4th & Short Analysis

[cayin]

I wanted to go back and objectively see what we've been doing on 4th downs where the QB sneak was a legitimate options this year. I went through the play-by-play for all 11 games so far this season and looked at every 4th down where the distance to convert was 3 yards or less. There were several 4th Downs with 4 to 6 yards to go that we attempted, but since those are too far for a QB sneak I didn't include them. I threw out everything where we punted or attempted a FG. That left 15 plays on the season. Two of those were penalties, which I threw out:

• Texas: Q1 on our own 30, 4th & 1, Delay of Game - probably did it for field position on a punt, but don't know for sure just from play-by-play
• Texas: Q2 on our own 37, 4th & 2, False Start - obviously intended to go for it

We also had two 4th & Shorts against non-con opponents, which I also threw out due to an assumed talent difference making a big impact. Both were passes out of the shotgun and converted FWIW.

So that left 11 4th & Short plays, in conference, that either converted or failed:

• Baylor, Q1 on their 2, 4th & Goal: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• Kansas, Q4 on their 49, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Silas)
• Texas, Q4 on our 33, 4th & 2: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• OU, Q1 on our 47, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Norton)
• OU, Q4 on their 20, 4th & 3: Shotgun Pass that Converted
• OU, Q4 on their 3, 4th & 1: Shotgun Pass that Failed
• WVU, Q3 on their 23, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Converted (Dekkers)
• OSU, Q4 on our 25, 4th & 1: Shotgun Rush that Failed (Dekkers)
• TTech, Q3 on their 2, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Failed (Silas)
• Ttech, Q3 on their 2, 4th & Goal: Shotgun Pass that Failed (Dekkers sack)
• Ttech, Q4 on their 28, 4th & 1: Under Center Rush that Converted (Dekkers)

I didn't figure there'd be enough samples to say anything about effectiveness, but I ran a Chi-Sq anyway. We never went Under Center and Passed the ball, but when we Passed out of Shotgun we converted 3 of 5 attempts (60%). However when we Rushed, we were 0 for 3 out of Shotgun (0%) and 2 for 3 from Under Center (67%). Even with only 3 samples of each that's enough to say there is a statistically significant difference at the 90% Significance Level.

One other thing that stuck out at me, though I didn't record it, was the number of times we called a timeout on 4th & Short. I'd guess about half the time we went for it and half the time we didn't. But to me that indicates we're not sure what we want to do as the game goes along. We should be thinking about how we'll approach 4th down as we line up on 3rd down, and then depending on the result it's a "simple" go/no-go. If we're calling timeouts a lot on our own 4th down plays, then we're not thinking far enough ahead IMO. Many times we'd call a timeout on 4th down and just end up punting or kicking a FG anyway. That feels like a wasted timeout.

Our short yardage offense in general. it's not just 4th down and short that is the perceived issue. it's 3rd and short too.

 

[CyBobby]

The Texas Tech goal line fiasco this past weekend really showed just how amazingly stubborn Campbell is. To not only fail, but to continue to do it, is just asinine. Absolutely inexcusable play calling and the best part was he was somehow okay with it after the game! I get he has been a great coach for us, but there are some very disturbing trends with him that if he doesn’t figure out soon will see his rear end on the streets.

This reminds me so much of the Earle Bruce era of 24 Wins in Three Years and then he goes to Ohio State and the ROOF CAVES IN ON DONNIE DUNCAN...

Coach Campbell would have been better off career wise to leave after last year knowing full well that this season was going to be a Freakin' DISASTER!!

 

[Hammerschlagen]

You can blame the play calls if you want. I don't care.

But our offense is simply incapable of being physical. We rush for about 100 yards per game. We don't have very good running backs, our TE are not physical and our OL doesn't open up holes.

After watching us throw in the red zone and short yardage time and time again in the Kansas game it became clear to me that Manning and Campbell knew this. We simply had to throw the ball to gain yards.

 

[madguy30]

If we insist on being in shotgun with a yard to go, why not bootleg and play to strength? Or even a trap play.

I don’t think even grandpa Ferentz is as stubborn as Campbell and that’s saying something. He’s playing a “f you, I’m going to run the same play until the players succeed” game but it comes off feeling like a “f you, pay me, I don’t care” game. It’s worn right now. It’ll turn into boos next year if it doesn’t change…don’t care how ma and pa, salt of the eart a fan base is.

I keep saying it; Dekkers isn't shifty but he's pretty fast over a distance and I have confidence in his ability to win a race to the marker.

This would also apply to the goal line possessions.

 

[quasistellar]

I don't think our offense counts player advantages like other systems do. Otherwise that should be an automatic call from Dekkers. I mean it's typically coached as such. That's kind of the point of shifting the players. To get people confused and catch them out of position. It's baffling.

That play right there told me all I need to know about the offensive coaching staff.