Bracketology 2024

[CyPunch]

Big 12 as of 2/12/2024

Locks: Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor

Probably in: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, BYU, TCU, Texas

Coin flip: Cincinnati

Probably Out: UCF, Kansas St

No Shot: West Virginia, Ok State

Iowa State moves into LOCK territory with a perfect week. One of the top 3 seeds as of today.

Cincinnati is squarely on the bubble. They really need tomorrow nights game. Torrvik gives them a 63% shot to make the tourney.

KState has a huge game against TCU next Saturday. They are going to need to overperform down the stretch to make the dance. Down to 4.1% tourney odds with their poor metrics.

 

[bawbie]

That V Tech game is probably the worst performance of the year, all things considered. We basically shot our way to a loss with terrible 3 point shooting (shot selection was bad) and at the line.

If committee has to nitpick on something that may end up being a loss that hurts us. V Tech has not only lost a lot of games but they've lost a lot by 20+ points. That's never a good look.

Haslemetrics tracks efficiency rate - offensively, defensively and overall - against the expected performance on a game-by-game basis.

the VaTech and TAMU games in Orlando are BY FAR our worst offensive showing of the year. VaTech is the worst game overall, with BYU sneaking in there below the TAMU game overall, due to the worst defensive showing of the year.

Keshon just had a horrible game against VaTech - after getting to the FT Line 15 times the day before against VCU and making 12, he went 1-6 from the FT line and 0-4 from 3 in that game. Thankfully he hasn't had a dud like that since and is shooting almost 32% from 3 and 80% from the FT line in conference play.

 

[CyPunch]

Big 10 as of 2/12/2024

Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois

Probably in: Michigan St, Northwestern

Coin flip: Nebraska

Probably Out: Iowa

No Shot: Ohio St, Indiana, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn St, Rutgers, Michigan

Nebraska stopped their 2 game skid with a convincing win over Michigan. They simply can't win on the road. Penn State is a must win game at home next weekend and then they have a winnable road game @ Indiana.

Michigan State picked up a much needed win over Illinois. Sparty is a metric darling (#17 on KP) and should be safe as long as they don't collapse down the stretch.

Wisconsin has lost 4 in a row. The last two to noon-tourney teams. They have fallen from 2 seed consideration to closer to a 5 seed. Saturday was ugly getting blown out at Rutgers. Thank you for your help, Jeremiah Williams.

Iowa is hanging on by a thread. They are stuck with zero Quad 1 wins but have many remaining opportunities with an actually challenging schedule to finish (7th remaining SOS nationally). They have a winnable road game @ Maryland on Wednesday before the schedule gets tough (Wisconsin, @ Mich St, @ Illinois, Penn St, @ Northwestern, Illinois).

 

[Cyclonepride]

Big 10 as of 2/12/2024

Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois

Probably in: Michigan St, Northwestern

Coin flip: Nebraska

Probably Out: Iowa

No Shot: Ohio St, Indiana, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn St, Rutgers, Michigan

Nebraska stopped their 2 game skid with a convincing win over Michigan. They simply can't win on the road. Penn State is a must win game at home next weekend and then they have a winnable road game @ Indiana.

Michigan State picked up a much needed win over Illinois. Sparty is a metric darling (#17 on KP) and should be safe as long as they don't collapse down the stretch.

Wisconsin has lost 4 in a row. The last two to noon-tourney teams. They have fallen from 2 seed consideration to closer to a 5 seed. Saturday was ugly getting blown out at Rutgers. Thank you for your help, Jeremiah Williams.

Iowa is hanging on by a thread. They are stuck with zero Quad 1 wins but have many remaining opportunities with an actually challenging schedule to finish (7th remaining SOS nationally). They have a winnable road game @ Maryland on Wednesday before the schedule gets tough (Wisconsin, @ Mich St, @ Illinois, Penn St, @ Northwestern, Illinois).

I'd be pretty shocked if Iowa goes better than 3-4 in the stretch run, and they probably need 6-1.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

That V Tech game is probably the worst performance of the year, all things considered. We basically shot our way to a loss with terrible 3 point shooting (shot selection was bad) and at the line.

If committee has to nitpick on something that may end up being a loss that hurts us. V Tech has not only lost a lot of games but they've lost a lot by 20+ points. That's never a good look.

Meh the Big 12 conference slate washes that out. Since NET was put in place it doesn't seem like the committee values the OOC slates like they use to or even penalizes you for an early "bad loss".

 

[ZRF]

Haslemetrics tracks efficiency rate - offensively, defensively and overall - against the expected performance on a game-by-game basis.

the VaTech and TAMU games in Orlando are BY FAR our worst offensive showing of the year. VaTech is the worst game overall, with BYU sneaking in there below the TAMU game overall, due to the worst defensive showing of the year.

