2024 Big 12 Championship Game Projections

[Clonehomer]

I don’t know what else you’re going to do when conference schedules don’t let everybody play (almost) everybody else. You get to 14 or more members, you throw away divisions, there’s no way except tiebreakers to find your two “top” teams. I mean, look at the Big XII! You could have a four-way tie where one of the four (Iowa State) hasn’t played any if the other three!

Personally, I don’t know what was so wrong with divisions. I mean, yeah, B1G West highlighted the issues, but even so, if you win the ”stronger” division you proved your worth … and if you didn’t win the division, gee, somebody else already proved they were better than you on the field, what makes you think you get a second chance?

Maybe even top four can be tricky, but at least you’re getting in the ballpark of deserving teams.

Even with divisions you’ll get uneven schedules (old Big12 had uneven schedules). Unless you only count division games, it’s still going to be unfair.

Unless…..grow to 20 team conferences. Play everyone in your division. Division winners play in CCG. Give us back that perfect 10 team conference with still maintaining the mega conference model. The ACC may have to die for this to happen. But that’s a loss I’m willing to deal with.

 

[Hoggins]

So UCF/Utah is the only game that doesn’t impact ISU?

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Even with divisions you’ll get uneven schedules (old Big12 had uneven schedules). Unless you only count division games, it’s still going to be unfair.

Unless…..grow to 20 team conferences. Play everyone in your division. Division winners play in CCG. Give us back that perfect 10 team conference with still maintaining the mega conference model. The ACC may have to die for this to happen. But that’s a loss I’m willing to deal with.

The problem I have is the SEC not playing a ninth game and avoiding a bunch of potential losses. That should f*cking matter!

 

[Cy4Lifer]

The parody or the parity?

I enjoy the party!

 

[jwrussel]

Apologies if someone else has already written this - and it reflects mred, but here is the tiebreaker if all 4 teams win:

4 - team (ASU, BYU, CU, ISU)
Step a (head-to-head) skipped. Teams have not played complete round robin, nor has one team beat all the teams in the tie,
Step b (record against common opponents). If I have analyzed correctly, there are four common opponents between the four teams tied. Kansas, Utah, UCF, and K-State. In those games ASU (4-0), ISU (3-1), BYU (3-1), CU (2-2). ASU wins the tiebreaker.

By rules the process resets for the 3 remaining tied teams. BYU, CU, and ISU
Step a (head-to-head) - again skipped.
Step b (common opponents). There are five Kansas, Utah, UCF, K-State, and Baylor. In those games, BYU (4-1), ISU (4-1), CU (2-2). CU loses the tie-breaker.

At this point there are only two teams left, BYU and ISU.
Step a - skipped no head-to-head
Step b - 6 common opponents, each is 5-1 with the common loss to KU
Step c - since they have the exact same results against the 6 common opponents, this step can be skipped.
Step d (strength of schedule) - cannot be demonstrated without an excel sheet or an algorithm. But I trust others who show ISU wins tiebreaker over BYU here.

Champ game is ASU v ISU. ASU is technically the home team in the neutral game.

 

[clones2005]

The problem I have is the SEC not playing a ninth game and avoiding a bunch of potential losses. That should f*cking matter!

It absolutely should. As yesterday's games for MSU and Bama showed, just because you're the better team doesn't mean you won't stumble against a lesser team, especially on the road. That additional game is huge, vs playing the Citadel or Sam Houston State or whatever cream puff they all play late in the season.

 

[State2015]

Final update of the year:

BYU: 61.3% (16.4% 1st, 44.9% 2nd)
Arizona St: 60.0% (58.7% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 53.2% (21.4% 1st, 31.8% 2nd)
Colorado: 14.4% (2.7% 1st, 11.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 5.8% (0.4% 1st, 5.4% 2nd)
Baylor: 4.7% (0.3% 1st, 4.4% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Arizona St/Iowa St.: 31.3%
Arizona St/BYU: 25.2%
BYU/Iowa St.: 19.7%
BYU/Colorado: 9.5%
BYU/Kansas St.: 3.8%
Baylor/BYU: 3.1%
Arizona St/Colorado: 2.3%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 1.6%

ISU record chances:
9-3: 46.1%
10-2: 53.9%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
9-3: 0.0%
10-2: 98.6%

As I and others have posted here, if ISU wins, they need any one of these to happen to make the championship game:

• BYU to beat Houston (most likely)
• OSU to beat Colorado
• Arizona to beat ASU
• West Virginia to beat Texas Tech
• both Cincinnati to beat TCU and Baylor to beat Kansas

Gonna go make a parlay of all the WRONG outcomes out of that bottom stack. I know it’ll never hit but I’ll be in a dark place if we’re shut out of the champ game due to all that going wrong

 

[CoachHines3]

The good news is BYU had an incentive to win, still, too. So it’s not like they will be “down” for that game with Houston.

 

[ClubCy]

This is not that unlikely other than Houston over BYU, but if BYU isn’t playing to get in do they have as much motivation to win?

Every team every week has motivation to win.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

It doesn’t matter how we got here, doesn’t matter how ugly it’s been for much of the season, doesn’t matter how bad we’ve played in so many games, doesn’t matter how easy the schedule was… we found a way to win and now have an opportunity in front of us.

Go back to the thread early in the season “how good is this team”? Im still not sure, but what I do know is bad teams find a way to lose games, and good teams find a way to win them. We’ve found a way to win this year a lot.

Let’s find a way to win one more time against KSU and see what happens the rest of the season.

