I've been following Arizona a lot this year. They have the talent to be a #1 seed and make a deep run in March. They're extremely soft though. Boswell doesn't handle ball pressure at all and Love is generally out of control. He reminds me a lot of Marcus Carr.
Bracketology 2024
- Thread starter CoachHines3
- Start date
I gave both you and @NoCreativity an "Agree." UA likely has it if field were selected today, it's there for the taking for them or UNC.
Other scenarios are possible, certainly, but may require a semi-meltdown by both of them for anyone else to grab it.
ISU probably did climb a line that season, but also keep in mind, two wins were over OU (ranked 15th at the time, got 3 seed in NCAAT) and KU (#9, 2 seed). So it was quality of wins, not that we won the tournament.
Not to claim that's what you suggested, but a general note.
Don't you just assume you will get a couple of quality wins if you win the conference tournament?
Yeah, I'd say Arizona, UNC, or Tennessee will get the last #1 seed. It will likely be whichever team finishes strongest down the stretch.
Why would we need to worry about Auburn and Alabama? If one of them gets seeded ahead of us they will go to Memphis.
It's actually a joke they are both being talked about as 2 seeds. Alabama is 3-7 in Quad 1 games and Auburn is 2-6.
That's a good point. In most situations, probably so.
Maybe wouldn't apply if you happen to meet the lowest seed possible in each round on the way to the title, but even wins in those keep you at least steady, unless your conference is extremely weak.
So really no "blanket" formula.
Meh, we could be a 1 before the conference finals. Teams in front of us just need to lose in the last two weeks of the season and we need to win outright for us to have a shot. Hopefully Tennessee, Arizona, and Houston lose during the season and we could find ourselves teetering in the 3-5 ranking in the poll. Even at 5 in the final AP Poll before the tourney begins should get us to a 1 if we win the conference tournament (going 2-1 against Houston, assuming we would play them in the conference championship, should give us the nod over Houston if they lose another game during the season). If we don't beat Houston in the conference championship I think we end up as a 3 seed.
Probably not a major concern, I think it's mainly to leave Memphis as "open" as possible in case Baylor is in position to get sent there vs. going to Omaha.
If ISU takes care of business, that'll be moot.
If Auburn or Alabama are ahead of us in addition to Baylor it knocks Baylor to Omaha instead of Memphis.
We would of not of been in Omaha based on the seed list at the Top 16 reveal. We are definitely ahead of Baylor now. Should be ahead of Alabama as well after Saturday but it's close. Hopefully they lose at Ole Miss on Wednesday. Beard really needs that win.
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Love this draw too! It seems the highly-ranked bracketologists in Bracket Matrix have us in advantageous spots. Hopefully that holds true
This is why you just can’t look at non con schedules and apply the same logic across all teams. There isn’t another conference that is even close to the gauntlet the Big 12 has to go through.
Big 12 as of 2/26/2024
Locks: Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor
Probably in: Texas Tech, BYU, TCU
Work to Do: Oklahoma, Texas
Probably Out: Cincinnati, Kansas St
No Shot: UCF, West Virginia, Ok State
Texas is falling fast. They are 6-8 in league play with an upcoming road trip to Lubbock. They may need to win one in KC to feel completely safe on Selection Sunday depending on how these next two weeks go.
Cincinnati did what they could not do last week and dropped a home game to Oklahoma St and lost convincingly over the weekend in Ft Worth. They are really up against it with a road game against newly minted #1 Houston on Wednesday. Good luck. They probably will need to win all 3 of their remaining games after that and 1 in KC. Likely a NIT host for Wes Miller and company.
KState kept their season alive with a win vs BYU on Saturday. They get WVU at home tonight and then play at Cincinnati on Saturday in a pseudo elimination game. Things look pretty bleak for the Tang gang but they're not completely dead yet.
Oklahoma could join the bubble talk with an 0-2 week. They're in Ames Wednesday night and get Houston at home on Saturday. The Sooners were pretty fortunate to escape Stillwater with an OT win.
Locks: Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor
Probably in: Texas Tech, BYU, TCU
Work to Do: Oklahoma, Texas
Probably Out: Cincinnati, Kansas St
No Shot: UCF, West Virginia, Ok State
Texas is falling fast. They are 6-8 in league play with an upcoming road trip to Lubbock. They may need to win one in KC to feel completely safe on Selection Sunday depending on how these next two weeks go.