Keshon just had a horrible game against VaTech - after getting to the FT Line 15 times the day before against VCU and making 12, he went 1-6 from the FT line and 0-4 from 3 in that game. Thankfully he hasn't had a dud like that since and is shooting almost 32% from 3 and 80% from the FT line in conference play.

That's right. Keshon balled out and bailed us out the day before, then almost seemed intimidated/completely disinterested the next. At the time it seemed so bizarre.

At the time I was thinking he'd be the 2023-2024 version of Kalscheur (Jeckyl and Hyde) but he's probably been our most consistent player since conference play has started.

 

[ZRF]

Meh the Big 12 conference slate washes that out. Since NET was put in place it doesn't seem like the committee values the OOC slates like they use to or even penalizes you for an early "bad loss".

That's my personal feeling as well but have seen the committee do stupid **** fairly repeatedly.

Just look at the 99-2000 team. Great record, won the conference and conference tourneys, and had a huge winning streak going in. It's pretty obvious the committee held those early season losses against us despite all of the current evidence that proved we were a number 1 seed.

All it takes is one of those ******** to bring up "well, what about that loss to Vtech" to get them looking when they are assigning/nitpicking seeds. Hopefully it won't matter but saying it won't might be optimistic.

 

[CyPunch]

Big East as of 2/12/2024

Locks: UConn, Marquette

Probably in: Creighton

Coin flip: St John's, Butler, Providence, Villanova, Seton Hall

Probably Out: Xavier

No Shot: Georgetown, DePaul

St John's is on the wrong side of the cut line right now. As is their opponent this week, Providence. A huge bubble game for both teams at the AMP tomorrow night.

It's been a bad run of late for Seton Hall. Their last victory over a real team (DePaul and Georgetown don't count) came January 16th against St John's. They have a big week with a home tilt against Xavier and a road test at St John's.

Villanova handled Seton Hall yesterday to keep their tournament hopes alive. Their 13-11 record is ugly but the metrics still like them. Their final 3 games of the regular season are @ Providence, @ Seton Hall, and Creighton. If they can hold their head above water until then those 3 games will be make or break.

Xavier actually could of played their way back onto the bubble but took a home loss to Creighton on Saturday. A bad non-conference showing is going to keep them out of the dance this year.

 

[Cydkar]

That's my personal feeling as well but have seen the committee do stupid **** fairly repeatedly.

Just look at the 99-2000 team. Great record, won the conference and conference tourneys, and had a huge winning streak going in. It's pretty obvious the committee held those early season losses against us despite all of the current evidence that proved we were a number 1 seed.

All it takes is one of those ******** to bring up "well, what about that loss to Vtech" to get them looking when they are assigning/nitpicking seeds. Hopefully it won't matter but saying it won't might be optimistic.

A committee, from over 20 years ago, couldn't be less relevant. Could the current committee be dumb? Of course. They could also be dumb in our favor somehow.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Big East as of 2/12/2024

Locks: UConn, Marquette

Probably in: Creighton

Coin flip: St John's, Butler, Providence, Villanova, Seton Hall

Probably Out: Xavier

No Shot: Georgetown, DePaul

St John's is on the wrong side of the cut line right now. As is their opponent this week, Providence. A huge bubble game for both teams at the AMP tomorrow night.

It's been a bad run of late for Seton Hall. Their last victory over a real team (DePaul and Georgetown don't count) came January 16th against St John's. They have a big week with a home tilt against Xavier and a road test at St John's.

Villanova handled Seton Hall yesterday to keep their tournament hopes alive. Their 13-11 record is ugly but the metrics still like them. Their final 3 games of the regular season are @ Providence, @ Seton Hall, and Creighton. If they can hold their head above water until then those 3 games will be make or break.

Xavier actually could of played their way back onto the bubble but took a home loss to Creighton on Saturday. A bad non-conference showing is going to keep them out of the dance this year.

Surprised the Big East is that weak this year, as they have been really strong.

 

[Cyowa 14]

Speaking of NET, there are now only 6 schools that only have Q1 losses:
1) Houston (Q1: 7-3)
2) Purdue (Q1: 8-2)
18) Dayton (Q1: 3-4)
19) San Diego St (Q1: 3-6)
20) Indiana St (Q1: 1-3)
31) Florida (Q1: 2-7)

We'd be there too, except VaTech has gone to hell and fallen to #62.

Va Tech had one job, beat a horrendous Notre Dame team and they would have jumped above top 50 net making it a Q1, they lossed and fell to 63. Not a huge deal though

 

[bosco]

I'd be pretty shocked if Iowa goes better than 3-4 in the stretch run, and they probably need 6-1.

Yikes. Just looked at their schedule. Good possibility they only win 1 or 2 games the rest of the way.

