Wow, if they win at Rutgers & maybe not even necessarily get 1 in the big10 tourn., I could see them getting in. Wouldn't that save Groce's job? (Just said that cuz some guru had him 100% gone in an article recently)
Bubble Watch
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Wow, if they win at Rutgers & maybe not even necessarily get 1 in the big10 tourn., I could see them getting in. Wouldn't that save Groce's job? (Just said that cuz some guru had him 100% gone in an article recently)
Yeah, they pretty much came out of nowhere. I dont think they are very good personally, but they certainly have the resume now that at least gets them on the bubble.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...wake-forest-kansas-state-earn-huge-victories/
Kstate confuses the hell out of me. How they get absolutely rolled at Oklahoma, yet go and win at TCU makes no sense. Still, I'm pulling for them to sneak in.
I keep seeing how Syracuse and Michigan State are on the bubble. I'd hate to be competing for a spot against either one of those teams. I still think the name on that jersey matters.
I've only seen Syracuse in a handful of games this year, but I every time I saw them, they won and looked good. (Admittedly, I haven't seen their games where they looked bad so my sample size is skewed) I'd love to see them get left out because they have the talent and coaching to be a team I wouldn't want to face early on.
Kstate confuses the hell out of me. How they get absolutely rolled at Oklahoma, yet go and win at TCU makes no sense. Still, I'm pulling for them to sneak in.
I keep seeing how Syracuse and Michigan State are on the bubble. I'd hate to be competing for a spot against either one of those teams. I still think the name on that jersey matters.
I've only seen Syracuse in a handful of games this year, but I every time I saw them, they won and looked good. (Admittedly, I haven't seen their games where they looked bad so my sample size is skewed) I'd love to see them get left out because they have the talent and coaching to be a team I wouldn't want to face early on.
Ya 2 teams you don't want to be on the bubble against. This morning when I was looking at this I was still in shock thinking about a tourney with no Mich St, but because they are who they are, they will get in.
I don't know about you guys, but I found it fairly insulting that both ISU and OSU weren't moved into the lock category until we had played each other on Tuesday, but the ESPN guys were going on about Northwestern now being a
I ascribe that to the "hitting bottom" factor. I think we hit our bottom against WVU and got our ship righted. I further think that Coach Prohm is fine with allowing the team to hit bottom if they need to, and would rather see them do it earlier.
I ascribe that to the "hitting bottom" factor. I think we hit our bottom against WVU and got our ship righted. I further think that Coach Prohm is fine with allowing the team to hit bottom if they need to, and would rather see them do it earlier.
That's what a good league with parity gets you. That was us a few times this year, too. It's pretty much been every team in this league except KU.
The Big 12 might not be the best league but it's most grinding league every single year.
Not much Bubble Action on March 2.
Biggest Loser: Houston. A loss at UC isn’t damaging, but Cougars got trounced while missing a chance to get a big road win. Still in the mix, but running out of time.
Not helping itself: California … getting steamrolled at Utah.
Iowa and Utah are probably too far out of the at-large party at this point to warrant serious consideration, but probably can’t be put on the “No Way in Hell” list quite yet.
Not a Bubble Team, but: Wisconsin is really skidding.
Biggest Loser: Houston. A loss at UC isn’t damaging, but Cougars got trounced while missing a chance to get a big road win. Still in the mix, but running out of time.
Not helping itself: California … getting steamrolled at Utah.
Iowa and Utah are probably too far out of the at-large party at this point to warrant serious consideration, but probably can’t be put on the “No Way in Hell” list quite yet.
Not a Bubble Team, but: Wisconsin is really skidding.
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Iowa
17-13 (9-8)
Current RPI: 74
Iowa's RPI by possible finishes (Penn State on Saturday counted as a win):
1-1: 79
2-1: 70
3-1: 59
4-1: 57
So essentially they have to beat Penn State Saturday and win 2 in the Big Ten tourney to have a shot. In my opinion though, a 3-1 finish is good enough for them to be Last 4 In.
Current advanced metric ratings:
KenPom- 70
Sagarin- 68
KPI- 64
BPI: 78
4 Top 50 wins
2 sub-100 losses
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I appreciate the practical analysis.
Shudder to think if Big Ten actually could land 9 teams in the tournament. Especially considering it has so little powerhousing at the top of the league (mostly a mish-mash of 4-5-6 seeds at this point).
It'd be amusing for Big Ten to get 8 bids, but have nobody reach the second weekend (although I'm guessing at least two advance to Sweet 16, and Michigan Freaking State will probably be one of 'em.)
After tonight, Iowa's a lot closer than people think. I bet if they go 2-1, they're 50/50 to be in Dayton. 3-1, they'll be in. Wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, and us, and above .500 in the Big Ten. Put their resume against Illinois State or Middle Tennessee, and they'll have a fighting chance.
Right now, Team Rankings has them at 9.8%. They have the good wins, and not too many bad losses, but there must be a bunch of almost bad losses to get the RPI and other metrics to where they are.
I have a really hard time seeing the Big Ten getting 9 teams. I think the way everyone goes day to day with the brackets, things like that get out of whack as people are over-weighting the recent trends.
Adding to that, three weeks ago, the committee's own list had no Big Ten teams in the top four seeds. None. The top part of that conference certainly hasn't done much (outside of Purdue) to make the argument that they belong now. In fact, both Wisconsin and Maryland have been exposed as pretty average. I think that they are more likely to get 7 teams than 9 (though Iowa might have an argument to make over some of the other teams thought to be above them).
Definitely some truth to this. There is some reactionary stuff, moving some teams too far up or down with big wins/bad losses. Human nature.
Since Wisconsin fans bitched about not being in the committees top 16 they have proceeded to absolutely implode.
I just can't see the Big 10 going from zero in the top 16 to getting 9 teams within a span of 3 weeks.
I can only hope that next year the bubble is this craptacular when we are in a rebuilding mode.
Iowa is certainly doing what they need to do at this point. However, what they need to do in the Big Ten tournament is win at least twice. The problem is, under Fran they're 2-6 in that tournament. Fran is a piss poor tournament coach. The numbers don't lie. He's 2-3 in the NCAA tournament for a combined 4-9. That can't be very encouraging as a Hawk fan.
I have a hard time seeing them get 9 teams too, but:
-The ACC isn't getting the 11 that people thought they were
-The SEC is probably looking at 4
-Pac-12 could only have 4 now with California looking to be out
-B12 is looking at a maximum of 6, maybe only 5
The beneficiaries will be the B1G, Big East, and Illinois State/Wichita, because the mid-majors aren't getting anyone else in. In a weak bubble, Illinois and Iowa will outrank Georgia, TCU, GT, Houston. That's who they're going up against.
TCU is 6 spots above them (RPI). Houston is 21 above them. Georgia is 22 spots above them. Georgia Tech is the only one below them of that group.
WRT Iowa - isn't it like 95% of power5 conference teams that are over .500 make it in?
I get their RPI is terrible and they have bad losses, but just the above makes me think they have a very decent chance.
I get their RPI is terrible and they have bad losses, but just the above makes me think they have a very decent chance.
