2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
B12 E:
ISU
KSU
KU
UCF
Cincy
WVU
Pitt
NCSU
VT
Louisville
B12 W:
OSU
CU
Baylor
Tech
TCU
Houston
Utah
BYU
Zona
ASU
That's drops them out of 4 team consideration so CU, ISU and ASU are compared. CU beat Tech and BYU (highest common teams) so get in. ASU compared to ISU (ASU beat Kansas, ISU lost to Kansas).
Parlay of ISU, UH, CO, ASU, TT for the case that we win and get left out by a bad scenario.
KSU ML for the case of us losing. Only way you'll lose money here is if ISU wins and gets into the ship
Of course ESPN only mentions the blue blood(North Carolina) and the $EC school. Everyone in the country needs to boycott all ESPN television/media of any kind unless they are broadcasting the game you want to watch. As soon as those games are over, change the channel and never visit their websites/social media profiles.
just going to approach this as ISU wins they are in. the rest makes my head hurt.
I don't trust ISU at all in these situations, so I am going to temper my expectations.
and No way BYU loses to Houston
Not sure why every one of these leagues is throwing their hands up wondering why all this is a Sh1tshow sorting out the standings because the teams don't play half the conference.
Would have been funny if Iowa didn't choke against MSU and UCLA, and they would probably have been 8-1 an not have to play the entire top half of the conference (minus OSU)
Even ISU caught a massive unrealized break with not having to play OSU, BYU, ASU, CU, etc
Although turns out OSU sucks.
that is why these massive leagues are fricking joke. The pac 12 teams in all these other leagues is more like an arranged marriage feeling.
The last few years of the 10 team big 12 league was the best determination of a conference champ. everyone plays everyone. crazy concept.
I don't trust ISU at all in these situations, so I am going to temper my expectations.
and No way BYU loses to Houston
Not sure why every one of these leagues is throwing their hands up wondering why all this is a Sh1tshow sorting out the standings because the teams don't play half the conference.
Would have been funny if Iowa didn't choke against MSU and UCLA, and they would probably have been 8-1 an not have to play the entire top half of the conference (minus OSU)
Even ISU caught a massive unrealized break with not having to play OSU, BYU, ASU, CU, etc
Although turns out OSU sucks.
that is why these massive leagues are fricking joke. The pac 12 teams in all these other leagues is more like an arranged marriage feeling.
The last few years of the 10 team big 12 league was the best determination of a conference champ. everyone plays everyone. crazy concept.
Get 10 wins (that monkey) gone and let the chips fall.
What if we entered the season with our 9th conference game opponent TBD after 8 conference games have been played?
We do our best to ensure everyone gets all the home games they need monetarily and that no one plays the same opponent twice.
After that, we game the system in many ways:
We do our best to ensure everyone gets all the home games they need monetarily and that no one plays the same opponent twice.
After that, we game the system in many ways:
- This year we could put ASU against Colorado and BYU against ISU to determine our championship game on the field.
- The B1G championship has been determined because Oregon is undefeated and OSU beat both PSU & IU straight up.
- Schedule all 4 cupcakes to ensure they all stay undefeated and get into the playoff.
- Or if you want to make money put IU and PSU against one another for TV ratings.
- ACC could have Clemson and Miami do a play-in game.
- If you have a team outside of the playoff at large due to lack of Quality opponents, you could give them a tough opponent to bolster their resume.
- Kansas & Cinci need another win for a bowl appearance, schedule them our bottom dwellers to get them there.
Timeline of Clinching B12 championship game (assuming we win)
Friday Night:
OkState > Colorado
Saturday 11AM:
WVU > Tech
If WVU loses to Tech then there's one more shot at us controlling our destiny before kickoff:
Baylor > KU (11am) & Cincy > TCU (5pm)
IF none of those scenarios hit, then BYU HAS to beat Houston which is after our game.
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Friday Night:
OkState > Colorado
Saturday 11AM:
WVU > Tech
If WVU loses to Tech then there's one more shot at us controlling our destiny before kickoff:
Baylor > KU (11am) & Cincy > TCU (5pm)
IF none of those scenarios hit, then BYU HAS to beat Houston which is after our game.
