COLUMN: Why I like the OVER for ISU at 3.5

[ChrisMWilliams]

This seems way too easy to me, guys. That's kind of scary actually. What do you think?

http://cyclonefanatic.com/football/...-comes-to-isu-s-win-total-i-ll-take-the-over/

 

[CycloneWarning]

Yep - The team should have won 5 games last year. No way I am seeing less than five this year, and hopeful for six.

 

[BaxterClone]

Using a couple factors Phil Steele uses:
Teams that are net -3 in close games (7points or less) have same or better record 77% of the time the next year.
Teams that are -10+ in turnovers have a better record the following year 66% of the time.
Turnovers were so painful last year it hurts to type the word.

 

[BaxterClone]

When betting a game or an over under, it's also good to ask why/how does ISU only win 3 games or less? What could happen to cause that?
The over 3.5 is juiced even so $100 bet pays $100. So as long as you think it's more than 50% likely to happen it's worth a wager. How much more likely determines how much u should wager. Best way to come up with your own win total is to put a % likely to win the game by each game, add them all up and u have your win total.

 

[cyclones500]

Best way to come up with your own win total is to put a % likely to win the game by each game, add them all up and u have your win total.

Using that, mine comes to roughly 4.8 wins

 

[tejasclone]

We SHOULD have had 5-6 wins each of the last 3 years, too, but we continue to find new and creative ways to lose every time (a problem that was not unique to Paul Rhoads in ISU history, as we all know).

If we're going to turn those close "could haves" into "dids", Campbell will have inverted a lot of our historical normalcy in the process.

 

[NATEizKING]

Using that, mine comes to roughly 4.8 wins

That 0.0001% OU game really brings down the average.

 

[NetflixAndClone]

That 0.0001% OU game really brings down the average.

All I can say is what happened to the last highly ranked school from Oklahoma that came to Ames on a Weekday?

 

[jbindm]

If they get out of the gate at 2-2 through the first four games of the season then the over will look pretty good. Like CW, I think an "upset" over K State or Texas is a good possibility. But (also like CW) I worry about this team's lack of depth by November. They should beat Kansas, but if they're missing major contributors at that point in the season then it's no lock. They'll be playing a team that will probably have the Cyclones marked as one of their few legitimate chances at a conference win. Ultimately I think it could be a five, maybe six win season if everyone stays healthy. But that's a big if.

 

[weR138]

Somewhat related...does anyone know how well ISU has done covering vs. Iowa since '96? Too lazy to look myself.

 

[MatthiasWRNL]

I still have the feeling of 6 wins. We should have had 5-6 last year. Sure we lost some pieces, but I think we can attain that regardless.

 

[BaxterClone]

Last 20 matchups, ISU is 7-13 ATS vs Iowa. When betting this game and taking ISU, better to take the moneyline. You will be getting plus money and you want ISU to win anyway. ISU is 10-10 the last 20 vs Iowa.

 

[NickTheGreat]

Agree that the over on 3.5 seems too easy. Like every season, I look at the schedule and see 5 or 6 winnable games, with probably only 3 or so definite L's.

 

[Clark]

All I can say is what happened to the last highly ranked school from Oklahoma that came to Ames on a Weekday?

that school was not Oklahoma and that coach was not Bob Stoops. Nobody enjoys running it up more than "big game" Bob.

that said, the over is a pretty safe bet, though it wouldn't win you a ton of money in vegas.

 

[khardbored]

Perhaps a culture change will do the truck and a little bit of luck wouldn't hurt either.

 

[Clones8686]

I said this in your last thread about betting CW, but it seems the bets that are super obvious almost never go the way you expect them to. Which is scary because this seems like free money...

 

[VeloClone]

I said this in your last thread about betting CW, but it seems the bets that are super obvious almost never go the way you expect them to. Which is scary because this seems like free money...

I remember the carnage in Cybookie after the Drake game.

 

[DuckDynastyCy]

that school was not Oklahoma and that coach was not Bob Stoops. Nobody enjoys running it up more than "big game" Bob.

that said, the over is a pretty safe bet, though it wouldn't win you a ton of money in vegas.

Uh, you don't think Barry Switzer never ran up the score on anyone? He relished in it!

 

[twojman]

All I can say is what happened to the last highly ranked school from Oklahoma that came to Ames on a Weekday?

ISU had the same # of NFL players as that OSU squad and somehow we ended up 6-7 that season...

I would have felt more confident with the over if we had an OL coming into the season. Combine that with breaking in a new coach and 3.5 seems like a legit # from Vegas. I could see anywhere from 1-5 wins.