Close losses

[shadow]

Neither Iowa or Bama are statistically significantly different than ISU at the 95% significance level. Though Bama is statistically significantly better at 90% significance. I'm not disagreeing with your point, but people need more than just W-L data to draw any conclusions.

I didn't really have a point. I just like to pull data to try and put things into context since I know that I, like most, can get caught up with recency bias.

I honestly was surprised that Iowa wasn't better at close games than they are.

I pulled Alabama numbers because they're the gold standard of CFB.

My theory is that close games are a lot like turnovers in that it's a bit of luck, a bit of skill, a bit of discipline/leadership, confidence/belief, and who knows.

 

[qwerty]

I just scrolled back through the seasons. 2017 season on (65 games and counting) we have only lost 2 regular season games by more than 10 points. At Texas in 2018 (24-10) and Louisiana in 2020 (31-14). There have been 25 regular season losses (40-25) but only 2 by more than 10 points. ISU is 14-18 in regular season one score games in that stretch.

All though one always wants more, being a long time Cyclone fan, I will gladly take that record. Now let's hope we can swing it back to the plus side and win the close ones the rest of the way.

Year Reg Season 7 points or less
2017: 7-5 2-4
2018: 8-4 3-1
2019: 7-5 2-4
2020: 8-2 4-1
2021: 7-5 2-4
2022: 3-4 1-4

 

[PSYclone22]

We were 6-1 in one score games between 2020 and the start of 2021. What happened?!

Bad luck happened, just have to deal with it.

 

[Thomasrickj]

There are two ways to look at close games. The first is that the team/coaches don't know how to win. The second is that the team/coaches over perform and make games closer than they should.

Our losses are a combination of both of these. Yesterday was clearly the 2nd reason though. No one on here thought we were going to win. We played our asses off and didn't quite get it done. That's all.

The Texas game was clearly a winnable game. That turnover by Dekkers was a 10-14 point swing (depending on if we had scored a touchdown or a field goal), and special teams usually makes a 7-14 point difference for us as well (in the negative direction, obviously). I wouldn't say we overperformed and made the game closer than it should've been. We were in a spot to win, made some bad mistakes, etc. Texas capitalized on that endzone interception to march right down and score. This team showed it's capable of beating Texas, but it really needs to fix things and then we can start winning these one possession games.

 

[jsb]

The Texas game was clearly a winnable game. That turnover by Dekkers was a 10-14 point swing (depending on if we had scored a touchdown or a field goal), and special teams usually makes a 7-14 point difference for us as well (in the negative direction, obviously). I wouldn't say we overperformed and made the game closer than it should've been. We were in a spot to win, made some bad mistakes, etc. Texas capitalized on that endzone interception to march right down and score. This team showed it's capable of beating Texas, but it really needs to fix things and then we can start winning these one possession games.

For sure it was winnable. But was it winnable only because we greatly over performed due to good coaching? Or was it winnable because Texas is overrated? We don’t know.

If you look at Jeremy’s prediction thread poll, most of us did not think it was winnable. So if you value the opinion of people on here, we greatly over performed.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

We simply not a very good football team. Our losses are the result of less talent and poor coaching. It has nothing to do with the officiating!

Sweet response troll.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

We are 0-4 in Big 12 play. So far the only thing we can say is that we are not very good team to this point. Now, many say because of the bad offense and special teams were not doing very well. Well isn't the offense and special teams part of a team? CMC preaches we need to win the margins. Clearly, that is not being done.

JFC your posts read like you were dropped on your head.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

We were 6-1 in one score games between 2020 and the start of 2021. What happened?!

Bad luck happened, just have to deal with it.

Ball control was huge. The multiple TE sets had an advantage for a bit but once teams figured it out our offense really become stagnant and predictable.

 

[Drew0311]

My opinion on close losses this year

We need to recruit another field goal kicker who can make fields goals or at least push our current guy to get his act together and start making them. We have lost two games this year where a field goal kicker would have either out right won the game or at least tied it with a chance for us to score and win.

 

[JM4CY]

We were 6-1 in one score games between 2020 and the start of 2021. What happened?!

Bad luck happened, just have to deal with it.

Regression to the mean. (and piss poor special teams)

 

[cytor]

Although ISU lost another close game, the Hoks got beat fairly easily last Saturday. Click on attachment for details.

