2018-2019 computer projections thread

[knowlesjam]

Building on my previous post, here is the Barttovik page for "school history," rankings, and adjusted efficiency ratings on offense and defense since 2008.

View attachment 62007

This is the best team in that era -- #9 overall, with the next best team being Georges' senior year, which was still kind of back of this team at #17 overall in the ratings.

The Hoiberg teams were good, especially on offense, but I think we can see the column for defensive ratings and see where the problems were with them. The analogy that CW made about Fred wanting to be the Texas Tech football of CBB is apropos.

Those Fred teams could score, but they ranked below fiftieth in defensive efficiency. This team can score just as well AND it is in the top thirty in defense nationally.

I know the computer rankings above are missing the good Morgan teams from 2003 through 2005 with Stinson, Blalock, Homan, Clark, Vroman, Sullivan, and the rest of that era, and while those teams had their moments, I do not think anybody would say they were as good as the four Fred teams to make the tournament, much less this season's squad.

We are not a hyper-elite team, dominant on both ends of the floor, like these four...

View attachment 62008

...but we are excellent on offense and very good on defense.

Fred's teams were always the former but never really the latter.

...and close enough to the hyper-elite that a good shooting day puts them within reach.

 

[knowlesjam]

I've been wanting to see THT take it inside for a while now, as he's so creative, and needs to learn to use his body to create his own space. He did that really well yesterday.

He has the ability to get the ball into the net from pretty much anywhere once he gets in the paint...very soft hands and protects the ball with his body as he goes up. I'd have to compare him to Niang as Georges also had that ability.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Do any of these computer rankings systems have a Remaining SOS feature? I'd love to see what that looks like for all the B12 teams.

REMAIN column near to the far-right here...



We have had the eighth most-difficult schedule so far.

We have the eighth most-difficult one remaining.

Kansas is #2 so far and #10 remaining.

 

[ZZZ]

If we are able to get a 4 seed or better come March, are we guaranteed to get placed in Des Moines, 90% chance to get placed there? How does that work?

 

[cyclones500]

If we are able to get a 4 seed or better come March, are we guaranteed to get placed in Des Moines, 90% chance to get placed there? How does that work?

Depends on quite a few factors, I wouldn't be able to summarize the % chance of 4 ISU getting DM at this stage. If KU got sent to Tulsa that would help.

Marquette might be in 3/4 range and could get a slot. I've even seen brackets with Michigan State getting DM, but that's with ISU being 5th seed area.

MSU getting that slot depends on how many teams are in line for Columbus, which is where i'd send Michigan State as a 2-ish seed if I had no additional information.

 

[CyclonePigskin]

What’s the Iowa factor with regard Des Moines if ISU is a #3 or #4 seed at the end of the Big 12 inference tournament? I think I remember that the NCAA tries to keep conference and rival teams out of the same 1st weekend cities. If TOE has a great finish in their conference, could they bump us from Des Moines?

 

[besserheimerphat]

The computer rankings are generally much friendlier to us than human ones. We are #24 in the AP poll yet the computers have us in the #9 or #10 range.

Humans have/had Kansas in the Top 10 yet the computers have them 15-20.

It is all about being good in 1965 with the human voters.

And playing traditional style basketball with a defined point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward and center. The same thing happens in football - when you play a TE attached to the OL, QB under center and TB/FB, the old guys "appreciate" it because they understand it better.

 

[Jacktronic]

What’s the Iowa factor with regard Des Moines if ISU is a #3 or #4 seed at the end of the Big 12 inference tournament? I think I remember that the NCAA tries to keep conference and rival teams out of the same 1st weekend cities. If TOE has a great finish in their conference, could they bump us from Des Moines?

No idea on the NCAA specifics, but no need to worry about that.

 

[acgclone]

What’s the Iowa factor with regard Des Moines if ISU is a #3 or #4 seed at the end of the Big 12 inference tournament? I think I remember that the NCAA tries to keep conference and rival teams out of the same 1st weekend cities. If TOE has a great finish in their conference, could they bump us from Des Moines?

It’s possible. ISU and Iowa are likely competing for one spot in DSM.

 

[AuH2O]

If we end up as a 4 seed in the tourney will people still think this years team is better than the 13-14 and 14-15 teams that got a #3 seed those years?

I would probably give this year's team the nod if they landed a 4 seed. My reasoning is that this year had a higher reliance on new players, and with the suspensions and injuries if they manage a 4 seed, by the time the tourney rolls around this will be the best of the three teams by a narrow margin.

 

[Cyclonepride]

What’s the Iowa factor with regard Des Moines if ISU is a #3 or #4 seed at the end of the Big 12 inference tournament? I think I remember that the NCAA tries to keep conference and rival teams out of the same 1st weekend cities. If TOE has a great finish in their conference, could they bump us from Des Moines?

