This might have more to do with how big the SEC wants to get and what is their end game. Everything is trending south including population and athletics, especially outdoor athletics like football, baseball, softball and track. The SEC rules those sports especially compared to the Big and that gap is just going to continue to get bigger. If the SEC goes after the top PAC schools why would they choose the Big over the SEC?
Yes, the SEC and their broker ESPN are driving this thing. I think it favors occurring in 5 years.
Clemson will never have a higher valuation (see FSU as a cautionary tale), UNC's ability to dictate the breakup decreases with each year, Duke post Coach K could make it harder for them to leverage their way into either.
Eventually the BIG will have to jump in, or it will be a P1 situation. Delaney would have had them exploiting this and getting with the times, adding 6 ACC schools if that is what it took to secure the BIGs footprint in the South and hedge the SEC's play. But Warren and current leadership are as good.
The BIG is going to have to rely on the "we promise to invite you in 10 years" slow play to 2-4 ACC members, and hope it doesn't get leaked. Once it is leaked, ESPN and fear would take it from there to finish off the ACC.
With things like the bathroom bill response by the ACC getting backlash in NC, politics will also have a say. Add in going to the BIG and having VT and NC St in the SEC is less than appealing, and the SEC being a much better brand in the South, and I fear we're looking at a SEC with OuT and the top 4-6 most valuable ACC brands. They may add KU to help the basketball bluebloods feel at home.