Big 12 Expansion - Looking at Numbers

[cyclonemagic]

UCF and USF probably have the greatest growth potential of any of the realistic candidates. The schools are huge and have a ton of alumni. Attendance is growing and trending towards Big 12 levels. Their markets and the state of Florida overall are growing.

It’s happened before in Florida where a team came out of nowhere to be a power. Florida State and Miami were at about the same level as USF and UCF until the 80s.

UCF and USF are involving from their "commuter college" images. This will make those schools more desirable in the years ahead.

 

[isucy86]

Those are the fascinating parts of the equation. Passionate fans will probably fork over the $45. The casual observer, not so much. That would indicate that we are reaching a peak in terms of what networks are willing to pay.

But if someone like Amazon comes in and technology evolves to the point where relevant ads can be served on an individual basis, not only is the sky the limit, but traditional networks will be toast.

Yes it's an interesting business model. Amazon Prime and video programing is same as Google, Facebook, etc for potential advertising revenue.

Even in advertising free programing Amazon can add links/banners at bottom of screen.

 

[AppleCornCy]

UCF and USF are involving from their "commuter college" images. This will make those schools more desirable in the years ahead.

I know the US News rankings are kind of bogus, but they’re the numbers cited most often and I was surprised to see USF ranked ahead of ISU and Kansas. UCF was better than I expected too.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Yes it's an interesting business model. Amazon Prime and video programing is same as Google, Facebook, etc for potential advertising revenue.

Even in advertising free programing Amazon can add links/banners at bottom of screen.

The key difference there would be the advertising as direct links to their own products. Others have to sell those ad slots, and judging by the nature scenes on my YouTube TV screen every other would-be commercial, that's harder than it looks. Huge advantage to Amazon in this regard.

 

[qwerty]

Thanks for the TV market information. That was interesting. I saw an interesting analysis of Big 12 TV viewership posted on another board.

Big 12 Viewship

This points to the eyeballs on the games rather than fans attending the games. There was no information given as to the source of the report or the year being analyzed. It appears to be 2020 because there are zero views for some games which probably were canceled due to Covid. If that is the case, it would be interesting to see how things look in a normal year.

The obvious take away from that is look at the broadcast source. If your game is on network (FOX/ABC) the game is automatically at 1.3+ million (even KU/WVU). When you get relegated to FS1, you struggle to get over 300k+. And of course, 7 of 8 OU and Tex games were on ABC/FOX (8th was on ESPN, not a lesser channel). Put 7 ISU games on ABC/FOX and OU/Tex on FS1 and let's see how the numbers play out.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

This x100

I've said this in numerous posts but Navy has the #1TV ratings in the AAC and it isn't close.

2019 Army/Navy - 7mil viewers
Navy/ND every year

Heck Navy has better TV ratings than 2/3 of PAC and half the BIG..

Army also has pretty solid TV ratings as well..

The Army/Navy game is the only game on TV that day, the networks a few years ago decided to set this game apart from the rest and set the schedules to ensure that no other team is playing on that date.

Put that game on a normal Saturday and its ratings drop to less than a million.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The Army/Navy game is the only game on TV that day, the networks a few years ago decided to set this game apart from the rest and set the schedules to ensure that no other team is playing on that date.

Put that game on a normal Saturday and its ratings drop to less than a million.

Who cares? Army-Navy will always be on its own special weekend, so it will always get incredibly high viewership, and it’ll be worth lots of money accordingly.

Navy is not a bad football-only option if the conference was looking that way but I assume they would want to grab 2-4 full members and call it good. Football-only members screams small time/G5 to me.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

UCF and USF are involving from their "commuter college" images. This will make those schools more desirable in the years ahead.

South Florida spent 8 years in a BCS conference (Big East) before it imploded. UCF has since surpassed them, but we could do a lot worse than adding those 2 plus a couple more like Cincy and Memphis/Houston/BYU.

 

[Tornado man]

South Florida spent 8 years in a BCS conference (Big East) before it imploded. UCF has since surpassed them, but we could do a lot worse than adding those 2 plus a couple more like Cincy and Memphis/Houston/BYU.

Yes we could. This plan is realistic, for one, and poised for growth in the future.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

Thanks for the TV market information. That was interesting. I saw an interesting analysis of Big 12 TV viewership posted on another board.

Big 12 Viewship

This points to the eyeballs on the games rather than fans attending the games. There was no information given as to the source of the report or the year being analyzed. It appears to be 2020 because there are zero views for some games which probably were canceled due to Covid. If that is the case, it would be interesting to see how things look in a normal year.

ISU looks reasonably good in comparison to the other little 8 schools. OSU looks especially good even when compared to OU and TX. KU is the worst but there is no data for two games that may have been canceled. The viewership probably reflects how good the particular teams are doing and how interesting the in-conference rivalries are. For instance, the OSU / OU bedlam rivalry is huge. The ISU / Iowa game is not even reflected along with any of the non-conference games for any team. So, that could change the result somewhat. It would be interesting to see how this analysis would look for men's and women's basketball

Interesting. Clearly, channel (and secondarily time) have a huge impact on viewership. This clearly benefits OU and TU, since they get the best spots. I’ve seen analysis without OU and UT, but I need to look at this closer. I am curious how everyone looks without OU or UT and on over the air network.

 

[cyclonemagic]

All this makes me wonder...what happens to wrestling, tennis, golf, women's basketball, and other men's and women's Olympic sports if we re-make the Big 12 conference and invite other schools to join. Not all new schools may have those programs. And, we may not be able to financially maintain those sports.

