2025 Bracketologies

[dahliaclone]

Lunardi update this morning has us as a 1 seed, still.

Way-Too-Early men's Bracketology: Defending champion Florida returns to the top line

Florida benefited from the transfer portal -- and some key NBA draft withdrawals -- to get to the top line.

www.espn.com

It's all gonna shake out how it's supposed to. We pulled out a huge nailbiter in Lubbock. Lucky shot last night and we end up losing. Yes the SEC is fantastic but sans Auburn the rest of them are gonna beat up on each other a bit more. I still think those in line for a #1 seed are 7 teams. More can work their way in or out of that list but to me, these seven are in a different tier than others. Again, for now.

Auburn
Duke
Iowa State
Houston
Florida
Tennessee
Alabama

 

[ClonesFTW]

Root against Tennessee and Florida for the next 45 days.

 

[dahliaclone]

Root against Tennessee and Florida for the next 45 days.

and Alabama

 

[CoachHines3]

It's all gonna shake out how it's supposed to. We pulled out a huge nailbiter in Lubbock. Lucky shot last night and we end up losing. Yes the SEC is fantastic but sans Auburn the rest of them are gonna beat up on each other a bit more. I still think those in line for a #1 seed are 7 teams. More can work their way in or out of that list but to me, these seven are in a different tier than others. Again, for now.

Auburn
Duke
Iowa State
Houston
Florida
Tennessee
Alabama

Yeah, those 7 teams for the 4 spots seem good to me.

Root against Tennessee and Florida for the next 45 days.

and Alabama

These guys will start to eat each other and it'll be up to the committee to determine how they treat that.

Bama and Tennesee have gauntlets coming up

 

[cyatheart]

I just don't see how we are going to get that 1 seed unless we can win at Houston, or beat them in KC which people don't even seem to count anymore. Going to have to beat them to really have a chance IMO. If Houston wins the Big 12, and beats us in doing so, you can't give us the number 1 seed.

Yes the SEC teams will beat each other up, but right or wrong they aren't going to drop in the rankings in doing so most likely. Getting a one seed is really hard, while WV isn't a bad loss by any means, it's a bad loss compared to anything Houston or Auburn will end up having most likely. It's not like WV has been unbeatable at home. Arizona killed them, ASU went in there and won pretty handily too.

Hope I am wrong and we just run the table, but just seems like it's a really uphill fight.

 

[CycloneCJ]

I just don't see how we are going to get that 1 seed unless we can win at Houston, or beat them in KC which people don't even seem to count anymore. Going to have to beat them to really have a chance IMO. If Houston wins the Big 12, and beats us in doing so, you can't give us the number 1 seed.

Agree 100%. If Houston wins the conference they'll get a #1 and I don't see any way the committee will give the Big 12 two #1 seeds. Last year we were thinking ISU could get a #1 and we ended up being the last #2 seed if I remember correctly.

Edit: To be clear I could see Big 12 getting two #1's if ISU won the conference and the other team was someone like Kansas. Just don't see it for ISU based on history.

 

[CoachHines3]

I would say that Auburn (#1 NET) and Duke (#3 NET) are probably as close to a lock to a 1 seed you can currently be.

That leaves:
Houston (#2 NET)
Tennessee (#4 NET)
Florida (#5 NET)
Iowa State (#6 NET)
Alabama (#7 NET)

Houston needs more Q1 wins, IMO. They will have opportunities (Currently 9 Q1 games remaining)

Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, and Auburn all have a gauntlet of a schedule left. According to ESPN'S BPI the remaining SOS of these schools:
Alabama - 1st
Auburn - 7th
Florida - 18th
Tennessee - 19th
Houston - 22nd
Iowa State - 53rd
Duke - 61st


It hasn't been announced yet, but last year the NCAA Selection Committee announced the top 16 seeds on February 17th. This year, it could be the 15th (Saturday)

 

[Cy4Lifer]

Agree 100%. If Houston wins the conference they'll get a #1 and I don't see any way the committee will give the Big 12 two #1 seeds. Last year we were thinking ISU could get a #1 and we ended up being the last #2 seed if I remember correctly.

Edit: To be clear I could see Big 12 getting two #1's if ISU won the conference and the other team was someone like Kansas. Just don't see it for ISU based on history.

Houston still has some tough games remaining.

@ Tech
@ Arizona
@ WV
And of course, hosting us!

 

[CascadeClone]

No chance I’m rooting for Iowa.

Agree. If they win a game, ok fine its minimally marginally good for ISU's seed.

If they lose a game, that's still better.

They will continue to suck, but win just enough to keep Fran around. That's better still.

 

[CoachHines3]

No chance I’m rooting for Iowa.

I’m kinda like whatever when it comes to Q1 right now, things will shake out. Why is no one talking about how Duke has very few opps left for Q1 wins?

3 remaining, currently.

But the issue is, IMO, that they have already built up their narrative of being one of the best, they have cooper flagg, blah blah blah. They won't go backwards in seeding at this point unless they lose a couple, which is possible.

They will pick up Q1 games in the conf tourney, im sure.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I just don't see how we are going to get that 1 seed unless we can win at Houston, or beat them in KC which people don't even seem to count anymore. Going to have to beat them to really have a chance IMO. If Houston wins the Big 12, and beats us in doing so, you can't give us the number 1 seed.

