Head coach: Matt Campbell (ninth year, 53-48 overall)
2024 projection: 30th in SP+, 7.5 average wins (5.3 in Big 12)
Nine years is long enough for a couple of different narrative arcs. For a while, we talked about Matt Campbell as the chosen one, a coach destined to land one of the sport's huge jobs. But after a preseason top-10 ranking in 2021, his Cyclones lost 14 of 21 games starting in late 2021, and Campbell became the poster boy for missed opportunities and closed windows.
Now comes a chance at another plot device: the redemption arc. ISU finished the 2023 regular season with five wins in seven games. Freshmen seized opportunities at quarterback (Rocco Becht), running back (Abu Sama III) and tight end (Benjamin Brahmer), and a young defense with 12 freshmen and sophomores logging at least 200 snaps finished in the defensive SP+ top 30. (This was nothing new: Jon Heacock's 3-3-5 defense has averaged a 26.3 ranking since 2017.)
ISU currently ranks first nationally in returning production. Becht is back after throwing for 3,120 yards and 23 touchdowns. Sama, who rushed for 276 yards and three scores against Kansas State, will run behind a huge line (average size: 6-foot-6, 323 pounds) that returns all five starters. The top four passing targets return, including slot receiver Jaylin Noel, big-play man Jayden Higgins and Brahmer; Campbell also added potential deep threats in NDSU's Elijah Green and Army's Isaiah Alston.
The defense was mostly sound against the run but all-or-nothing against the pass. Every primary lineman returns, led by tackle Tyler Onyedim, and Campbell added end Kenard Snyder (15 TFLs) from ULM. The secondary returns six of last year's top eight, including corner Myles Purchase (13 breakups) and safety Jeremiah Cooper (five INTs, 13 breakups). Any semblance of a pass rush -- the Cyclones were 122nd in sack rate and almost never blitzed -- would make this a potential top-20 unit.
Closed windows or not, there are worse things in the world than simply ending up as ISU's best coach in 40-plus years. If Campbell's Cyclones improve as projected and figure out what they did to offend the god of close games -- they've won just three of their past 16 one-score finishes -- they are absolute Big 12 contenders.
My favorite player: WR Jayden Higgins. In the past 20 years, an Iowa State player has produced at least 170 receiving yards in a game just seven times. Two of them came from Higgins in the second half of last season. He caught six passes for 172 yards in a blowout of Cincinnati, then caught nine for 214 in the Liberty Bowl against Memphis. Among those with 40-plus targets, Higgins was second in the Big 12 in yards per route and yards per game, fourth in contested catches and sixth in yards per catch. There are potential stars everywhere you look on this offense, but he might be at the top of the list.