao, #11 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Watkins, #12 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Fulwiley, #13 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Hall, #14 recruit, McDonalds AA
• T. Johnson, #25 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Kitts, #17 recruit
• Jah, #40 recruit

With what they returned I figured Iowa would be Elite Eight as a ceiling, figured Clark might be be able to carry them to that. But Martin stepped up all year and Marshall did a late season surge like last year. Stuelke improved and Affolter stepped up big when Davis got hurt.

Not making the Final Four with the SC lineup would have been a HUGE failure. Making the Final Four, let alone the title game again, with Iowa's unheralded recruits is a pretty big accomplishment.

Playing devils advocate: didn’t SC have a similar talent advantage last year?

 

[Gonzo]

Iowa can't shoot 25% from three and hope to be in. Individual talent-wise it's a pretty big mismatch. The difference between SC and UConn and LSU is they are crazy deep and can roll out nine Top 25 rated recruits versus Iowa having only Stuelke to pair with Clark and than it's a bunch of good/average (but experienced) players for Iowa.

This talent level mismatch is vast:

• R. Johnson, #2 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Feagin, #4 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Cardoso, #5, recruit, McDonalds AA
• Paopao, #11 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Watkins, #12 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Fulwiley, #13 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Hall, #14 recruit, McDonalds AA
• T. Johnson, #25 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Kitts, #17 recruit
• Jah, #40 recruit

With what they returned I figured Iowa would be Elite Eight as a ceiling, figured Clark might be be able to carry them to that. But Martin stepped up all year and Marshall did a late season surge like last year. Stuelke improved and Affolter stepped up big when Davis got hurt.

Not making the Final Four with the SC lineup would have been a HUGE failure. Making the Final Four, let alone the title game again, with Iowa's unheralded recruits is a pretty big accomplishment.

I figured they'd lose in the Sweet Sixteen, with the Elite Eight being their absolute ceiling. Kate has really stepped up her game and made some crucial shots, Gabbie's D has been huge, and even O'Grady bodying up on Reese was a huge improvement on her season. Supporting cast has been the difference.

 

[ameslurker]

My quick thoughts...

Iowa played about as bad as you could play and were lucky to win. If their 3s aren't falling tomorrow it could be a long day for them. On that note, it could go the other way too. They had some of the worst passing and lazy closeouts I can recall a college team doing and somehow still won. Maybe this wakes them up a little more.

I sat with my wife saying over and over last night I didn't understand the screen call. After seeing it again it was the right call. Admittedly I wasn't watching the screen as closely live and replays didn't show the whole thing last night.

South Carolina will have a major talent advantage across the board with the exception of Clark. Last year Iowa packed the paint and forced SC to shoot from distance. They're able to make those now. If Iowa wants a chance they're going to have to get creative on their game plan.

UCONN gave the blueprint on guarding Clark. 94 feet of face guarding. Absolutely no room to breathe. Will Staley copy that? Or will she be stubborn and go to her own plan?

Lastly...a lot of people here rightfully hate Iowa. But sweet baby Jesus if you hate watching the team or Clark that much just don't watch

 

[3TrueFans]

When @joefrog says someone is insufferable you know things are ****** up.

 

[isu81]

UConn took away passing lanes and were aggressive on Clark all over the court. That took Clark out of her game but also negated their size/rebounding advantage. Pick your poison. Shocked if Iowa stays within 10.

 

[iahawks]

Rex is good Twitter follow. Here's another one.

I said the same thing. She handled it really well and she will go far in her life.

 

[CRcyclone6]

Staley seriously dislikes Iowa and CC. There won't be any lost focus on her part, and this year's team IMO is much more balanced in terms of post/perimeter, Iowa won't be able to just pack it in and give them open looks all night.

SC has too much talent, will win by 20+.

Does SC still have the player than Clark waved off last year and wouldn't even guard from the 3pt line?

