The Vikings have 1 good WR (JJ). The rest of the team is one big giant hole.
***2024 Minnesota Vikings***
- Thread starter Marcelason78
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Gross all over. And I could not be less excited for JJ McCarthy, frankly Ill be angry. But hopefully that means its good for the Vikings and I get to learn to like it.
A lot of recent mocks have him early 2nd round at this point. Ironically, one question is his timing and ability on quick routes. Nobody doubts his deep ball. Injury is the other primary concern.
I think he's probably got as much potential as most of the Top 5 QBs, but he's also got a few risks... but they all do really.
I see JJ as more Purdy-like. He's not going to wow you with athleticism (though he's fairly mobile/shifty) but he's a great game manager. Doesn't turn it over, makes good reads, and plays with a high FB IQ. He's also the most unproven from a high-pressure, QB heavy system given MI was rush-heavy.
I think 10 years ago he'd be a late 1st round, early 2nd round pick. But this year it's very possible 4 of the top 5 picks are QBs and that moves him up quite a bit.
Scouts apparently loved what they saw during workouts with quick, sharp passes and good reads.
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Addison and Hock are a giant hole? The offensive tackles are giant holes?
This is what is interesting about the NFL draft. When I watched Michigan my take was almost the opposite. Impressive athleticism, could make some plays outside the pocket and throws on the run, but if his primary read wasn't there he made some dumb throws and decisions. So when they beat PSU and did not attempt a pass in the entire second half, it made sense to me and spoke volumes. And it wasn't because they were dominating. It was 3rd and goal from the 10, 3rd and 6, 3rd and 10.
Bill Barnwell has a great article on ESPN where he breaks down the QB drafts over the years. He theorizes that teams feel that with the slotted contracts for rookies it makes the most economical sense to try and swing for the fences on QBs in the first round.
When you compare rookie salaries with average veteran salaries by position there's the largest discrepancy at QB. He says if teams think there's a 20% chance a QB will be a quality starter, it's worth the risk. He compared that to RB, where teams would have to feel there's an 80% chance for a RB to be a starter to make it worthwhile.
If a team can hit on a rookie QB in the draft, they're saving themselves a crapton of money for 4-5 years that they can spend at other positions.
So if they Vikes use their two 1st rounders this year and maybe next year's 3rd rounder to move up, I'm all for it. If they have to use next year's 1st, that may be too much for me.
But the Vikes may see it as when will the QB talent pool be this good again and will they have enough ammo in the future to move up (unless they tank)? Probably not next year (QB pool looks pretty bad), which means they'll be 2 years behind.
It’s going to be either JJ or Maye. I’d rather have Maye. If the Vikings can get that 3rd pick I think they draft Maye if he’s there.
I just don’t want them overpaying to move up for JJ or Maye. Vikes need lots of help everywhere. Stay at 11 and 23 and see what happens
I'd say it depends on the QB. If they think McCarthy has a 25% chance and Penix has a 20% chance, I'd stand pat and grab Penix at 11. If they have a massive gap between the Top 4 and Penix, then moving up is probably fine.
If it takes next year's first rounder, I'd probably stand pat again. Try Penix at 11 and see what you have. Could always take another shot next year at a QB.
If they move up, I hope its not for Maye. I think he has too much bust potential. I'd take Daniels (if available) or McCarthy.
Mock drafts are meaningless and this one is really meaningless. Why put together a mock draft and then give yourself a C- grade on it?
Yeah, you're right, it really does depend on how they have the QBs ranked or grouped.
Grabbing Penix at 11 scares me, shades of the Ponder pick. I would rather take him at 23, but I don't think he makes it to 23. Sounds like his stock is rising.
Maye kind of feels like Will Levis and seems like he might slide outside the top 10 picks.
McCarthy seems to just keep rising. Then you have Spielman coming out and saying the Vikes are going to trade up and overpay to draft him. Just seems weird that he would be that specific. Does he know something or is he being used to throw people off what the Vikes really want to do?
You just don't know what to believe right now. Lots of good old subterfuge flying around.
Drafting a QB is such a crap shoot but man is it fun having the Vikes involved in that conversation.
Why the comparison to Ponder? Penix has better college stats, passed a LOT more than Ponder, more accurate. Comparing Ponder's last 2 seasons to Penix's, Ponder threw 1 interception every 41 attempts. Penix threw 1 interception every 58 attemps. Penix's Yards per attempt and Air Yard's per attempt were much higher than Ponder's.
Harbaugh has the #5 pick and would love to trade down and get draft capital. Even if the Vikings don't trade up, making other teams think they will might induce others to trade up. Plus McCarthy is his guy, so pumping him up makes sense.
I think he has bust written all over him, so he'll probably be a superstar. I'm no good at assessing NFL talent, although I did think Randy Moss was the best player in that draft and Daunte Culpepper was the best QB available in that draft.
In regards to Penix/Ponder, I wasn't referring to statistics or the types of QBs they are, I was talking about their draft rankings and where they would be drafted. Both are/were not considered top 4 QBs, but in the 5-6 range. And when the process started, both were not considered 1st round picks.
The Vikings reached for Ponder at 12 and I think drafting Penix at 11 would be a reach. Granted, it sounds like Penix is moving up the board, but Ponder actually graded higher than Penix...so again, to take him at 11 just scares me.
I admit I've haven't researched any of these guys in depth, but I've always had the perception of Penix as a one read or run QB. Those guys generally don't do well in the NFL.
The ranking in their draft class is meaningless. If it did, you'd consider Jeff Lewis a similar QB prospect to Ben Roethlisberger.
Ponder was the 4th QB picked, but there was really only 1 high end QB in that draft. Cam Newton. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert weren't blowing people away. The next QBs taken were Andy Dalton and Kaepernick in Rd 2.
The consensus in this draft is that there is a LOT of QB depth. Just because he might be the fifth best prospect QB doesn't mean he'd be the fifth best QB in each draft.
Now, most analysts thing there is a drop after the Top 4, so you might be right on Penix at 11 as a reach. But I think he is better than that. Its also not just a decision of Penix versus McCarthy or Maye. It's Penix+23rd pick+first rounder next year. You'd better be damn sure McCarthy or Maye is head and shoulders ahead of Penix before making that trade.
And maybe if you don't love Maye or McCarthy enough to move up, you just risk that the drop to 11th. Or risk that Penix drops to 23rd. See how the QB market plays out. If the Bronco's move up for a QB, maybe you can trade down from 11 and get more draft capital.
That said, if they trade away the farm to move up, I'll hope on the hype train for whatever QB they get. Even if he's a bust, I'd rather get excited until he's proven a bust than be miserable assuming he will be a bust.