Looks to me like the big 12 champ is destined for that 12 seed in the CFP, that’s a tough spot. We may be a 20 point dog in that road game if we make it, but I want to be there regardless.

Go cyclones.

I think the Big 12 team gets the 4 seed eventually. Especially if its us and especially especially if its ASU.

That 12 seed is destined to go to Ohio State or Penn State I think. Ohio State fans are the absolute worst and it would suck so much.

 

[stateofmind]

If you’ve paid attention at all, there’s absolutely no way we’re getting two teams in. Zero

It seems more likely to get 0 in vs 2.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

Every team every week has motivation to win.

Tell that to Florida State

 

[KidSilverhair]

Even with divisions you’ll get uneven schedules (old Big12 had uneven schedules). Unless you only count division games, it’s still going to be unfair.

Unless…..grow to 20 team conferences. Play everyone in your division. Division winners play in CCG. Give us back that perfect 10 team conference with still maintaining the mega conference model. The ACC may have to die for this to happen. But that’s a loss I’m willing to deal with.

I could get behind this - even though this is essentially two separate conferences in a trench coat.

 

[dahliaclone]

I’m sure this has been asked and discussed at length but driving and can’t search. Tell me why it’s asu vs isu if the four teams are all the same record. Tell me like I’m 5.

 

[cloneatlaw]

I’m sure this has been asked and discussed at length but driving and can’t search. Tell me why it’s asu vs isu if the four teams are all the same record. Tell me like I’m 5.

Big man football guys do math things, says "hooray sun devils and cyclones."
No five year old is going to follow the 18 steps involved in the conference tiebreaker rules.

 

[2speedy1]

It seems more likely to get 0 in vs 2.

Looking at the rankings and things today. (yes I know not the official Playoff rankings, but the rankings have almost been identical so far)

It feels like if ASU and ISU win next weekend and end up in the CC, they would go into that game ranked something like: ASU 10-12th, and ISU 13-15th. With BYU and CU making the game in place of ASU/ISU being ranked around 15-20th.

With that scenario, it feels like at best the winner of the CC being ranked around 10th, and the loser around 15th. I see few if any ways where the loser of the B12 CC is still ranked in the top 12. The real issue is what if say BYU and CU make it, and CU wins, is there any way they move CU all the way to the top 12? Or does someone like Tulane take the 5th auto bid spot, and the b12 is left out.

There is a very real possibility that the B12 is not the 4th or even 5th highest ranked champion.

 

[mred]

I’m sure this has been asked and discussed at length but driving and can’t search. Tell me why it’s asu vs isu if the four teams are all the same record. Tell me like I’m 5.

No five-year-old is going to understand this, but I'll make it as simple as possible while keeping it complete.

ASU, BYU, ISU, and CU did not all play each other, so we skip head-to-head stuff.

They all have four opponents in common: KSU, UCF, Utah, Kansas. ASU swept all four while the others had at least one loss, giving ASU the first spot in the CCG.

Starting over with the other three teams: BYU, ISU, and CU did not all play each other, so we still skip h2h.

They all have five opponents in common -- the above four plus Baylor. ISU and BYU went 4-1 against those 5 while Colorado was 3-2, so CU drops out and the tiebreaker for the second CCG spot is between ISU and BYU, who move to the 2-team tiebreaker.

BYU and ISU didn't play each other. They each lost to a common opponent (Kansas) and someone the other team didn't play (Texas Tech, ASU), so none of the common opponent tiebreakers will accomplish anything. So the next tiebreaker is conference opponent win percentage in conference games. ISU's conference opponents have a better record than BYU's, so ISU gets the second CCG spot.

 

[Cyhig]

From ESPN article about games this week

“UConn has a chance to stake its claim as America's top team by running through a strong Maui Invitational field -- though North Carolinaand Auburn stand in its way, and could even change that conversation by defeating the Huskies.”

Yeah - let’s just ignore a team ranked #5 in this field altogether.

 

[abcguyks]

From ESPN article about games this week

“UConn has a chance to stake its claim as America's top team by running through a strong Maui Invitational field -- though North Carolinaand Auburn stand in its way, and could even change that conversation by defeating the Huskies.”

Yeah - let’s just ignore a team ranked #5 in this field altogether.

It's ESPN (East coast SPorts Network)- what do you expect?

 

[werdnamanhill]

Final update of the year:

BYU: 61.3% (16.4% 1st, 44.9% 2nd)
Arizona St: 60.0% (58.7% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 53.2% (21.4% 1st, 31.8% 2nd)
Colorado: 14.4% (2.7% 1st, 11.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 5.8% (0.4% 1st, 5.4% 2nd)
Baylor: 4.7% (0.3% 1st, 4.4% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.3% (0.0% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)

Most likely matchups:
Arizona St/Iowa St.: 31.3%
Arizona St/BYU: 25.2%
BYU/Iowa St.: 19.7%
BYU/Colorado: 9.5%
BYU/Kansas St.: 3.8%
Baylor/BYU: 3.1%
Arizona St/Colorado: 2.3%
Colorado/Iowa St.: 1.6%

ISU record chances:
9-3: 46.1%
10-2: 53.9%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
9-3: 0.0%
10-2: 98.6%

As I and others have posted here, if ISU wins, they need any one of these to happen to make the championship game:

• BYU to beat Houston (most likely)
• OSU to beat Colorado
• Arizona to beat ASU
• West Virginia to beat Texas Tech
• both Cincinnati to beat TCU and Baylor to beat Kansas

So you are saying the emotional hedge is:

KSU moneyline and a parlay of the following moneylines:

Houston
Colorado
Arizona State
Texas Tech
TCU
Kansas