Yes the SEC teams will beat each other up, but right or wrong they aren't going to drop in the rankings in doing so most likely. Getting a one seed is really hard, while WV isn't a bad loss by any means, it's a bad loss compared to anything Houston or Auburn will end up having most likely. It's not like WV has been unbeatable at home. Arizona killed them, ASU went in there and won pretty handily too.

Hope I am wrong and we just run the table, but just seems like it's a really uphill fight.

What happens in KC won't matter, the committee made that clear last year.

 

[qwerty]

Barring radical changes (collapses): I see the #1 and #2 seeds as:

Three teams probably locks for #1: Auburn, Duke, Houston
Three teams battling for last #1-top #2: Iowa State, Tennessee, Florida
Three teams battling for last two #2 seeds: Kansas, Purdue, Alabama

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

With unbalanced schedules I wouldn't put a ton of stock in the conference title. Yes, I would love to see it happen but there are scenarios out there where we finish behind Houston and still get seeded over them in the tournament.

 

[CoachHines3]

What happens in KC won't matter, the committee made that clear last year.

Yeah, for the most part.

On February 16th last year when they released the initial Top 16 we were 11th overall ( 3rd 3 seed.)

From that initial ranking to the end of the conf tourney, we had 2 losses (@ Houston and @ KState) and we won the conf tourney and ONLY moved from 11th overall to 8th overall.

I'd have to go dig but maybe some of that was because of what other teams did. I don't know.

 

[CoachHines3]

With unbalanced schedules I wouldn't put a ton of stock in the conference title. Yes, I would love to see it happen but there are scenarios out there where we finish behind Houston and still get seeded over them in the tournament.

Agree 100%.. regular season conf titles won't mean what they used to. There is no way they can. Back in the true round robin days? Sure.

That's why I don't care about regular season conf titles anymore. I know it shows your "total body of work" but the unbalanced schedules are a big deal.

All about seeding for me. I know there isn't much difference between a 1 and a 2 but there is a difference in 8th overall seed vs. 1st overall seed.

 

[JM4CY]

Duke is Duke. They will be treated like the SEC schools in football. Anyone expecting otherwise is foolish.

 

[VeloClone]

Cyclone fans don't want to hear this but it is time to start rooting for Iowa. We need all the quad 1 victories we can get if we want a 1 seed.

I'll content myself with rooting for Colorado to win a few games since by the end of the reg season ISU will have played them 3 times. If they could improve their NET just a few spots it could move a Q3 to a Q2b (neutral site) and a Q2b to a Q2a (road). I'm afraid there isn't much hope for the home game since I doubt CU will get up to 75th in the NET to get out of Q3 territory.

 

[ClubCy]

Duke is Duke. They will be treated like the SEC schools in football. Anyone expecting otherwise is foolish.

I get what you mean but….is Dukes resume all that different than ours?

You could argue ours is slightly better? We have people acting like they haven’t beaten a single team with a pulse this year.

 

[JM4CY]

I get what you mean but….is Dukes resume all that different than ours?

You could argue ours is slightly better? We have people acting like they haven’t beaten a single team with a pulse this year.

My point is that what you said really doesn't even matter if it is true. If Duke is involved in a mash of teams that are similar in any way, they will be ones put on top. Regardless of any other variables/records/etc.

 

[CoachHines3]

From The Athletics bracketology yesterday:

The closest thing to a No. 1 seed lock at this point is Duke. The Cooper Flagg-led Blue Devils have loaded up their list of achievements and aren’t vulnerable to many setbacks in the ACC — all due respect to the best rivalry in men’s basketball and with a nod to the scares Wake Forest and NC State just put into them.

Auburn does seem like a safe bet at this point, a team with one loss — in a terrific game at Duke — and 11 Quad 1 wins, which leads the nation by a significant margin. Muscling past Tennessee on Saturday was enormous. Johni Broome returned to the lineup and battled through a tender left ankle that left him much less explosive than usual. The Tigers’ shooting touch deserted them. Still, they found a way in Neville Arena.

They can absorb some losses in the SEC — prime possibilities include visits to Kentucky, Texas A&M and Ole Miss plus a home-and-home against rival Alabama — and stay solid as a No. 1 seed. Barring an unforeseen string of defeats, the best question might end up something like: four-loss Auburn with many more quality wins or two-loss Duke, which beat Auburn at home, for the No. 1 overall seed?

Iowa State should be in good shape, too, though that’s a bit more tenuous — trips to Kansas and Houston remain on the Cyclones’ schedule. They were missing injured wing Milan Momcilovic, a key offensive piece, in their last two losses, at West Virginia and Monday’s overtime thriller at Arizona. He’s had hand surgery and won’t be back until late February at the earliest. That’s a consideration for the committee, of course, if Iowa State runs into more trouble than expected.

The fourth No. 1 seed is up for grabs. Alabama has it in this week’s bracket. Nate Oats’ team has a win over Houston to go with SEC road beauties over Kentucky and Texas A&M. But Oats benching Mark Sears for the second half of Saturday’s win over LSU is a development worth watching. The defense has come and gone a bit too much. And the SEC … it’s an opportunity-rich environment, but that also means opportunities for extended tailspins.