The ranking in their draft class is meaningless. If it did, you'd consider Jeff Lewis a similar QB prospect to Ben Roethlisberger.
Ponder was the 4th QB picked, but there was really only 1 high end QB in that draft. Cam Newton. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert weren't blowing people away. The next QBs taken were Andy Dalton and Kaepernick in Rd 2.
The consensus in this draft is that there is a LOT of QB depth. Just because he might be the fifth best prospect QB doesn't mean he'd be the fifth best QB in each draft.
Now, most analysts thing there is a drop after the Top 4, so you might be right on Penix at 11 as a reach. But I think he is better than that. Its also not just a decision of Penix versus McCarthy or Maye. It's Penix+23rd pick+first rounder next year. You'd better be damn sure McCarthy or Maye is head and shoulders ahead of Penix before making that trade.
And maybe if you don't love Maye or McCarthy enough to move up, you just risk that the drop to 11th. Or risk that Penix drops to 23rd. See how the QB market plays out. If the Bronco's move up for a QB, maybe you can trade down from 11 and get more draft capital.
That said, if they trade away the farm to move up, I'll hope on the hype train for whatever QB they get. Even if he's a bust, I'd rather get excited until he's proven a bust than be miserable assuming he will be a bust.
I don't know that draft rankings are meaningless, it really depends on the criteria used for them and who's doing them.
Problem is there are intangibles that play a big factor, especially for QBs. Take Ponder for instance, he had a legit photographic memory which is what wow'd the Vikings. But his processing speed was horrible which is why during games he couldn't make decisions quickly...or even good decisions
I'm with you on the Maye and McCarthy vs Penix thing. If they don't consider M&M way better prospects than Penix, don't trade up.
I loved Penix in that semifinal game and came away hoping the Vikings could get him later in the draft because he wasn't being talked about as a 1st rounder. But man did he look bad against Michigan and then with his injury history I kind of soured on him. But there's no doubt he's got the arm talent.
All of these QBs have their pros and cons. Good news is it sounds like KOC is really testing them when they visit. Seeing how they react off-schedule. Giving them plays in meetings and then going to the field and changing up the plays or giving them wrong plays and see how they react. Putting them in bad situations on the field and seeing how they process and react. So hopefully it pays off.
And I'm with you, I'll be on the hype train. I trust KOC enough after what he did with Dobbs and Mullins last year to think he can work with whoever they draft.