I'm with you all that the B12 is getting the shaft here (especially ASU dropping after a win), that said the sky is also not falling nearly as much as some of you are saying. The problem we had is exactly what CW said in his Sunday podcast - no one emerged as a clear top dog in the B12 and the teams that tied for 1st were not the ones ranked high to begin the year so we got penalized. IMO - it's best if the B12 develops a new pecking order where 2-3 teams tend to dominate. If they win Playoff or high level non-playoff matchups with P4 teams, those teams will start to get respect over time similar to Clemson who was not a football power 15 years ago.
The key matchups we have to watch are 10 BSU vs 20 UNLV and 8 SMU vs 17 Clemson. ASU is 15 and ISU is 16. If 17 Clemson beats 8 SMU, they almost certainly jump the B12 winner both in terms of plain logic (beating the #8 team should move you up more than beating the #15/16 team) and in terms of committee scheming for TV dollars. However, if UNLV beats Boise, the B12 winner will likely jump them for the 4th first round bye. UNLV might go up to being ranked say 14 or 15, but the B12 winner is starting higher and should move above UNLV. Plus, the B12 winner will have higher media value than UNLV.
But let's say no upsets happen - we're probably on the outside looking in for the bye. So who else are we looking at here that's in the 8-12 seeding range? All those teams are likely locked in since none play this week. But in ESPN's bracket they have us facing Penn State #5 and then Boise. I would not at all be scared of that matchup. Penn State is a paper tiger - they've made hay against bad teams in the B1G, had a close loss to OSU who also appears overrated based on their loss to Michigan. I think there's a good chance they get blown out in the B1G title game. Playing PSU at home will be tough, but I think we can win. It's not much harder to win there than at Kinnick Stadium. And if they get blown out by Oregon, they might drop to the 6 line which means we likely get Notre Dame, which I feel even better about. If we win that, we get Boise at a neutral site which also does not scare me. After that you're up against Oregon which is tough. But seriously, even if the B12 winner gets the 12th seed it's not a terrible path. The committee may be setting us up to get 2 "upset" wins.