COLUMN: What the Big 12 is banking on

[Gorm]

Someone brought up the point of what if playoffs expanded to 8 teams. If they expand it would only be to 8 teams and would not be until 2026 as it is locked at 4 until then. Not sure how this impacts what likely would happen, but might open up one playoff slot to a non big 4 conference team. Hard to tell once the conferences consolidate to 4 - 16 team mega conferences. Big Ten and Pac 12 media rights are opened back up before 2026 and you know those conferences will be fishing for big fish before then.

Any expansion would be discussed and confirmed long before 2026. Look for that conversation to heat up in the 2022 time frame, plenty of time for teams to make decisions.

Who knows what will happen in 2025 though. The ACC may never get their TV network, and by then cord cutting will have had a significant impact on the bloated Big10, and SEC. It wouldn't surprise me to see contraction, or the content providers wanting "eyeball" match ups. By then, 8 more years of our model will hopefully build some better cohesion within our conference.

 

[Gorm]

Just saw the Do's and Don'ts talking points the league handed out to Big 12 officials. The fact that that was needed at all tells me a lot.

That type of thing is far more common than you realize.

 

[CyForPresident]

I expect to see a PAC 12/ Big 12 merger in 2020-21. The PAC 12's GOR will be up at that point and they'll be looking to expand to get more money out of their terrible TV network.

8 teams from the Big 12 eventually go west to create a 20 team conference.

PAC 10 Division
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Cal
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Arizona
Arizona State

Big 12 Division
Utah
Colorado
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State

That would be a powerhouse conference and actually makes sense historically. Texas keeps the LHN, but the PAC 12 network gets more markets/money.

You only need 8 votes to disband the conference so it's certainly possible. West Virginia would likely end up in the ACC and Baylor goes to the AAC where it belongs.

 

[volclone]

To be fair, Mizzou won back to back division championships. They weren't terrible in football but a poop swastika derailed their football team. Their coach also sadly got cancer and that hurt them a lot. They just didn't seem to recover from those two things.

Their basketball wasn't terrible but then their coach Haith checked out in his final two seasons and never recruited anyone to carry on the team. He than left in the middle of the night for Tulsa and Mizzou picked a former alum instead of a more qualified candidate.

Nice revisionist history. Facts: 1) Mizzou was 4-5 riding a 4 game losing streak BEFORE the turmoil on campus. 2) Pinkle's terrible OC and inability to recruit a QB that panned out had more to do with their downfall than his cancer diagnosis (which is very sad). 3) The BB program was already on the downslide after the 2012-13 season...after Phil Pressey, etc., moved on. Haith got out of town a little over a year later, just before the NCAA sheriffs showed up.

The reality is after the "fools gold" couple of years winning the SEC East, Mizzou major sports have been an absolute dumpster fire. The fact they are sub .500 in FB and BB is about where most in the SEC believe they will be for a very long time. Mizzou fans who will be honest about it will tell you the bloom is off the SEC rose for them.

 

[NetflixAndClone]

Nice revisionist history. Facts: 1) Mizzou was 4-5 riding a 4 game losing streak BEFORE the turmoil on campus. 2) Pinkle's terrible OC and inability to recruit a QB that panned out had more to do with their downfall than his cancer diagnosis (which is very sad). 3) The BB program was already on the downslide after the 2012-13 season...after Phil Pressey, etc., moved on. Haith got out of town a little over a year later, just before the NCAA sheriffs showed up.

The reality is after the "fools gold" couple of years winning the SEC East, Mizzou major sports have been an absolute dumpster fire. The fact they are sub .500 in FB and BB is about where most in the SEC believe they will be for a very long time. Mizzou fans who will be honest about it will tell you the bloom is off the SEC rose for them.

I'll be honest I don't follow Mizzou or anything it was just what I saw on wiki. Regardless i was just trying to point out they had success when they first got to the SEC but they failed to adapt. I wish we could get Mizzou back to the big 12 even if they suck now just because I don't feel like they fit in with the SEC.

