Here’s The Deal … Over the last several years, Iowa State has taken its cuts and came up with some stunning wins in this series. Rarely have the Cyclones been better than the Hawkeyes, but the cliché of throwing out the record books when these two go at it applies. However, it’s been all Iowa over the last two meetings with a dominant 35-3 win last year coming off a 17-5 victory in 2008. The expectations are through the roof for the Hawkeyes with the talent and the schedule to be a major factor in the BCS Championship race, but they need to be a bit better than they were in the 37-7 win over Eastern Illinois. While the offense kept the chains moving, the two fumbles weren’t a plus and the team slowed down after a strong first quarter. It’s nitpicking considering the victory was nothing more than a live scrimmage, but for a team this good, it needs to be clicking this week before a dangerous trip to Arizona. Iowa State took care of Northern Illinois with surprising ease. The Huskies could end up winning the MAC, but the Cyclone offense moved well and the run defense slowed down the dangerous attack. With the Big 12 opener at Kansas State next week, this is a great test to see how much the team has progressed under second year head man Paul Rhoads.
Why Iowa State Might Win: The Cyclone passing game is working. Everyone knows Alexander Robinson is among the Big 12’s most dangerous backs, and QB Austen Arnaud is at his best when he’s on the move, but last week the offense was able to move the ball through the air with 265 yards against the NIU secondary. It wasn’t the most efficient effort, but anything that can take the heat off Robinson is a good thing. Against the phenomenal Iowa defense, converting third downs is a must. That happens by making the down and distance manageable, and with a good short passing game the Cyclones should be in plenty of 3rd and two situations instead of 3rd and eight.
Why Iowa Might Win: The Iowa running game should be able to manhandle the Cyclone defensive front. Last week NIU only gained 156 yards on the ground, but that was partly because DeMarcus Grady was at quarterback and there was no threat of being burned by the Huskie air prowess. Grady completed fewer than half of his passes for 93 yards and no touchdowns with three interceptions, but Ricky Stanzi isn’t Grady, and bum knee and all, he’ll be good enough provide a few big home runs. Iowa should have a much better time running the ball than NIU thanks to a more balanced offense and the emergence of …
What To Watch Out For: Adam Robinson and the expected return of Jewel Hampton, who was suspended for the season opener. Hampton, the team’s best back, might not get to hog all the carries to himself with Robinson proving he’s worthy of being the focal point of the ground game. The team’s leading returning rusher blasted out 109 yards and three scores on 29 carries against Eastern Illinois, and while Hawkeye fans want to see what Hampton can do, Robinson could still be the most effective runner. He’s a proven workhorse, but he wore down last year and now should be even more effective with a great back in Hampton to be the star at times.
What Will Happen: Iowa State QB Austen Arnaud had a nightmare of a day last year against the Hawkeyes throwing four picks and just 79 yards in the blowout loss. He’ll make amends with a tremendous performance, but it won’t be enough as Iowa runs for 200 yards to overcome several turnovers on the way to the win.
CFN Prediction: Iowa 27 … Iowa State 13 … Line: Iowa -13.5
Scout.com: 2010 Big Ten Predictions - Penn St vs. Bama
