Regardless how next two games go, we're going to wish ISU had just won that TT game (or the KSU game, although as sweet as it would've been, probably wouldn't help our bowl possibilities at this point).
Bowl Predictor - Odds by the numbers
- Thread starter CyFan61
- Start date
Keep in mind, the bowl pecking order does not always dictate the order that teams finish in, in other words, WV is closer to NYC, Pinstripe might pick them first based on getting more fans. Plus bowls tend to pick a different team from year to year based on new exposure.
The common agreement coming down seems to be that the last 3 picks will be
TCU (6-6)
ISU (6-6 or 7-5) (if we're somehow 5-7 this discussion is moot)
WVU (6-6 or 7-5)
If the big 12 gets 2 bcs spots as is becoming expected.
The w-l will be close enough (within 1 win) that they might as well be equal in bowl selection eyes, as there is often a good amount of movement in that area. At worst for us TCU will tie us at 6-6 (no way they beat UT or OU). WVU will be 7-5 if they beat us or 6-6 without. All 3 very much in the 'it wouldnt be a snub for one to get picked over the other' category.
Given that, and given that bowls tend to work together to create matchups that drive attendance, i think theres a very real possibility of it going:
ISU Holiday- fans travel well, and WVU fans all the way to CA is a stretch. TCU has tiny fanbase.
TCU Meineke- they will want to get a texas team as they will fill the stands
WVU pinstripe- closest team from the big 12 available, and a big east rematch
TCU (6-6)
ISU (6-6 or 7-5) (if we're somehow 5-7 this discussion is moot)
WVU (6-6 or 7-5)
If the big 12 gets 2 bcs spots as is becoming expected.
The w-l will be close enough (within 1 win) that they might as well be equal in bowl selection eyes, as there is often a good amount of movement in that area. At worst for us TCU will tie us at 6-6 (no way they beat UT or OU). WVU will be 7-5 if they beat us or 6-6 without. All 3 very much in the 'it wouldnt be a snub for one to get picked over the other' category.
Given that, and given that bowls tend to work together to create matchups that drive attendance, i think theres a very real possibility of it going:
ISU Holiday- fans travel well, and WVU fans all the way to CA is a stretch. TCU has tiny fanbase.
TCU Meineke- they will want to get a texas team as they will fill the stands
WVU pinstripe- closest team from the big 12 available, and a big east rematch
TCU had trouble filling their own stadium for our game . . . because it was us, they had player problems, it was cold, and students were on break at homes far beyond Texas. Still, they are the least Texas-oriented Big 12 school in Texas, especially during a student break by their own admission.
They have problems filling it with their own fans every game, its just that for many games they can fill seats with fans of closer schools. Being in a fairly central location to the big 12 they have that advantage that most teams are within short drives. I would imagine attendance for KU and WVU games will suck there in the future as well.
As far as the students were on break excuse, they have 9000 students total. Even if all of their students had tickets and all of their students didnt show up due to break (but even then i would argue that skipping games due to a break says something about their fan turnout, especially related to bowls which are also during breaks), that wouldnt account for the huge gaps we saw.
In discussion with the TCU fans, I suggested that they look at the crowd for our game against West Virginia to see what a student section should look like during a break, even Thanksgiving. Granted, most of our students live within 3 hours, but they will be there is huge numbers.
I'm not trying to be a smartass or anything, but why do people keep saying TCU has a "national brand." Wikipedia shows them at 9500 enrollment, which is less than UNI. Says 75000 living alumni, a good chunk less than what UNI states of "over 100,000."
Maybe they're just *known* to travel well?
It is more that there are not "just" a Texas school. I forget what the TCU posters said, but it is something like more than half of the students are from outside Texas.
No chance of getting outside of the Big 12 pecking order this year. Odds are the conference won't even fill all of its own games.
I really prefer we go to Houston or San Diego. If records are close, I don't see ISU in Houston...it'll be TCU. If nothing else Texas takes care of Texas. We'll go to San Diego and WVU to NYC.
Agree that WV may not be the strongest 'brand' out there, but you can't go by enrollment. ND has a pretty good brand with only 11,000 students. Duke basketball is even a better example.