 

[kentkel]

Yikes. Just looked at their schedule. Good possibility they only win 1 or 2 games the rest of the way.

It's the Big 10. They don't really have a tough schedule the rest of the way. I will say this, however - they don't have the luxury of playing against an incompetent coach (i.e. Ben Johnson) down the stretch, so there's that.

 

[LLCoolCY]

That's my personal feeling as well but have seen the committee do stupid **** fairly repeatedly.

Just look at the 99-2000 team. Great record, won the conference and conference tourneys, and had a huge winning streak going in. It's pretty obvious the committee held those early season losses against us despite all of the current evidence that proved we were a number 1 seed.

All it takes is one of those ******** to bring up "well, what about that loss to Vtech" to get them looking when they are assigning/nitpicking seeds. Hopefully it won't matter but saying it won't might be optimistic.

I'll never predict how the committee will value ISU and most us know ISU was 1 seed worthy in 99*00. Adding insult to injury was being placed in the MW with MSU and having to play in MI. Every time I think I gotten past that I still riled up.
There are a few differences now that should help ISU get a deserving seed. ISU has been on the national radar since January with almost all the game (sans LHN) have been seen by the committee and national media and pass the eye test. TJ's teams have been to the tourney the past two years thus they are considered a true good program that has won in tourney. The metrics are known plus having the bracket reveal limit the "surprise" seeding that was more random in 2000. The Big 12 was a bit down and not considered the clear #1 conference so easier to not justify having the conference winner as a 1 seed. Obviously this year the B12 is so far a head I can easily see a 1 and 2 seed from the conference. In the end ISU has to win and take the seed but I feel better about ISU being accurately seeded come March.

 

[CyPunch]

Surprised the Big East is that weak this year, as they have been really strong.

Creighton is a bit like Kansas in that their 4 main guys are really good but they don't have much of a bench. The "we need to rest our starters" crowd on here from December would lose their minds if they saw how many minutes Trey Alexander and Baylor Schierman have logged this year.

That was a nice win at Xavier to end their slide. Much needed.

 

[AuH2O]

Meh the Big 12 conference slate washes that out. Since NET was put in place it doesn't seem like the committee values the OOC slates like they use to or even penalizes you for an early "bad loss".

To an extent, but every loss matters and compounds. Barring a crazy run the rest of the way those losses in Orlando probably drop ISU a seed line.

 

[AuH2O]

Surprised the Big East is that weak this year, as they have been really strong.

DePaul and Georgetown are massive anchors on the conference.

 

[CascadeClone]

File this away in the "no use crying over spilled milk category", but man those two games in Orlando bug me. We'd definitely be in the 1 seed discussion if we'd taken care of those, which I think we would have done with Ward.

Oh well.

Yeahbut... they were really still working in CuJo and Gilbert to higher level ball. Not to mention trying to figure out who they were gonna be offensively and develop that chemistry. I don't think it could have been helped.

So, yeah, its a bummer, and the NET etc would be slightly better, but I think it makes sense considering all the new pieces early in the season.

The question now is: can they keep improving the next 6 weeks like they have the last 6 weeks?
If the answer is "yes", that is a terrifying team coming down the stretch.

 

[ZRF]

I'll never predict how the committee will value ISU and most us know ISU was 1 seed worthy in 99*00. Adding insult to injury was being placed in the MW with MSU and having to play in MI. Every time I think I gotten past that I still riled up.
There are a few differences now that should help ISU get a deserving seed. ISU has been on the national radar since January with almost all the game (sans LHN) have been seen by the committee and national media and pass the eye test. TJ's teams have been to the tourney the past two years thus they are considered a true good program that has won in tourney. The metrics are known plus having the bracket reveal limit the "surprise" seeding that was more random in 2000. The Big 12 was a bit down and not considered the clear #1 conference so easier to not justify having the conference winner as a 1 seed. Obviously this year the B12 is so far a head I can easily see a 1 and 2 seed from the conference. In the end ISU has to win and take the seed but I feel better about ISU being accurately seeded come March.

Totally agree with this. My point was I'm not putting anything past the committee. Even though these guys aren't on it, there are several that MAKE THEIR LIVING doing cbb and bracket projections. The fact so many had Wisconsin as a 2 seed is simply laughable to me.

But yeah, being on the national radar (having relevance and respect) will hopefully help us on some of those 50/50 decisons.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

To an extent, but every loss matters and compounds. Barring a crazy run the rest of the way those losses in Orlando probably drop ISU a seed line.

I think the A&M loss was worse than VT, just cause we had a huge lead in that game and they were missing two starters. We should have won that game based off how it was playing out. That would be a good Q1 win on a neutral floor against a tournament team in hindsight.

VT we were down most of the game and getting outplayed for the majority of it if I recall correctly. I never really felt like that was a game that we could steal (once it tipped).