Cincinnati did what they could not do last week and dropped a home game to Oklahoma St and lost convincingly over the weekend in Ft Worth. They are really up against it with a road game against newly minted #1 Houston on Wednesday. Good luck. They probably will need to win all 3 of their remaining games after that and 1 in KC. Likely a NIT host for Wes Miller and company.
KState kept their season alive with a win vs BYU on Saturday. They get WVU at home tonight and then play at Cincinnati on Saturday in a pseudo elimination game. Things look pretty bleak for the Tang gang but they're not completely dead yet.
Oklahoma could join the bubble talk with an 0-2 week. They're in Ames Wednesday night and get Houston at home on Saturday. The Sooners were pretty fortunate to escape Stillwater with an OT win.
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Big 10 as of 2/26/2024
Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois
Probably in: Michigan St, Northwestern, Nebraska
Work To Do: Iowa
Probably Out: Ohio St
No Shot: Indiana, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn St, Rutgers, Michigan
Northwestern is safe. For now. They need to notch a couple more victories down the stretch to become a lock. That Ty Berry injury lowers their ceiling.
Nebraska got a road win at Indiana and followed it up with a win over Minnesota at home. The Huskers feel pretty safe right now barring a colossal collapse down the stretch. The remaining schedule is very manageable.
Michigan State had an absolute nightmare week. Got beat soundly by Iowa in the Breslin Center and then let Ohio State hang around only to lose on a buzzer beater. Sparty maintains great metrics but the losses are adding up. A trip to West Lafayette looms with the potential to extend this slide to 3 games and really start to make things interesting. One of Izzo's worst coaching jobs.
Iowa did what they needed to last week and split their road tests against NCAA tourney teams. The bubble having a bad day Saturday also helps their cause. The formula for the Hoks seems pretty simple - Win 2 of their remaining 3 games (Penn St, @ Northwestern, Illinois) and then 2 games in Minneapolis. Anything short of that probably isn't good enough. However, they have a much better shot than the CF consensus realizes.
Ohio State's two key wins since firing Holtmann give them a very faint shot. They need to finish 3-0 against Nebraska, Michigan, and at Rutgers and then win 2 in the Big Ten tourney. Unlikely to happen but the talented roster has at least showed signs of life under interim Jon Diebler.
Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois
Probably in: Michigan St, Northwestern, Nebraska
Work To Do: Iowa
Probably Out: Ohio St
No Shot: Indiana, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn St, Rutgers, Michigan
Northwestern is safe. For now. They need to notch a couple more victories down the stretch to become a lock. That Ty Berry injury lowers their ceiling.
Nebraska got a road win at Indiana and followed it up with a win over Minnesota at home. The Huskers feel pretty safe right now barring a colossal collapse down the stretch. The remaining schedule is very manageable.
Michigan State had an absolute nightmare week. Got beat soundly by Iowa in the Breslin Center and then let Ohio State hang around only to lose on a buzzer beater. Sparty maintains great metrics but the losses are adding up. A trip to West Lafayette looms with the potential to extend this slide to 3 games and really start to make things interesting. One of Izzo's worst coaching jobs.
Iowa did what they needed to last week and split their road tests against NCAA tourney teams. The bubble having a bad day Saturday also helps their cause. The formula for the Hoks seems pretty simple - Win 2 of their remaining 3 games (Penn St, @ Northwestern, Illinois) and then 2 games in Minneapolis. Anything short of that probably isn't good enough. However, they have a much better shot than the CF consensus realizes.
Ohio State's two key wins since firing Holtmann give them a very faint shot. They need to finish 3-0 against Nebraska, Michigan, and at Rutgers and then win 2 in the Big Ten tourney. Unlikely to happen but the talented roster has at least showed signs of life under interim Jon Diebler.
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Just listened to Blum and CW, and Palm’s reasoning that Omaha will be hard to get because everyone in the southern US has Memphis as their number 1 or 2.