It's clear they put all their eggs in football and put basketball on the back burner. It's funny they came from have good football and basketball in the big 12 to being terrible in basketball and below average in football in the SEC.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Just saw the Do's and Don'ts talking points the league handed out to Big 12 officials. The fact that that was needed at all tells me a lot.

This sort of thing is incredibly common. The only telling fact about it is that it was leaked, not that it existed.

 

[harimad]

People seem to think there's only two ways this will go. 1) Texas/OU bolt, then everybody else bolts and the Big 12 is gone, or 2) Texas/OU stay, conference remains.

What about a third option, where the Big 12 decides to expand and Texas leaves because they're upset about the expansion. If Oklahoma stays, they're going to be the top dog most years with a clear path to the playoff if they don't trip up and they can keep the Red River Rivalry as a non-conference game. If everyone else stays, too, the Big 12 adds Houston to replace Texas, getting back to 10 in what is still a really great conference. Or maybe then the remaining schools or a streaming service would prefer the Big 12 at 12, so CIncy and BYU get added too.

If Texas leaves, I don't care as long as OU stays. Monetarily yeah, we would lose the attraction of Texas. But we could still make boatloads of cash with the remaining schools intact.

I remembebr She's All That too. And the reason Lainey Boggs was able to do what she did was because under those glasses, she was really pretty.

I'm sorry, but Houston is not Lainey Boggs. They cannot come even close to replacing UT.

 

[HoopsTournament]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-realignment-grant-of-rights-inevitable-death

Still, using that as a guide, who will have options, and who will be limited at best?

• Four options: Oklahoma, Texas
• Two options: Kansas, Oklahoma State, TCU
• One option: Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Tech, WVU
• No options: Kansas State

My recommendation for Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and West Virginia: be very good at football between now and 2024. That’s your best path to conference survival.

Disagree with Texas having 4 options. It might be fun to speculate, but their only option is the ACC. Saying otherwise completely ignores the LHN contract that says that ESPN will not allow them to be in a non-ESPN conference network. That eliminates Big 10 and Pac 12. And A&M will keep them out of the SEC. SEC has pretty much said that they will not expand in a state where they already have a team. However, ACC would take them in a second if Texas wanted to join, so although they have one option, they are in control.

As for OU, I cannot see them going to the Big 10 or ACC.

And there is no way in hell that Baylor or TCU will ever get into the Pac 12. Iowa State has a much better shot at the Pac 12 than those schools.

 

[simply1]

I expect to see a PAC 12/ Big 12 merger in 2020-21. The PAC 12's GOR will be up at that point and they'll be looking to expand to get more money out of their terrible TV network.

8 teams from the Big 12 eventually go west to create a 20 team conference.

PAC 10 Division
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Cal
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Arizona
Arizona State

Big 12 Division
Utah
Colorado
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State

That would be a powerhouse conference and actually makes sense historically. Texas keeps the LHN, but the PAC 12 network gets more markets/money.

You only need 8 votes to disband the conference so it's certainly possible. West Virginia would likely end up in the ACC and Baylor goes to the AAC where it belongs.

I'd be surprised if a private religious institution got in, and why would they not just cherry pick the conference?

 

[Bestaluckcy]

The PAC has really tied their future to the network. Who knows what could happen in 6 years. Not to mention the experiment the ACC is gambling. The important thing for Big 12 is to keep our troops in the fold because there will be an opportunity if we wait and then capitalize on it. Just need to survive all this media propaganda.

 

[CyBobby]

DING, DING, DING we have a winner. ESPN is nothing but a middleman who can now be cut out. The Big XII is heading this way the most / fastest and it probably scares the heck out of the evil mouse house.

I Agree the big 12 would be smart to do a deal with cable and satellite providers and cut the middlemen in this case espn OUT and just provide their own coverage on their own channels...............................................