Also, how will Tier 3 media rights be handled? Does each school keep its own Tier 3 funding? KU would be at a big advantage if they get to keep their proceeds.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

The obvious take away from that is look at the broadcast source. If your game is on network (FOX/ABC) the game is automatically at 1.3+ million (even KU/WVU). When you get relegated to FS1, you struggle to get over 300k+. And of course, 7 of 8 OU and Tex games were on ABC/FOX (8th was on ESPN, not a lesser channel). Put 7 ISU games on ABC/FOX and OU/Tex on FS1 and let's see how the numbers play out.

Thank you! That is what I was assuming, that the difference just isn’t as great as it is being portrayed. The problem is they are prioritizing their inventory in a limited number of channels/times.

 

[AppleCornCy]

You are up early. Good stuff. Can we see the same data vs the BIG.

The Golden era of ISU athletics is (fast) fading,

I am still trying to find something positive in all this. Ames is about half way between BYU and USF.

I’ll do the Big Ten and Pac-12 for attendance and US News rankings.

Big Ten and remaining Big 12 schools

Attendance:
Michigan 110,884 (1)
Ohio State 105,465 (2)
Penn State 103,585 (3)
Nebraska 89,676 (10)
Wisconsin 77,964 (16)
Michigan State 72,443 (18)
Iowa 66,547 (21)
Iowa State 56,562 (30)
West Virginia 56,484 (31)
Texas Tech 55,821 (33)
Oklahoma State 55,326 (36)
Kansas State 50,975 (38)
Purdue 44,997 (46)
Minnesota 44,926 (47)
Baylor 44,536 (48)
TCU 44,353 (49)
Indiana 42,701 (53)
Rutgers 50,031 (55)
Illinois 39,831 (56)
Maryland 39,001 (57)
Northwestern 37,125 (60)
Kansas 26,610 (80)

University Rankings:
Northwestern #9
Michigan #24
Wisconsin #42
Illinois #47
Ohio State #53
Purdue #53
Maryland #58
Penn State #63
Rutgers #63
Minnesota #66
Baylor #76
Indiana #76
Michigan State #80
TCU #80
Iowa #88
Iowa State #118
Kansas #124
Nebraska #133
Kansas State #170
Oklahoma State #187
Texas Tech #217
West Virginia #241

The bulk of the Big 12 schools would be middle of the pack in attendance. All of the Big 12 schools would be on the low end for US News rankings.

Pac-12 and the remaining Big 12 schools

Attendance:
Washington 66,527 (20)
USC 66,261 (22)
UCLA 57,075 (27)
Iowa State 56,562 (30)
West Virginia 56,484 (31)
Texas Tech 55,821 (33)
Oregon 55,509 (35)
Oklahoma State 55,326 (36)
Kansas State 50,975 (38)
Arizona State 49,902 (40)
Utah 46,349 (43)
Colorado 45,687 (44)
Arizona 45,456 (45)
Baylor 44,536 (48)
TCU 44,353 (49)
California 43,457 (50)
Stanford 43,263 (51)
Oregon State 35,218 (63)
Washington State 30,339 (73)
Kansas 26,610 (80)

University Rankings:
Stanford #6
UCLA #20
California #22
USC #24
Washington #58
Baylor #76
TCU #80
Arizona #97
Utah #97
Arizona State #103
Colorado #103
Oregon #103
Iowa State #118
Kansas #124
Oregon State #153
Kansas State #170
Washington State #176
Oklahoma State #187
Texas Tech #217
West Virginia #241

The remaining Big 12 schools would be in the upper half of the Pac-12 in attendance. The bulk of the Big 12 schools would be on the lower end of the US News rankings. Interestingly, the two schools that would fit the Pac-12’s academic profile the best are the two religious schools.

 

[RedBlooded]

What are the odds that A&M would be so pissed at Texas that they would come back to the big12

 

[qwerty]

What are the odds that A&M would be so pissed at Texas that they would come back to the big12

about 0.000001% approximately

 

[G-Rock]

All this makes me wonder...what happens to wrestling, tennis, golf, women's basketball, and other men's and women's Olympic sports if we re-make the Big 12 conference and invite other schools to join. Not all new schools may have those programs. And, we may not be able to financially maintain those sports.

Also, how will Tier 3 media rights be handled? Does each school keep its own Tier 3 funding? KU would be at a big advantage if they get to keep their proceeds.

IIRC, ISU has 18 varsity programs and the NCAA D1 minimum is 16.

 

[RedBlooded]

about 0.000001% approximately

I'm not so sure about that.

 

[RustShack]

Not going to happen,

But let’s just go get-

Notre Dame
BYU
Army
Air Force
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF
Houston

Thing ring up Bezos for a deal with Amazon.

Notre Dame can then be the big fish in a P5 conference and not deal with Clemson like last year. They can also have their own network like Texas did/does.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Who cares? Army-Navy will always be on its own special weekend, so it will always get incredibly high viewership, and it’ll be worth lots of money accordingly.

Navy is not a bad football-only option if the conference was looking that way but I assume they would want to grab 2-4 full members and call it good. Football-only members screams small time/G5 to me.

I was not saying it in a negative way, that is the reason they do it, to honor the military teams. But it does not give a true indication of the fanbase of either team because it does well in TV ratings.

 

[Neptune78]

Q--"What's your favorite memory of BYU?"

A-- "Leaving."

Jim McMahon