Two things:
a.) That’s not true. Charlotte is a first round site and will be the top location for North Carolina, Tennessee, and Duke. Duke’s #2 spot is Pittsburgh, which will definitely have a spot open when it gets to Duke in the pecking order. So they aren’t a risk for Memphis (or Omaha).
The only other southern teams in the top 16 are Houston, Baylor, Alabama, and Auburn. Houston will definitely get Memphis, so that leaves one spot for Baylor, Bama, and Auburn. Bama and Auburn aren’t a risk for Omaha if they don’t get Memphis. Bama will go to Pittsburgh if it doesn’t get Memphis. Auburn (who are several spots below ISU in the S-Curve anyway) would go to Pittsburgh or Brooklyn over Omaha if it doesn’t receive Memphis.
So, ISU’s path to Omaha is pretty simple: rank above Baylor and/or have Baylor rank above Bama and Auburn to secure Memphis. Pretty good odds one or both of those things happen.
Two things:
a.) That’s not true. Charlotte is a first round site and will be the top location for North Carolina, Tennessee, and Duke. Duke’s #2 spot is Pittsburgh, which will definitely have a spot open when it gets to Duke in the pecking order. So they aren’t a risk for Memphis (or Omaha).
The only other southern teams in the top 16 are Houston, Baylor, Alabama, and Auburn. Houston will definitely get Memphis, so that leaves one spot for Baylor, Bama, and Auburn. Bama and Auburn aren’t a risk for Omaha if they don’t get Memphis. Bama will go to Pittsburgh if it doesn’t get Memphis. Auburn (who are several spots below ISU in the S-Curve anyway) would go to Pittsburgh or Brooklyn over Omaha if it doesn’t receive Memphis.
So, ISU’s path to Omaha is pretty simple: rank above Baylor and/or have Baylor rank above Bama and Auburn to secure Memphis. Pretty good odds one or both of those things happen.
Big East as of 2/26/2024
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Probably in:
Work To Do: Seton Hall, Providence, Villanova
Probably Out: St John's, Butler
No Shot: Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier
Butler is in a tail spin. The Bulldogs have lost 4 straight. They have fallen to Next 4 Out or Next Next 4 Out territory. It's not looking good. Their game against St John's Wednesday is a borderline must win but the Johnnie's also really need this one. Something's gotta give.
The Rick Pitino press conference worked (so far). Or was it the all white suit? Anyways, St John's picked up a massive win by margin over Creighton on Sunday. The 2-0 week puts them back close to the cut line. A huge game awaits Wednesday night at Butler. It's a game both teams really need to feel better about their position.
Seton Hall is in the field after 3 straight wins over Xavier, St John's, and Butler. A really tough week awaits with road trips against Creighton and UConn. If they can steal one, it will further solidify their spot in the field.
Villanova beat fellow bubble team Butler and lost soundly to UConn. They are right on the cut line as it stands and will need to take care of Georgetown at home before a massive match up with Providence next weekend.
Xavier has lost 4 in a row. Good night.
The Big East has by far the most bubble teams of any conference. A bunch of them play each other in the next few weeks so it will be fun to follow.
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Probably in:
Work To Do: Seton Hall, Providence, Villanova
Probably Out: St John's, Butler
No Shot: Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier
Butler is in a tail spin. The Bulldogs have lost 4 straight. They have fallen to Next 4 Out or Next Next 4 Out territory. It's not looking good. Their game against St John's Wednesday is a borderline must win but the Johnnie's also really need this one. Something's gotta give.
The Rick Pitino press conference worked (so far). Or was it the all white suit? Anyways, St John's picked up a massive win by margin over Creighton on Sunday. The 2-0 week puts them back close to the cut line. A huge game awaits Wednesday night at Butler. It's a game both teams really need to feel better about their position.
Seton Hall is in the field after 3 straight wins over Xavier, St John's, and Butler. A really tough week awaits with road trips against Creighton and UConn. If they can steal one, it will further solidify their spot in the field.
Villanova beat fellow bubble team Butler and lost soundly to UConn. They are right on the cut line as it stands and will need to take care of Georgetown at home before a massive match up with Providence next weekend.
Xavier has lost 4 in a row. Good night.
The Big East has by far the most bubble teams of any conference. A bunch of them play each other in the next few weeks so it will be fun to follow.
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