Then it makes sense to stay at 10 members and maximize revenue Per School.

 

[CyBobby]

I'll be honest I don't follow Mizzou or anything it was just what I saw on wiki. Regardless i was just trying to point out they had success when they first got to the SEC but they failed to adapt. I wish we could get Mizzou back to the big 12 even if they suck now just because I don't feel like they fit in with the SEC.

It's clear they put all their eggs in football and put basketball on the back burner. It's funny they came from have good football and basketball in the big 12 to being terrible in basketball and below average in football in the SEC.

I agree to the "Wish we could get Mizzou back" sentiment...I really miss playing Mizzou and hellsbells I even enjoyed the trip down highway 63 to Columbia and Faurot Field for 30 years every time we played there....

I also miss playing Nebraska but thats for a completely different reason...

Go Cyclones

 

[ILikeCy]

I actually disagree with you there - I'd hazard that a large percentage of people that have SlingTV or PSVue do so primarily to have access to ESPN (and to a lesser extent the other sports channels) and those services are a compromise between a full cable package and completely cutting the cord. So ESPN is making more money than they would without Sling/Vue being an option.

I'm one of those people you describe. I cancelled my satellite service, and signed up for PSVue, only for the sports channels. However, that isn't new revenue for ESPN. It just transferred to another provider. The problem is that eventually as more people cut the cord, all they will have left are the people who actually want the sports packages. They won't get the benefit of all those extra people who have to pay for it on their satellite or cable bill even though they never watch sports. Eventually, the satellite and cable companies will tell ESPN that they can't continue to pay the rates they demand, because they don't have enough subscribers who care about it, so the bubble will start to burst.

 

[Judoka]

I'm one of those people you describe. I cancelled my satellite service, and signed up for PSVue, only for the sports channels. However, that isn't new revenue for ESPN. It just transferred to another provider. The problem is that eventually as more people cut the cord, all they will have left are the people who actually want the sports packages. They won't get the benefit of all those extra people who have to pay for it on their satellite or cable bill even though they never watch sports. Eventually, the satellite and cable companies will tell ESPN that they can't continue to pay the rates they demand, because they don't have enough subscribers who care about it, so the bubble will start to burst.

You're right, but revenue not lost is still better than revenue that is lost. For example I'm also someone who uses Vue (I tried Sling last year but overall like Vue better now that I've tried both) I plan on keeping it active from August-March, or 8 months, and cancelling over the summer. So at the $6 a month that's been quoted that means ESPN is getting $48/year from me as opposed to the $72/year they got when I had cable. That's a decrease, but $48 more than they'd be getting if Sling wasn't an option.

Honestly since we have a good radio duo in Walters & Heft (seriously, try listening to some other school's broadcasts and you'll realize how good we have it) I'd be totally fine with only having the radio broadcast if Sling/Vue weren't options.

 

[ChrisMWilliams]

I expect to see a PAC 12/ Big 12 merger in 2020-21. The PAC 12's GOR will be up at that point and they'll be looking to expand to get more money out of their terrible TV network.

8 teams from the Big 12 eventually go west to create a 20 team conference.

PAC 10 Division
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Cal
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Arizona
Arizona State

Big 12 Division
Utah
Colorado
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State

That would be a powerhouse conference and actually makes sense historically. Texas keeps the LHN, but the PAC 12 network gets more markets/money.

You only need 8 votes to disband the conference so it's certainly possible. West Virginia would likely end up in the ACC and Baylor goes to the AAC where it belongs.

If we don't get into the pooling of rights from all P-5 schools, this is my prediction too.

Pac-12 has eyeballs but not enough passionate fan bases, which is going to be more important in the future.

Big 12 has its obvious challenges.

In fact, I've heard this has been tossed around before.

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see the two "weakest" leagues pool their resources to become one monster.

 

[CTTB78]

What choice did they have when Boren announced they would explore expansion to the masses?