Iowa will be working on squeaking out an 8 or 9 seed at that point.

 

[gocubs2118]

It’s possible. ISU and Iowa are likely competing for one spot in DSM.

Probably not. We would most likely have to move up to a high 3 in order play in DSM. There are too many good Midwest teams this year.

 

[Sigmapolis]

And playing traditional style basketball with a defined point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward and center. The same thing happens in football - when you play a TE attached to the OL, QB under center and TB/FB, the old guys "appreciate" it because they understand it better.

Now, you see, sonny, lemme tell you about Knute Rockne and the Four Horsemen. You remember them? Those boys would have bowled over a three-man front for 15 yards on every play like clockwork! Aw shucks, I don't like all these passing offenses. It's not how the game is supposed to be played. Remember, when you throw the ball, one of three things can happen, and two of them are bad!

 

[NoCreativity]

What’s the Iowa factor with regard Des Moines if ISU is a #3 or #4 seed at the end of the Big 12 inference tournament? I think I remember that the NCAA tries to keep conference and rival teams out of the same 1st weekend cities. If TOE has a great finish in their conference, could they bump us from Des Moines?

Have you watched them play defense this last week? I would say they have much better odds of being an 8 or 9 seed than worrying about them in Des Moines. They really only have one big resume building game left.

 

[cyclones500]

NET rankings as of Jan. 27

14 Iowa State (15-5)
Home: 9-1
Road: 3-3
Neutral: 3-1

Results vs. NET rank, listed in order of opponents’ rank. (“v.” is neutral court.)

vs. 1-25
W Kansas
L at Kansas
W at Texas Tech

vs. 26-50
L at Iowa
L Kansas State
W at Ole Miss
L at Baylor

vs. 51-75
L v. Arizona
W at Oklahoma State
W Oklahoma State
W Missouri

vs. 76-100
(N/A)

vs. 101-200
W v. Illinois
W v. Drake
W v. San Diego State
W Omaha

vs. 201-300
W Texas Southern
W North Dakota State
W Eastern Illinois

vs. 301 and below
W Alabama State
W Southern

 

[Cyclonepride]

NET rankings as of Jan. 27

14 Iowa State (15-5)
Home: 9-1
Road: 3-3
Neutral: 3-1

Results vs. NET rank, listed in order of opponents’ rank. (“v.” is neutral court.)

vs. 1-25
W Kansas
L at Kansas
W at Texas Tech

vs. 26-50
L at Iowa
L Kansas State
W at Ole Miss
L at Baylor

vs. 51-75
L v. Arizona
W at Oklahoma State
W Oklahoma State
W Missouri

vs. 76-100
(N/A)

vs. 101-200
W v. Illinois
W v. Drake
W v. San Diego State
W Omaha

vs. 201-300
W Texas Southern
W North Dakota State
W Eastern Illinois

vs. 301 and below
W Alabama State
W Southern

Seems like nice balance. It would be nice if Drake continues to climb and gets into the top 100.

 

[HFCS]

He has the ability to get the ball into the net from pretty much anywhere once he gets in the paint...very soft hands and protects the ball with his body as he goes up. I'd have to compare him to Niang as Georges also had that ability.

If he gets to the point where he's as good a set shooter as Georges, look out. That's not even thinking about the defensive potential.

 

[Sigmapolis]

CHANCES OF WINNING THE CONFERENCE BEFORE LAST NIGHT
Oh gosh, here we go again with the stupid Kansas streak.



Kansas chance (outright or shared) = 67.1%
Iowa State chance (only the outright) = 17.8%

* * *​

CHANCES OF WINNING THE CONFERENCE AFTER LAST NIGHT
Kansas lost to Texas! You suck, Kansas!



Kansas chance (outright or shared) = 44.8% (down 22.3%)
Iowa State chance (only the outright) = 20.3% (up 2.5%)

It is there for the taking. Kansas has very little margin for error now. If they go 0-2 against Texas Tech and Kansas State the next two, they are in some real trouble. Even splitting those two games leaves them at the status quo given the computers' projections above.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Update to the conference projections, as well...



Kansas (share or sole) = 43.0% (down 1.8% since last update)
Iowa State (sole only) = 23.4% (up 3.1% since last update)

 

[ComCY]

View attachment 62116

Update to the conference projections, as well...

View attachment 62117

Kansas (share or sole) = 43.0% (down 1.8% since last update)
Iowa State (sole only) = 23.4% (up 3.1% since last update)

#13 team in the country, #1 in B12... but projected 5-seed. Something seems odd there.