 

[Gonzo]

Does SC still have the player than Clark waved off last year and wouldn't even guard from the 3pt line?

Yep. Raven Johnson, G.

 

[Cychl82]

I figured they'd lose in the Sweet Sixteen, with the Elite Eight being their absolute ceiling. Kate has really stepped up her game and made some crucial shots, Gabbie's D has been huge, and even O'Grady bodying up on Reese was a huge improvement on her season. Supporting cast has been the difference.

Agree, I’ll admit I thought they’d be done earlier too. Couple girls have really stepped up

 

[Gunnerclone]

Iowa can't shoot 25% from three and hope to be in. Individual talent-wise it's a pretty big mismatch. The difference between SC and UConn and LSU is they are crazy deep and can roll out nine Top 25 rated recruits versus Iowa having only Stuelke to pair with Clark and than it's a bunch of good/average (but experienced) players for Iowa.

This talent level mismatch is vast:

• R. Johnson, #2 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Feagin, #4 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Cardoso, #5, recruit, McDonalds AA
• Paopao, #11 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Watkins, #12 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Fulwiley, #13 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Hall, #14 recruit, McDonalds AA
• T. Johnson, #25 recruit, McDonalds AA
• Kitts, #17 recruit
• Jah, #40 recruit

With what they returned I figured Iowa would be Elite Eight as a ceiling, figured Clark might be be able to carry them to that. But Martin stepped up all year and Marshall did a late season surge like last year. Stuelke improved and Affolter stepped up big when Davis got hurt.

Not making the Final Four with the SC lineup would have been a HUGE failure. Making the Final Four, let alone the title game again, with Iowa's unheralded recruits is a pretty big accomplishment.

I looked at the SC roster and they are tall everywhere.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Does SC still have the player than Clark waved off last year and wouldn't even guard from the 3pt line?

28-76 this year for 36% 38%ish?14-58 previous year. 20%ish.

 

[KidSilverhair]

UConn took away passing lanes and were aggressive on Clark all over the court. That took Clark out of her game but also negated their size/rebounding advantage. Pick your poison. Shocked if Iowa stays within 10.

A lot of the better defensive teams late in this tournament have done a great job of cutting off/jumping on the passes Iowa was able to get away with in the B1G. UConn, LSU, West Virginia … they intercepted a bunch of the usual Hawkeye bounce passes/whipped throws through traffic that bumfuzzled teams in the regular season, and really frustrated Clark and the rest of the team. The blueprint is out there, all SC has to do is put it into action.

 

[throwittoblythe]

I looked at the SC roster and they are tall everywhere.

I would’ve guessed Fulwiley was like 5’6” +\- but they have her at 5’10”.

 

[Kinch]

Clark is going to have to start defending the threes.

 

[Gonzo]

I looked at the SC roster and they are tall everywhere.

Watkins is the best and most well-rounded player on their team IMO. Very athletic, great off the dribble, fast, can jump through the roof... oh, and she's 6'3. Love her game.

 

[throwittoblythe]

Watkins is the best and most well-rounded player on their team IMO. Very athletic, great off the dribble, fast, can jump through the roof... oh, and she's 6'3. Love her game.

She’s crazy athletic. But she does make some silly mistakes on the offensive end every game. Plus she can compound those mistakes by immediately fouling when she gets the ball stolen.

 

[Kinch]

about the best way to beat South Carolina is to get to the foul line more. Tennessee showed that in the SEC tourney.

 

[HoopsTournament]

Had a couple of my ref friends share their thoughts on Facebook.

One said:

Completely, and totally illegal screen. And if it goes uncalled and that girl curls around the pic and drains a three or gets it inside the post for an easy two, everybody ******** about how they shouldn’t have called that illegal screen would start ******** about how they should’ve called it because they “took the game away from Iowa.”

Other said:

Not only the leg and arm sticks out she still sliding up to set the screen as the contact is made. I will say she did a great job drawing attention to it!!! Got to sell it baby!