Agree that Boren forced Bowlsby's hand but who was in charge of the process? Did Bob really think he needed to interview 20 schools to keep Boren happy?

What schools did the ADs actually think had a chance? Maybe 6 of the schools on the list.

According JP, the input was only at the President level so Bob's 20 came from them?

 

[Bestaluckcy]

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see the two "weakest" leagues pool their resources to become one monster.

WHOO HOO! ISU moving to the "Big Monster" conference.

 

[isu83]

Disagree with Texas having 4 options. It might be fun to speculate, but their only option is the ACC. Saying otherwise completely ignores the LHN contract that says that ESPN will not allow them to be in a non-ESPN conference network. That eliminates Big 10 and Pac 12. And A&M will keep them out of the SEC. SEC has pretty much said that they will not expand in a state where they already have a team. However, ACC would take them in a second if Texas wanted to join, so although they have one option, they are in control.

As for OU, I cannot see them going to the Big 10 or ACC.

And there is no way in hell that Baylor or TCU will ever get into the Pac 12. Iowa State has a much better shot at the Pac 12 than those schools.

I think Texas's option is whatever they want it to be.

 

[isucy86]

You're right, but revenue not lost is still better than revenue that is lost. For example I'm also someone who uses Vue (I tried Sling last year but overall like Vue better now that I've tried both) I plan on keeping it active from August-March, or 8 months, and cancelling over the summer. So at the $6 a month that's been quoted that means ESPN is getting $48/year from me as opposed to the $72/year they got when I had cable. That's a decrease, but $48 more than they'd be getting if Sling wasn't an option.

Honestly since we have a good radio duo in Walters & Heft (seriously, try listening to some other school's broadcasts and you'll realize how good we have it) I'd be totally fine with only having the radio broadcast if Sling/Vue weren't options.

The revenue loss for ESPN and conference sports networks like BTN, SEC, etc. isn't people switching from cable/satellite to streaming services like PSVue/Sling. The threat to sports channels is cable/satellite offering skinny bundles. There are a lot of consumers who get enough sports programming from ABC/CBS/NBC and FOX and won't pay extra for sport channels.

 

[isucy86]

I expect to see a PAC 12/ Big 12 merger in 2020-21. The PAC 12's GOR will be up at that point and they'll be looking to expand to get more money out of their terrible TV network.

8 teams from the Big 12 eventually go west to create a 20 team conference.

PAC 10 Division
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Cal
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Arizona
Arizona State

Big 12 Division
Utah
Colorado
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State

That would be a powerhouse conference and actually makes sense historically. Texas keeps the LHN, but the PAC 12 network gets more markets/money.

You only need 8 votes to disband the conference so it's certainly possible. West Virginia would likely end up in the ACC and Baylor goes to the AAC where it belongs.

I am skeptical if the Big12/Pac12 combine that will result in a 20 team conference. The only way that happens is if per school annual revenue is maximized by more game inventory.

More likely, I think the merger results in a 14-16 team conference because that maximizes per school revenue. Just like it didn't make sense to add schools like Cincy, Houston, UCF, etc in the recent Big12 expansion exercise. There will be a cut off for including schools like ISU, KSU, Okie State, TT, WSU and Oregon State because of revenue potential/lesser school from state. WVU is excluded for geographic reasons and Baylor/TCU may be excluded because of their religious affiliation/revenue potential.

IMO the Pac12 would bring 10 schools with WSU and Oregon State omitted because Washington and Oregon are the more prominent universities in those states and the athletic programs at WSU and Oregon State are weaker. Utah might be borderline.

ISU's inclusion stands a better chance if BU and/or TCU are excluded because of their religious affiliation. Also does Texas politics make UT and TT a package deal.

In the end, over the next 6-7 years schools like Baylor, TCU, ISU, KSU, TT need to make sure their FB programs are competitive and there is strong fan support. Having a strong MBB team and other top 25 programs will help.