I agree but our non-con SOS is 155 in RPI and 198 in kenpom. That is terrible. We need Miami to make the field
Bubble Watch
- Thread starter vcl3
- Start date
I agree but our non-con SOS is 155 in RPI and 198 in kenpom. That is terrible. We need Miami to make the field
Why do we not seem to move much in RPI after road wins? I didn't see much movement after the Kansas win on the road, and again after the Kansas state win. I thought road wins were cherished in RPI calculations.
We are still paying the price for the relatively weak non-conference games. We do have opportunity over the next 3 3+ weeks though...don't stub the toe on TCU and Tech, plus #1 RPI Baylor comes to town. The RPI will get there if we can get the W's...
We moved up 8 spots last night (today) after beating KSU on the road from 55 to 47. Miami got a win also and moved up 2 spots to 50, which is nice to give us another top 50 win.
http://realtimerpi.com/college_Men_basketball_rpi.html
19-6, as we gave up a chance of a probable win in the non-conference.
There isn't a lot of separation in CBB and a lot of teams find their seasons swing on the fickle nature of close games. In our case a lot of it is bad luck imo, but like 2010-11, one more player would have been huge.
Hopefully the ball bounces our way and we finish well enough to not only make it, but avoiding a 1 or 2 seed. If Young gives us anything near yesterday's efficient output and Burton keeps playing well, we're arguably a top-20 team capable of a very deep run with a good draw and the shots falling.
Last edited:
So long as we beat TCU, I think we can lose out and make it. Right now, with projected results, we are easily in and two projected loses are basically 50/50 games. It's entirely possible we go 11-7 which is probably somewhere around a 6 seed.
I also wish they'd do something about OOC SOS. playing Gonzaga, Miami and Cinci consecutively is much harder than play 8 teams in the 150 range. Reward teams for playing really good teams and not for playing a bunch of mediocre teams.
I also wish they'd do something about OOC SOS. playing Gonzaga, Miami and Cinci consecutively is much harder than play 8 teams in the 150 range. Reward teams for playing really good teams and not for playing a bunch of mediocre teams.
That very well may be. But I definitely don't want our fate to come down to a "Who's hot, who's not" scenario.
Good point. The SOS can certainly be gamed by schools with a lot of money. In terms of probable win percentage our OOC was a lot tougher than the cumulative SOS suggests. The SOS says otherwise, but imo effectively there's not much of a difference between playing a bunch of almost-sure wins against teams around 150 and guaranteed wins against cupcakes. we didn't or couldn't buy our way to 9 to 10 expensive probable wins in combination with a few toss-ups or likely losses.
FTR I think we're finishing 4-1 and getting a 4 or 5 seed. Even 3-2 is a 6 or 7.
Cyclones 500 Bubble Watch update, thru Feb. 16.
Not much to report, U-M notched another good win vs. UW. At Minnesota this weekend, getting closer to locking.
Recent consensus is Utah had to do something soon to stay in the conversation. I have a feeling "something" didn't involve losing by 20 at Oregon. Utes are officially done for an at-large ... remaining schedule is nearly useless in that regard.
Not much to report, U-M notched another good win vs. UW. At Minnesota this weekend, getting closer to locking.
Recent consensus is Utah had to do something soon to stay in the conversation. I have a feeling "something" didn't involve losing by 20 at Oregon. Utes are officially done for an at-large ... remaining schedule is nearly useless in that regard.
Bumped up to "should be in" on ESPN's Bubble Watch
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Elevation in status is encouraging, but I probably would keep ISU in "Work to do" category for another game or two.
Good read for the people that are stuck in the pre-exapansion/contraction world of NCAA tourney thinking. So like 50% of the people on this site.
Road wins have no additional weight in RPI
25% of your RPI is your winning percentage
50% of your RPI is your opponent's winning precentage
25% of your RPI is their opponent's winning precentage
Something I noticed in that Bubble Watch (and recent updates), the obsession with "per-possession" metric (I think it makes about 10 references to that throughout). I realize RPI-based system has flaws, and there's a move toward a more comprehensive analysis. But I guess I don't understand how per-possession performance fits into the puzzle. Is it a way to quantify the "eye test"?
I'm sure someone with better knowledge of it can educate me. It seems far less essential than who you beat, who beat you, who did you play, schedule dynamics, et. al.
does this include the games they've played against you? if you beat a team their ranking goes down because they lost. so your ranking goes down because you played a team who lost, right?
