2012 AP Poll Predictions
- Thread starter psychlone99
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C
CyBer
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C
CyBer
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That's a rather simple way of discrediting something because it's contrary to common perceptions.
Nobody expected Cincinnati to be ranked in 2011, coming off a 4-8 season, but I had them in my top 25. I realize Army seems like the ultimate longshot, but I believe they can hit double-digit wins in 2012 with average luck and their easy schedule.
As for WV and TCU, I see them with four other Big 12 teams being about evenly matched. It's a deep, tough conference. I still see WV as a good team overall. Predicting rankings isn't just about who the best teams are.
Yeah, that's what I do. The smart guys are always the ones who do nothing. It's easier to trash other people's efforts if you haven't tried it yourself.
I was going to jump in and defend the quality of your work, but I see you have a username here. Have fun. :smile:
That's all right. I'll let it go now, as there isn't much point arguing about such things. Only time can tell how accurate I will be.
Hearing that I make things up was quite irritating, however, given the time and effort I've invested in college football analysis over the years.
My father used to say: "It takes a skilled carpenter to build a house, any ******* can knock one down."
Not trying to discredit your work, and it's certainly not because it's not common perception. I'm just saying it's next to impossible to predict. Statistician or not. There are so many factors that can't be taken into account in a formula.
On the contrary, the whole point of generating a formula is to learn which factors actually are important. I'd guess that many of these nebulous "factors" are indistinguishable from random noise. You weed out the ones that make little relative difference and end up with a robust, simple predictive tool. If he earlier got 20/30 right, that's 67% and is good enough to make consistent money in Vegas. It's better prediction than the majority of full-time professionals whose job it is to make similar predictions on college football.
I never gave the so called experts any credit. I never pay any attention to what they have to say either. It's just useless
