Baseball is such a fickle game. I'd like to say that more than 85 games will be needed, but you're probably about spot on. There's no reason to think that teams hovering around the .520/.530 mark all season are going to go on hot streaks all of a sudden.
That being said, the Angels are 14-6 in August and hitting their stride at the right time. Perez is back in KC and made an impact in last night's game against the Rockies. The Royals are a team that could go 3-7 and then rattle off a couple 8-2 weeks in a row.
I keep looking at how we could win the division, but after examining the remaining schedule, I don't see us catching Cleveland. After they finish up this current series with the Red Sox, they don't play anyone with a better record than them for the remainder of the year. They have to go to NY, but the Indians have been hitting really well as of late. Maybe they'll pull a Detroit on us!