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
ASU losing would also clinch controlling our destiny. Add that (at 2:30 Sat) and I believe you are correct.
(To be a pedant, one could also point out that Cincy/TCU will not be done before our kickoff.)
Is there any way to figure if ISU will be 1st or 2nd place? Or is that a mugs game at this point?
Asking because I was just looking at CCG tickets and had to wonder which side we would be on, assuming they make it.
Asking because I was just looking at CCG tickets and had to wonder which side we would be on, assuming they make it.
The thing that confuses me is that (assuming CU, ISU, and ASU win; but BYU loses) then we will have a victory over a common opponent of CU, which is K State. We lost to Tech. They lost to K State. Then what?
I must be missing something, just not sure what.
I think, unless ASU loses to Arizona, most of our CCG scenarios have us in the #2 position.
1. If we beat K State, they drop to 5-4 in conference play
2. Tech wins they will be 6-3.
3. There will be a tie between Baylor, BYU, TTU, and TCU at the #4
4. Colorado will be 1-0 over those 4 teams.
5. ISU will be 0-1over those 4 teams.
6. That is where the tie is broken, and Colorado gets the nod above us.
First team in the CCG:
The problem is, if ISU, ASU, and CU all win and BYU loses, you have to look at common opponents for all three teams: UCF, Tech, Kansas, Cinci, Utah, KSU.
- ISU was 4-2 (losses to Kansas, Tech).
- ASU was 4-2 (losses to Cinci, Tech).
- CU was 4-2 (losses to KSU, Kansas).
- If Tech is 6-3, CU has the best record against the group of 6-3 teams since ISU and ASU lost to Tech.
- If Tech and Kansas are both 5-4 (along with KSU), ASU has the best record against the group of teams tied at 5-4.
- If Tech is 5-4 with KSU but Kansas is 4-5, all three teams have one loss vs the 5-4 group, and it goes to record vs the 4-5 group of teams:
- If Cinci is 3-6, ASU has the best record vs the teams tied at 4-5.
- If Cinci is 4-5, all three teams have one loss vs the teams tied at 4-5. Then the tiebreaker comes down to conference win percentage among conference opponents, and ISU wins that.
Second team in the CCG:
Common opponents between ISU/ASU are the same as above.
Common opponents between ISU/CU are the same as above plus Baylor, but both teams beat Baylor so they don't matter.
Common opponents between ASU/CU are the same as above plus Arizona, but both teams beat Arizona in this scenario so they don't matter.
- If Tech is 6-3 -- CU is #1 as noted above:
- If Kansas is 5-4 OR Cinci is 3-6, then ASU has a better record vs teams with whichever record Kansas has (5-4 or 4-5). This is the doomsday scenario.
- If Kansas and Cinci are both 4-5, then it comes down to opponent win %, which ISU wins.
- If Tech and Kansas are both 5-4 (along with KSU) -- ASU is #1 as noted above:
- All the common opponents CU and ISU lost to are 5-4, so it comes down to opponent win %, which ISU wins.
- If Tech is 5-4 with KSU but Kansas is 4-5, and Cinci is 3-6 -- ASU is #1 as noted above.
- ISU and CU both have one common opponent loss that is 5-4 and one that is 4-5, so it comes down to opponent win %, which ISU wins.
- If Tech is 5-4 with KSU but Kansas is 4-5, and Cinci is 4-5 -- ISU is #1 as noted above.
- ASU and CU both have one common opponent loss at 5-4 and one at 4-5. They have identical opponent win percentages. Believe it or not, this comes down to total Div I victories, so ASU is in because they were 3-0 in the non-conference, and in old-school Big Eight fashion, Colorado's fate hinges on their loss to Nebraska.
Thank you both!
The thing I was missing was that we have to look at the common opponents of all 3 tied teams as a "whole," not just 2 different head-to-head commonalities. IE, we have to compare ISU, CU, and ASU as a big lump, not CU vs. ISU then ASU vs. ISU.
I also didn't understand the top down part (until now, mostly...)
(mostly kidding)
Not sure ISU lost to Tech. Pretty sure ISU lost to ISU that day.