 

[ZRF]

I guess I'm not picky about what's wrong with the defense considering they've been more stout against KU, KSU, and UT* than any of the other teams they've faced and will likely face. It seems like a pretty big ask to keep KU below 11 points, KSU below 7 points, and UT below 21 points. I don't disagree with anything you've said but I think even Bill Parcells would agree that a finger should be pointing at special teams and the offense (and not the defense) for this particular football team...

I don't necessarily disagree with what you are saying just that both things can be and are likely true. Getting enough pressure on 3rd and longs in big games and getting enough pressure to cause turnovers have been continual problems, regardless of the overall numbers. I think this becomes magnified when we have an offense that can't be relied on to score points and/or punch it in when in the red zone.

In general our coverage has been good (when someone like Tampa doesn't blow an assignment) but the pressure has been abysmal. It's inconsistent and not really conducive to forcing turnovers, something we really need. With Rose, we had an LB who could be relied upon to shoot the gaps, not miss tackles, and make plays in coverage. We simply do not have a LB that can do that (nor can the group as a whole) and we need to adapt.

I would gladly give up more yards if it meant more turnovers and more drive crushing sacks/pressures. I think the defense has the ability to do that, but NOT when we keep conservatively rushing 3 guys with a weak LB core. The defense is good but I think it can be more impactful and game changing. With this team, if we want to win, that's what we'll need.

 

[PSYclone22]

Ball control was huge. The multiple TE sets had an advantage for a bit but once teams figured it out our offense really become stagnant and predictable.

We had multiple tight end sets from 2018 on, teams didn't suddenly figure out how to deal with it in the back half of 2021.

We scored 31, 30, 38, 21, 48, and 13 (bowl) in the back half of 2021. Teams did not "figure out" our offense.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

We had multiple tight end sets from 2018 on, teams didn't suddenly figure out how to deal with it in the back half of 2021.

We scored 31, 30, 38, 21, 48, and 13 (bowl) in the back half of 2021. Teams did not "figure out" our offense.

You don't think our offense had become crazy predictable? Having two NFL TE's and RB's certainly helped mask things....

 

[isucy86]

My opinion on close losses this year

We need to recruit another field goal kicker who can make fields goals or at least push our current guy to get his act together and start making them. We have lost two games this year where a field goal kicker would have either out right won the game or at least tied it with a chance for us to score and win.

We should always aim to recruit better talent, but we are starting a freshman kicker. So hopefully he develops into a solid kicker with more game experience.

The Texas loss doesn't fall on Gilbert. You could blame OL. You could blame Dekker's TO's. You could blame Hutchinson's drop. Defensive errors, etc. We aren't doing enough as a TEAM to win games right now. And that includes the coaching staff.

The bye week comes at a good time for coaching staff to prep team to turn season around and become bowl eligible or become spoiler for OSU & TCU.

 

[Drew0311]

We should always aim to recruit better talent, but we are starting a freshman kicker. So hopefully he develops into a solid kicker with more game experience.

The Texas loss doesn't fall on Gilbert. You could blame OL. You could blame Dekker's TO's. You could blame Hutchinson's drop. Defensive errors, etc. We aren't doing enough as a TEAM to win games right now. And that includes the coaching staff.

The bye week comes at a good time for coaching staff to prep team to turn season around and become bowl eligible or become spoiler for OSU & TCU.

It does not fall on him. However, if he makes that field goal, the Kansas State field goals. We have an opportunity for two wins. It's not like we are putting him out there to hit 50 yard plus field goals. That would be understandable.

 

[Inthesystem]

I’m beating a dead horse but we’re not going to win many games with a -2 turnover margin. not even counting the multiple special teams mishaps.

 

[PSYclone22]

You don't think our offense had become crazy predictable? Having two NFL TE's and RB's certainly helped mask things....

Our offense is stale.

Stale offense is not why we're losing one score games. If our offense was producing at last year's stale end of year level we'd be 7-0 with maybe one game being a one-score game.

 

[DClone]

It does not fall on him. However, if he makes that field goal, the Kansas State field goals. We have an opportunity for two wins. It's not like we are putting him out there to hit 50 yard plus field goals. That would be understandable.

He didn't miss any field goals against K-State.

 

[PSYclone22]

He didn't miss any field goals against K-State.

See, he made them and we had an opportunity to win. He's technically correct.